by Mish

The wide divergence between models remains at one full percentage point.

GDPNow Forecast: 2.9 percent — June 16, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.9 percent on June 16, down from 3.2 percent on June 14. The forecast for second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 1.8 percent to 0.4 percent after this morning’s housing starts release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter growth declined from -0.23 percentage points to -0.34 percentage points after yesterday’s Import/Export Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Nowcast Forecast: 2.9 percent — June 16, 2017

  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2017:Q2 and 1.5% for 2017:Q3.
  • News from this week’s data releases reduced the nowcast for Q2 by 0.4 percentage point and for Q3 by 0.3 percentage point.
  • The decrease in the nowcast was driven mainly by negative surprises from housing and retail sales data that were only partly offset by positive surprises from surveys and manufacturing data.

Divergence One Percentage Point

Image placeholder title

Both estimates are way too high.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Discrepancy Between GDPNow and Nowcast is Two Percentage Points Once Again

In the past week, the GDPNow Model declined by 0.2 percentage points. The Nowcast Model for first quarter GDP inched down by 0.1 percentage points.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 0.9%: Divergence with Nowcast Hits 2.3 Percentage Points – Why?

The Fed hiked today, smack in the face of an Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast of 0.9 percent.

Nowcast, GDPNow Diverge Widely Again: What Happened?

After converging, the gap between the GDPNow Model forecast and the FRBNY Nowcast model has widened again.

Divergence Between GDPNow and FRBNY Nowcast Hits Two Full Percentage Points

Since February 24, a string of bad economic reports drove the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1st quarter GDP from 2.5% to 1.2%

Gap Between Nowcast and GDPNow Narrows to 1.9 Percentage Points: Or Does It? What Happened?

On Friday, the FRBNY Nowcast estimate for first quarter GDP dipped from 3.2% to 2.8%.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.

GDPNow vs. Nowcast Update

Both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP model forecasts today. There was little change in either.

Investigating Curious Anomalies in GDPNow and Nowcast GDP Estimates

As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed GDFPNow model for the second-quarter GDP stood at 3.4%. In contrast, the FRBNY Nowcast report was 2.2%.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.