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The gap between the GDPNow and Nowcast Third-Quarter GDP estimates widened slightly to 1.9 percentage points.

The latest estimates are 4.2% for GDPNow on October 10 and 2.3% for Nowcast on October 12.

The inventory contribution for GDPNow is a whopping 2.2 percentage points, with real final sales at 2.0%. Real final sales is the bottom line GDP estimate. Inventory adjustments balance out over time.

Nowcast does not break out inventory contribution.

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At least one of these models is way off base.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock