GDPNow Latest Forecast: 3.8% - July 6, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on July 6, down from 4.1 percent on July 2. Since the last GDPNow update on Monday, July 2, the nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth have declined from 2.9 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, to 2.7 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. These declines more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 0.62 percentage points to 0.70 percentage points after this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Nowcast Latest Forecast: 3.8% - July 6, 2018

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Volatility Comparison

As GDPNow continues its volatile trend the New York Fed Nowcast shows virtually no movement on anything.

For a discussion of the GDPNow ISM bounce, please see "Dynamic Factor" Boosts GDPNow Following ISM: Email Discussion With Pat Higgins.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow Forecast Dips Slightly to 1.7%, Nowcast Steady

Economic news took a tenth of a percent off the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts. The New York Fed Nowcast was stable.

Another GDPNow ISM Spike Fades

On Feb 1, the GDPNow forecast jumped to 5.4% after an ISM report. The bounce collapsed. The same happened on March 1.

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

GDPNow Forecast Rises, Nowcast Dips on Same Economic Data

On Friday, the GDPNow and Nowcast models updated their 4th quarter GDP forecasts. One model rose, the other fell.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +2.8% vs. New York Fed Nowcast +1.2%

Following today’s retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.

GDPNow Dives Following Jobs, ISM Report: Little Reaction in Nowcast

A volatility difference between the GDP models is again in play. GDPNow declined 0.5 PP to 2.7% while Nowcast rose 0.1.

GDPNow vs Nowcast: Little Change From Week Ago, 3.9% vs 2.8%

From a week ago, the GDP forecasts moved little on the economic news. Nowcast was unchanged. GDPNow rose 0.1 pp to 3.9%.

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Remains 1.1%

GDPNow and Nowcast GDP estimates came out today. I believe the GDPNow estimate is closer to the right track.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.