The latest GDPNow Forecast surged to 4.5% following recent economic reports.

Spread Widens

The spread between GDPNow and Nowcast is now a whopping 1.7 percentage points.

The most recent Nowcast report is from July 13.


Nowcast has hardly budged on any economic data. I do expect a jump when Nowcast reports on Friday, July 20.

The alleged margin of error on these reports is one percentage point, so if there is not a big jump in Nowcast on Friday, at least one of the reports is going to be well out of bounds.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow Forecast Surges to 3.0% on Retail Sales, Nowcast Flat at 2.4%

Once again the volatility of GDPNow vs Nowcast is in play. The former surged on the retail sales report.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.3%: Real Final Sales 1.3%

The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%.

GDPNow Forecast Slips Slightly Despite Retail Sales Rebound

Despite a rebound in retail Sales the GDPNow forecast slips to 1.9 percent. Real final sales are 0.9 percent.

GDPNow Estimate Tumbles on Weak Retail Sales

The GDPNow forecast fell from 2.3% to 1.8% this week on weak retail sales. The Nowcast estimate rose 0.1%.

Retail Sales Post a Solid Month Led by Autos and Amazon

Retail sales posted another strong month in June, led by autos, up 0.7% and nonstore retailers up 1.7%.

Nowcast GDP Forecast Surges, GDPNow Forecast is Down a Bit

The GDPNow and Nowcast GDP forecasts for the first quarter of 2020 converged quite a bit today.

Despite Robust Retail Sales, the GDPNow Forecast of Third-Quarter GDP Declined

On Friday, GDPNow lowered its third-quarter GDP estimate from 2.3% to 2.0%

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Remains 1.1%

GDPNow and Nowcast GDP estimates came out today. I believe the GDPNow estimate is closer to the right track.

GDPNow Forecast Surges to 4.7%: Spread to Nowcast an Amazing 2.7 Percentage Pts

Following today's ISM and construction reports, the GDPNow forecast for 3rd-Quarter GDP rose to 4.7%. Nowcast is 2.0%.