GDPNow Forecast: 3.3 Percent — November 9, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on November 9, unchanged from November 3. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth inched down from -0.03 percentage points to -0.06 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nowcast Forecast: 3.3 Percent — November 10, 2017

Image placeholder title


Neither model changed much in the past week.

Inventory rebounding following the hurricanes contributed to reported growth. Consumers had to tap savings to make repairs. Payback is likely in the first quarter.

There is no economic benefit to this. If there was, Puerto Rico would be booming.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow and Nowcast 4th-Quarter GDP Estimates Near Convergence: 2.7% vs. 2.6%

The GDPNow and Nowcast reports are near convergence with surprisingly little volatility and spread vs past history.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

GDPNow and Nowcast Converging (Opposite Direction Movement on Same Data)

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast models head towards convergence. This past week the models again moved in opposite directions on the same economic data.

GDPNow 4th Quarter Estimate Sinks to 2.8% from 3.3%: What Happened?

On Dec 19 the GDPNow model estimated fourth-quarter GDP at 3.3%. The forecast is now 2.8%. Let's review the reasons.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

GDPNow vs Nowcast: Bit of Convergence but Inventory Problem Looms

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast came out yesterday, the New York Fed Nowcast today.

4th Quarter GDP Estimates: Nowcast 1.8%; GDPNow 2.5%

Apologies for posting late today. Was in Valley of Fire State Park today, and the light was too good to take a break for posting.

Investigating Curious Anomalies in GDPNow and Nowcast GDP Estimates

As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed GDFPNow model for the second-quarter GDP stood at 3.4%. In contrast, the FRBNY Nowcast report was 2.2%.

4th Quarter Forecast: Nowcast 3.2% vs GDPNow 3.3% (Down from 4.5% on Nov. 1)

Following the ISM manufacturing report, the GDPNow model upped its 4th quarter GDP forecast from 2.9% to 4.5%. Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast weighed in with a 3.2% forecast. Also today, GDPNow revised its forecast to 3.3%.