The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast Model both rose compared to a week ago.

GDPNow 4th-Quarter Forecast:3.3% —December 14, 2017

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  • The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on December 14, up from 2.9 percent on December 8.
  • The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.2 percent after yesterday's Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nowcast 4th-Quarter Forecast: 4.0% — December 14, 2017

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  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.0% for 2017:Q4 and 3.1% for 2018:Q1.
  • News from this week's data releases increased the nowcast for 2017:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point and left the nowcast for 2018:Q1 broadly unchanged.
  • Small negative surprises from industrial production and capacity utilization data were offset by the positive impact of data revisions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow, Nowcast Near Convergence in 4th Quarter GDP Estimates

Following months of wide differences between GDP forecast models, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast models are in near convergence at 3.3% and 3.2% respectively.

Nowcast GDP Estimate 1 Percentage Point Higher Than GDPNow

Following Friday's jobs report the GDPNow forecast slid from 3.2% to 2.9%.

4th Quarter Forecast: Nowcast 3.2% vs GDPNow 3.3% (Down from 4.5% on Nov. 1)

Following the ISM manufacturing report, the GDPNow model upped its 4th quarter GDP forecast from 2.9% to 4.5%. Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast weighed in with a 3.2% forecast. Also today, GDPNow revised its forecast to 3.3%.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.

Nowcast Ends with 3.9% 4th-Quarter GDP forecast, 1st Quarter at 3.1%

Nowcast does its final forecast on the day GDP comes out. It concludes it's 4th-quarter forecast at 3.9%.

GDPNow 4th Quarter Estimate Sinks to 2.8% from 3.3%: What Happened?

On Dec 19 the GDPNow model estimated fourth-quarter GDP at 3.3%. The forecast is now 2.8%. Let's review the reasons.

1st Quarter GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Friday, April 28, the BEA will release its preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP.