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Following dismal economic reports, the GDPnow model forecast is -42.8%.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -42.8 percent on May 15, down from -34.9 percent on May 8. After this week's data releases from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -33.9 percent and -62.8 percent, respectively, to -43.6 percent and -69.4 percent, respectively.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

It's important to know this is an annualized number. The actual decline will be aout 1/4 of the headline number. Even still, expect a new record.

No V-Shaped Recovery

As noted earlier today Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years

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