The GDPNow to Nowcast spread is the widest in history.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 4.7%— September 4, 2018

>The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.7 percent on September 4, up from 4.1 percent on August 30. The nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.0 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, to 3.6 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, after this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for August—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.18 to 1.14 after the ISM report this morning.

Nowcast Latest Forecast: 2.0%— August 31, 2018

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GDPNow vs. Nowcast

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The inventory contribution to GDP in the GDPNow model is 2.1% That exceeds the entire estimate of Nowcast.

The spread is a whopping 2.7 percentage points, the largest in history.

At least one of these models is seriously wrong.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Nowcast GDP Forecast Surges, GDPNow Forecast is Down a Bit

The GDPNow and Nowcast GDP forecasts for the first quarter of 2020 converged quite a bit today.

GDPNow Forecast Rises, Nowcast Dips on Same Economic Data

On Friday, the GDPNow and Nowcast models updated their 4th quarter GDP forecasts. One model rose, the other fell.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

Nowcast GDP Estimate 1 Percentage Point Higher Than GDPNow

Following Friday's jobs report the GDPNow forecast slid from 3.2% to 2.9%.

GDPNow Forecast Sinks on ISM and Construction Reports

The GDPNow forecast fell to 1.7% on September 3 following weak construction and ISM reports.

Massive 1.8 Percentage Point Spread Between GDPNow and Nowcast: What's Going On?

GDPNow estimates second-quarter GDP at 4.7%. The FRBNY Nowcast estimates 3.9%. Why the discrepancy?

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

4th Quarter Forecast: Nowcast 3.2% vs GDPNow 3.3% (Down from 4.5% on Nov. 1)

Following the ISM manufacturing report, the GDPNow model upped its 4th quarter GDP forecast from 2.9% to 4.5%. Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast weighed in with a 3.2% forecast. Also today, GDPNow revised its forecast to 3.3%.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.