The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Forecast inched slightly lower on May 3.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.0 percent on May 3, down from 4.1 percent on May 1. After yesterday's light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the nowcasts for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth declined from 3.3 percent and 9.2 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 8.1 percent respectively. The nowcasts inched back up to 3.1 percent and 8.7 percent after this morning's international trade release from the BEA and U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's manufacturing release from the Census Bureau.

Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts

I added a highlight in Yellow regarding the Blue Chip range.


I asked Pat Higgins for an explanation and he responded: "Each survey is published once a month (Blue Chip Financial Forecasts on the 1st Blue Chip Economic Indicators on the 10th). In the chart, the two sets of forecasts are combined. Also in the chart, the forecasts are aligned with the survey dates, which occur before the publication dates. There were 54 and 45 forecasters in the two surveys, respectively."

Assuming 4.0% is the over-under line, I am sticking with my "way under" estimate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow Forecast Dips Slightly: Baseline 1.8%, Real Final Sales 1.1%

For GDPNow, a strong factory report could not overtake weak housing and trade reports. Divergence with Nowcast widens.

GDPNow Real Final Sales Estimate Dives to 1.1%

Following today's retail sales numbers, the GDPNow forecast fell to 1.9% with real final sales at 1.1%

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.3%: Real Final Sales 1.3%

The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%.

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Remains 1.1%

GDPNow and Nowcast GDP estimates came out today. I believe the GDPNow estimate is closer to the right track.

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Dips to 1.6%

Poor housing reports and poor economic reports on durable goods and international trade took a toll on GDP estimates.

GDPNow Real Final Sales Forecast Slips to 0.9%

If you thought today's inventory build numbers would add to GDP estimates, you thought wrong.

GDPNow Forecast Slips Slightly Despite Retail Sales Rebound

Despite a rebound in retail Sales the GDPNow forecast slips to 1.9 percent. Real final sales are 0.9 percent.

GDPNow 4th Quarter Estimate Sinks to 2.8% from 3.3%: What Happened?

On Dec 19 the GDPNow model estimated fourth-quarter GDP at 3.3%. The forecast is now 2.8%. Let's review the reasons.

Pat Higgins Explains the Wild 5.4% GDPNow Forecast Made February 1

The GDPNow model forecast jumped to 5.4% on February 1, only to come crashing down the next day.