The latest GDPNow Forecast surged to 4.5% following recent economic reports.

Spread Widens

The spread between GDPNow and Nowcast is now a whopping 1.7 percentage points.

The most recent Nowcast report is from July 13.

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Nowcast has hardly budged on any economic data. I do expect a jump when Nowcast reports on Friday, July 20.

The alleged margin of error on these reports is one percentage point, so if there is not a big jump in Nowcast on Friday, at least one of the reports is going to be well out of bounds.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock