The final GDPNow estimate for first-quarter GDP was -1.0%. 

Yesterday, the BEA's first estimate if first-quarter GDP was -4.8%, a huge miss for the model.

Looking ahead, the model is off to a bad start for the second quarter.

Latest estimate: -12.1 percent — April 30, 2020

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -12.1 percent on April 30. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 29 was -4.8 percent, 3.8 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on April 28.

Nowcast Wildly Optimistic

Nowcast Wildly Optimistic 2020-04-30

The New York Fed Nowcast model estimates a wildly optimist -7.79% for second-quarter GDP with -0.4% for the full year. 

Both estimates are ridiculous.

The Blue Chip Consensus

Judging from the first chart, the Blue Chip estimate is about -24%. That a more realistic number. 

Everyone's Guessing, Even the Fed: How Deep the Recession?


On April 8, I commented Everyone's Guessing, Even the Fed: How Deep the Recession?

If you are looking for guesses, here's another one: U.S. GDP will contract 30% in second quarter, 5% in 2020

What's Next for America?

For a 20-point discussion of what to expect, please see Nothing is Working Now: What's Next for America?

No V-Shaped Recovery

Here's the correct viewpoint: The Covid-19 Recession Will Be Deeper Than the Great Financial Crisis.

Simply put, a quick return to business as usual is not in the cards.

Inflation or Deflation?

Meanwhile, the debate over inflation or deflation continues. 

Will it be Inflation or Deflation? 

If you believe the answer is inflation, then you do not understand the importance of credit and demand shocks. Click on the link for discussion.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow Initial Estimate of 1st-Quarter GDP: 0.3 Percent

The GDPNow initial forecast for 1st-quarter 2019 GDP is a minuscule 0.3%.

Increasingly Confident GDPNow Estimate Way Too High

On Monday, following construction spending and ISM reports, GDPNow upped its estimate of second-quarter GDP from 2.7% to 3.0%.

Tracking GDPNow Forecasts vs. Reality: What About that Initial 2nd Quarter Estimate?

On May 1, the GDPNow Model came up with an initial forecast of 4.3% for second quarter GDP.

GDPNow 4th Quarter Estimate Sinks to 2.8% from 3.3%: What Happened?

On Dec 19 the GDPNow model estimated fourth-quarter GDP at 3.3%. The forecast is now 2.8%. Let's review the reasons.

Massive 1.8 Percentage Point Spread Between GDPNow and Nowcast: What's Going On?

GDPNow estimates second-quarter GDP at 4.7%. The FRBNY Nowcast estimates 3.9%. Why the discrepancy?

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

Here We Go Again: GDPNow Projects 4.1% GDP

At the start of every quarter the Atlanta Fed model typically projects wildly high GDP estimates that drop over time.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

Six GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Wednesday, I asked a handful of bloggers and economic writers their estimate for first quarter GDP.