The gap between the GDPNow and Nowcast Third-Quarter GDP estimates widened slightly to 1.9 percentage points.

The latest estimates are 4.2% for GDPNow on October 10 and 2.3% for Nowcast on October 12.

The inventory contribution for GDPNow is a whopping 2.2 percentage points, with real final sales at 2.0%. Real final sales is the bottom line GDP estimate. Inventory adjustments balance out over time.

Nowcast does not break out inventory contribution.

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At least one of these models is way off base.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow vs Nowcast: Bit of Convergence but Inventory Problem Looms

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast came out yesterday, the New York Fed Nowcast today.

Huge Difference Between GDPNow and Nowcast Models

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast GDP models once again are wildly different.

GDPNow vs. Nowcast Update

Both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP model forecasts today. There was little change in either.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

GDPNow, Nowcast Near Convergence in 4th Quarter GDP Estimates

Following months of wide differences between GDP forecast models, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast models are in near convergence at 3.3% and 3.2% respectively.

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

GDPNow Forecast Up Huge on Positive Economic Data

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast for 4th-Quarter GDP jumped strongly today on economic reports since November 19.

Nowcast, GDPNow Diverge Widely Again: What Happened?

After converging, the gap between the GDPNow Model forecast and the FRBNY Nowcast model has widened again.

Dueling Forecasts: GDPNow 4.2% vs Nowcast 1.8%

For the first quarter, the initial GDPNow forecast was 2.3% on January 30, 2017. The GDPNow forecast spiked quickly to 3.4% then crashed to a final estimate of 0.2% on April 27.