The GDPNow forecast continues its trend of "falling like a rock" over the course of a quarter. Meanwhile, "I am a Rock" best describes the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) Nowcast.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 1.8 Percent - March 23, 2018

  • The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 1.8 percent on March 23, unchanged from March 16.
  • After this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 5.8 percent to 6.2 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.72 percentage points to 0.66 percentage points.
  • The nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from –3.1 percent to –1.6 percent after Wednesday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors, but fell back to –2.4 percent after this morning's releases on new-home sales and construction prices from the Census Bureau.

Nowcast Latest Forecast: 1.8 Percent - March 23, 2018

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  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.9% for 2018:Q1 and 3.0% for 2018:Q2.
  • News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for both quarters by 0.2 percentage point.
  • A positive surprise from manufacturers' inventories and the positive impact of data revisions accounted for the increase.

Musical Tribute

Take the GDPNow forecast as a reasonable over-under bet. The Nowcast seems way too high.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow Forecast Dips Slightly: Baseline 1.8%, Real Final Sales 1.1%

For GDPNow, a strong factory report could not overtake weak housing and trade reports. Divergence with Nowcast widens.

GDPNow Real Final Sales Estimate Dives to 1.1%

Following today's retail sales numbers, the GDPNow forecast fell to 1.9% with real final sales at 1.1%

GDPNow Real Final Sales Forecast Slips to 0.9%

If you thought today's inventory build numbers would add to GDP estimates, you thought wrong.

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Dips to 1.6%

Poor housing reports and poor economic reports on durable goods and international trade took a toll on GDP estimates.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.3%: Real Final Sales 1.3%

The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%.

GDPNow Forecast Drops Slightly to 4.0%: Real Final Sales Estimate is 3.3%

The GDPNow forecast is 4.0, down from 4.1% on May 1.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

GDPNow ISM Bounce Fades: Forecast Dips to 3.8%, Nowcast Remains 2.8%

Volatility remains the name of the game for GDPNow. Nonvolatility is the game for the New York Fed Nowcast.

Despite Robust Retail Sales, the GDPNow Forecast of Third-Quarter GDP Declined

On Friday, GDPNow lowered its third-quarter GDP estimate from 2.3% to 2.0%