The GDPNow Forecast took another dive today.

Latest forecast: 1.9 percent — March 14, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 1.9 percent on March 14, down from 2.5 percent on March 9. After yesterday's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.2 percent to 1.4 percent.

Real Final Sales

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Real Final Sales is the bottom-line estimate of GDP. That GDPNow forecast sits at 1.1%. On February 1, it was 4.1% with the Nowcast at a whopping 5.4%.

At that time I said "Take the under, way under" (in reference to a sports betting over-under line).

I believe GDPNow has messed up ISM modeling. I discussed this at least twice before, most recently on March 7 in Another GDPNow ISM Spike Fades where I shared some Emails with Pat Higgins, creator of GDPNow.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Remains 1.1%

GDPNow and Nowcast GDP estimates came out today. I believe the GDPNow estimate is closer to the right track.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.3%: Real Final Sales 1.3%

The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%.

GDPNow Forecast Drops Slightly to 4.0%: Real Final Sales Estimate is 3.3%

The GDPNow forecast is 4.0, down from 4.1% on May 1.

GDPNow Forecast Dips Slightly: Baseline 1.8%, Real Final Sales 1.1%

For GDPNow, a strong factory report could not overtake weak housing and trade reports. Divergence with Nowcast widens.

GDPNow Real Final Sales Forecast Slips to 0.9%

If you thought today's inventory build numbers would add to GDP estimates, you thought wrong.

GDPNow Forecast Slips Slightly Despite Retail Sales Rebound

Despite a rebound in retail Sales the GDPNow forecast slips to 1.9 percent. Real final sales are 0.9 percent.

GDPNow Estimate Tumbles on Weak Retail Sales

The GDPNow forecast fell from 2.3% to 1.8% this week on weak retail sales. The Nowcast estimate rose 0.1%.

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Dips to 1.6%

Poor housing reports and poor economic reports on durable goods and international trade took a toll on GDP estimates.

Nowcast GDP Estimate 1 Percentage Point Higher Than GDPNow

Following Friday's jobs report the GDPNow forecast slid from 3.2% to 2.9%.