The latest GDPNow forecast is 2.6%, down from and 3.2% on February 16, 4.0% on February 2, and 5.4% on February 1.

  • After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators and durable manufacturing reports from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of the contributions of real nonresidential equipment investment and real inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.45 percentage points and 1.20 percentage points, respectively, to 0.37 percentage points and 0.95 percentage points, respectively.
  • The nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth declined from 0.6 percent on February 16 to -4.5 percent on February 26 after housing market releases from the Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors.

The previous report was on February 16, but GDPNow posts intermediate points on release dates.

Evolution of the Quarter

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The previous report was on February 16. Intermediate effects from February 21 and 26 were posted today.

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Real Final Sales

Real final sales are the true measure of GDP. Fluctuations in inventory balance out over time.

Inventory contributes a full percentage point to the GDPNow first-quarter estimate of 2.6%

If we get another bad retail sales report, we can see under 2% GDP, with real final sales close at or below 1%.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow Forecast Dips Slightly: Baseline 1.8%, Real Final Sales 1.1%

For GDPNow, a strong factory report could not overtake weak housing and trade reports. Divergence with Nowcast widens.

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Remains 1.1%

GDPNow and Nowcast GDP estimates came out today. I believe the GDPNow estimate is closer to the right track.

GDPNow Real Final Sales Forecast Slips to 0.9%

If you thought today's inventory build numbers would add to GDP estimates, you thought wrong.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.3%: Real Final Sales 1.3%

The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%.

GDPNow Forecast Drops Slightly to 4.0%: Real Final Sales Estimate is 3.3%

The GDPNow forecast is 4.0, down from 4.1% on May 1.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

GDPNow Real Final Sales Estimate Dives to 1.1%

Following today's retail sales numbers, the GDPNow forecast fell to 1.9% with real final sales at 1.1%

GDPNow Forecast Dips Slightly to 1.7%, Nowcast Steady

Economic news took a tenth of a percent off the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts. The New York Fed Nowcast was stable.

GDPNow Forecast Rises, Nowcast Dips on Same Economic Data

On Friday, the GDPNow and Nowcast models updated their 4th quarter GDP forecasts. One model rose, the other fell.