by Mish

The discrepancy between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and FRBNY Nowcast model forecasts remains large.

GDPNow 4th Quarter 2016 Forecast: 2.8% — January 13, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on January 13, down from 2.9 percent on January 10. The forecast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth ticked down from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 Forecast: 1.9% — January 13, 2017

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2016:Q4 and at 2.1% for 2017:Q1.
  • This week’s news had little impact on the 2016:Q4 nowcast and a small positive impact on the 2017:Q1 Nowcast.
  • Retail sales data moved the 2017:Q1 Nowcast up by 0.2 percentage point.

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Nowcast 1st Quarter 2016 Forecast: 2.1% — January 13, 2017

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A 0.9 Percentage point difference for 4th quarter GDP looms large. Soon we will find out who is correct, well sort of.

I say “sort of” because GDP revisions can go back more than a decade. And there are always at least two updates (three reports) for the current quarter.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +2.8% vs. New York Fed Nowcast +1.2%

Following today’s retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.

GDPNow vs Nowcast: Bit of Convergence but Inventory Problem Looms

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast came out yesterday, the New York Fed Nowcast today.

GDPNow, Nowcast Divergence Remains One Percentage Point

In response to poor economic data this week, both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the FRBNY Nowcast Model reduced estimates by about 0.3 percentage points.

Nowcast, GDPNow Diverge Widely Again: What Happened?

After converging, the gap between the GDPNow Model forecast and the FRBNY Nowcast model has widened again.

GDPNow 3rd Quarter Forecast Dips to 3%; Nowcast Postponed, I Take a Stab

It’s curious the New York Fed has a blackout on its GDP Model but the Atlanta Fed doesn’t.