Following dismal economic reports, the GDPnow model forecast is -42.8%.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -42.8 percent on May 15, down from -34.9 percent on May 8. After this week's data releases from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -33.9 percent and -62.8 percent, respectively, to -43.6 percent and -69.4 percent, respectively.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

It's important to know this is an annualized number. The actual decline will be aout 1/4 of the headline number. Even still, expect a new record.

No V-Shaped Recovery

As noted earlier today Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years

And  Retail Sales Plunge Way More Than Expected

Helicopter Drop

In response to the crumbling economy, the Fed is promoting a helicopter drop of money. 

For details, please see Panic Sets In: Fed Promotes More Free Money


GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Remains 1.1%

GDPNow and Nowcast GDP estimates came out today. I believe the GDPNow estimate is closer to the right track.

GDPNow ISM Bounce Fades: Forecast Dips to 3.8%, Nowcast Remains 2.8%

Volatility remains the name of the game for GDPNow. Nonvolatility is the game for the New York Fed Nowcast.

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.3%: Real Final Sales 1.3%

The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%.

GDPNow Forecast Up Huge on Positive Economic Data

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast for 4th-Quarter GDP jumped strongly today on economic reports since November 19.

GDPNow vs Nowcast: Bit of Convergence but Inventory Problem Looms

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast came out yesterday, the New York Fed Nowcast today.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 1.3 Percent: One Heck of an Inventory Adjustment

The GDPNow and Nowcast forecasts are in alignment but the details and implications are not the same.