by Mish

The FRBNY Nowcast Modelinched up to 2.96% from 2.83% but rounding makes it appears as a 0.2% increase.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.0 percent on March 24, up from 0.9 percent on March 16. The forecast for first-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 7.3 percent to 7.8 percent after this morning’s durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth increased from –0.87 percentage points to –0.77 percentage points after last Friday’s industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board.

FRBNY Nowcast Latest forecast: 1.0 percent — March 24, 2017

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 3.0% for 2017:Q1 and 2.7% for 2017:Q2.
  • News from this week’s data releases had a small positive impact on the nowcasts for both quarters, driven by new home sales data and the advance durable goods report.
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So here we are with a full 2 percentage point gap between the forecasts with an alleged margin of error for each of 1 percentage point.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

Divergence Between GDPNow and FRBNY Nowcast Hits Two Full Percentage Points

Since February 24, a string of bad economic reports drove the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1st quarter GDP from 2.5% to 1.2%

Discrepancy Between GDPNow and Nowcast is Two Percentage Points Once Again

In the past week, the GDPNow Model declined by 0.2 percentage points. The Nowcast Model for first quarter GDP inched down by 0.1 percentage points.

Second Quarter GDP Forecasts Inching Towards Convergence Around Two Percent

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Nowcast forecast today. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast was updated on July 14 and again on July 19.

GDPNow vs. Nowcast Update

Both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP model forecasts today. There was little change in either.

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 0.9%: Divergence with Nowcast Hits 2.3 Percentage Points – Why?

The Fed hiked today, smack in the face of an Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast of 0.9 percent.

GDPNow, Nowcast Divergence Remains One Percentage Point

In response to poor economic data this week, both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the FRBNY Nowcast Model reduced estimates by about 0.3 percentage points.

GDPNow 1st Quarter Estimate Dips to 1.2%, FRBNY Nowcast 3.1%: One Model is Seriously Wrong

The Atlanta Fed GDPNOw Model for 1st quarter GDP dipped once again today and now sits at 1.2% as of March 9.