The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast Model both rose compared to a week ago.

GDPNow 4th-Quarter Forecast:3.3% —December 14, 2017

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  • The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on December 14, up from 2.9 percent on December 8.
  • The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.2 percent after yesterday's Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nowcast 4th-Quarter Forecast: 4.0% — December 14, 2017

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  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.0% for 2017:Q4 and 3.1% for 2018:Q1.
  • News from this week's data releases increased the nowcast for 2017:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point and left the nowcast for 2018:Q1 broadly unchanged.
  • Small negative surprises from industrial production and capacity utilization data were offset by the positive impact of data revisions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock