The divergence between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast Model widened again this week.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 2.3 Percent - April 5, 2018

  • The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 2.3 percent on April 5, down from 2.8 percent on April 2.
  • The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from 1.21 percentage points to 1.05 percentage points after yesterday's manufacturing release from the U.S. Census Bureau and yesterday's light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
  • The nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter growth declined from -0.65 percentage points to -0.72 percentage points after this morning's international trade release from the Census Bureau and the BEA.
  • The nowcast of first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 1.6 percent on April 2 to 1.3 percent this morning.

Nowcast Latest Forecast: 2.8 Percent - April 5, 2018

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2018:Q1 and 2.9% for 2018:Q2.

The nowcast for 2018:Q1 moved up by 0.1 percentage point. This increase was largely due to parameter revisions.

The nowcast for 2018:Q2 was broadly unchanged. The positive impact of parameter revisions and a positive surprise from the ISM Prices index were mostly offset by negative surprises from nonfarm payroll employment and the ISM Employment index.

Real Final Sales

The real final sales estimate is the true bottom-line estimate of the economy. It excludes changes in inventories which net to zero over time.

At 1.3% real final sales are close to the the bottom of the range for this entire series, having been as high as 4.1% on February 1.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock