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GDPNow Forecast: 3.3 Percent — November 9, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on November 9, unchanged from November 3. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth inched down from -0.03 percentage points to -0.06 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nowcast Forecast: 3.3 Percent — November 10, 2017

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Neither model changed much in the past week.

Inventory rebounding following the hurricanes contributed to reported growth. Consumers had to tap savings to make repairs. Payback is likely in the first quarter.

There is no economic benefit to this. If there was, Puerto Rico would be booming.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock