The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast rose to 3.3% from 2.8% on Friday. On the same data, the New York Fed Nowcast Model fell from 4.0% to 3.9%.

GDPNow Forecast: 3.3% - January 12, 2018

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Gdpnow Highlights

  • The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on January 12, up from 2.8 percent on January 10.
  • The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.8 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

​Nowcast Forecast: 3.9% - January 12, 2018

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NowcastHighlights

  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.9% for 2017:Q4 and 3.2% for 2018:Q1.
  • News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2017:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point and decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q1 by 0.2 percentage point.
  • A negative surprise from lower than expected retail sales accounted for most of the decrease.

​The Nowcast model had a small negative surprise on retail sales but GDPNow had a significant positive surprise on the same data.

Once again, note the volatility pf the GDPNow forecast to that of Nowcast.

As I have often stated, it's not the data itself that matters, it's what the data shows vs what the model predicted that matters.

Friday's reports spell that out in spades.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow Forecast Up Huge on Positive Economic Data

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast for 4th-Quarter GDP jumped strongly today on economic reports since November 19.

GDPNow Forecast Surges to 4.7%: Spread to Nowcast an Amazing 2.7 Percentage Pts

Following today's ISM and construction reports, the GDPNow forecast for 3rd-Quarter GDP rose to 4.7%. Nowcast is 2.0%.

GDPNow and Nowcast Converging (Opposite Direction Movement on Same Data)

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast models head towards convergence. This past week the models again moved in opposite directions on the same economic data.

GDPNow Forecast Dips Slightly to 1.7%, Nowcast Steady

Economic news took a tenth of a percent off the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts. The New York Fed Nowcast was stable.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.

GDPNow ISM Bounce Fades: Forecast Dips to 3.8%, Nowcast Remains 2.8%

Volatility remains the name of the game for GDPNow. Nonvolatility is the game for the New York Fed Nowcast.

GDPNow Forecast Unchanged at 1.8% Despite Dismal Economic Data

GDPNow and Nowcast forecasts have converged at just under 2.0% despite dismal economic data, especially manufacturing.