Tonight’s bombshell comes from Eurointelligence. Had it come from from a tabloid, I likely would not have believed it.
As I have commented before, I nearly always disagree with Eurointelligence goals. However, I have tremendous respect for their honesty and their reporting of the situation at hand.
From Eurointelligence, emphasis mine
We are learning that CDU MPs demanded Angela Merkel’s resignation ahead of the last-minute agreement with Horst Seehofer. Bild reports that a group of 160 CDU and CSU MPs, those organised in the medium-sized enterprise lobby, had threaten to vote in favour of Seehofer’s proposal, which is what prompted Merkel to cave in and accept a compromise she herself rejected earlier. Merkel was told that if it came to a vote that her position would not have the support by the majority of the Bundestag group. The message to her was: if you don’t agree, we will force an agreement. Her position would have become untenable at that point.
As we know one of the reporters involved, we are confident of the accuracy of the report. Where we disagree was the assessment that Merkel got herself a good deal. She didn’t. Her goal was to avoid a decision to the detriment of third countries. Judging by Austria’s reaction yesterday, it is clear that she failed on this point.
The decision by CDU MPs to push Merkel to the brink on Monday shows as that the true power in German politics is no longer the executive branch, but parliament and that Merkel’s hold over German politics is slipping. We don’t want to predict when it ends. Donald Trump’s threats might persuade the Germans not to change their leader at this time. But we are clearly in a situation where Merkel is no longer in full command. That’s a step change from the previous 12 years.
The compromise that was agreed has already had its first ripple effects. Sebastian Kurz [Austria’s Chancellor] reacted strongly to the German decision, on which he was not consulted. He said that Austria was now considering tightening border controls at the Brenner, the main gateway between Italy and Austria, and between northern and southern Europe. Kurz also promised that Austria would not agree a deal to the detriment of the country, thus effectively ruling out an agreement on secondary migration, as requested by the Germans.
Der Standard reports that the Austrian government will wait and see for the German government to implement the compromise before taking any concrete measures, but the Austrian government is already planning to fortify its southern border to Italy and Slovenia. The thinking in Austria is: the best way to defend oneself against Germany sending back refugees is to not let them in from the south.
It is interesting that Matteo Salvini, Italy’s interior minister, sees Austria’s threat to close the border as positive because it means that no refugees will come back that have already gone north. He said Italy can only win if the borders close. Salvini had previously called for the dismantling of Schengen. In any case, it is becoming clear to us that the German decision will have massive implications for the Schengen passport-free travel zone, which is about to became an outright instrument of racism, as people with a non-white skin colour will be subjected to regular checks.
We fully agree with a very strong editorial by Michael Volker in Der Standard who describes the EU as an axis of the bad-will, an axis of madness, chaos and hysteria. The origin of this madness lies in Germany, and is spreading fast throughout Europe. It is a based on lies, like the “fiction of non-immigration” – a legal term that allows Germany to pretend that refugees who have crossed the border do not legally exist if they are rounded up in camps. This agreement is going to be totally unworkable, Volker writes, and everybody knows this. The same goes for extra-territorial camps, agreed at last week’s summit – another fiction. He concludes that the EU has turned into a caricature.
Wow
I thought it was Germany’s president that pressured Seehofer and Merkel into an agreement to keep Merkel in power.
I missed that call.
I did not miss Merkel’s hypocrisy.
If Merkel at all believed in supporting refugees, she would have resigned and issued a statement as to why.
Instead, just to stay in power, she accepted a deal that cannot possibly work.
I blasted her hypocrisy just four hours ago in Merkel’s “Common Goal” Hypocrisy Exposed: Deal With CSU Still Not Final.
The interesting aspect in this mess is SPD has to agree with this border compromise, exactly as I pointed out.
SPD Hypocrisy Coming Up
The hypocrisy spotlight now shifts to the SPD.
It will be amusing to see what logic SPD uses to agree to send migrants back to Austria and to refugee camps in Africa when no African nation is in support of the idea.
Spotlight SPD
DW has an interesting article on SPD’s Dilemma.
In late 2015, SPD leaders including now-Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Ex-Foreign Minister and former Party Chairman Sigmar Gabriel and Secretary-General Lars Klingbeil took to social media to portray the zones as “gigantic prisons” and “mass camps in no man’s land.”
“The SPD has won the day,” Gabriel wrote on Twitter back then. “Transit zones are off the table. No house arrest, no fences.”
Early Wednesday morning, the SPD leadership will report on their meeting with conservatives to the Social Democrat parliamentary group. The left wing of the party, meanwhile, has already begun voicing its dissatisfaction with the deal.
“The SPD has clearly said no to closed camps,” the influential head of the Social Democrats’ youth wing, Kevin Kühnert, told German television. “It doesn’t matter whether they’re in North Africa, on the external border of Europe or in Passau.”
As it is, the SPD is struggling to recover from an internal split over whether it should renew its coalition with Merkel’s conservatives, an issue on which roughly a third of its members disagree with the party leadership. Other influential figures including Klingbeil have also said that the Social Democrats will not accept any “closed camps.”
Sinking Boat
So here we are. SPD is in the same sinking boat with Merkel. Will SPD prove to be as hypocritical?
At this point is does not matter.
More Europe is dead.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Merkel’s indomitable will to hold on to power was as plain as the nose on her face. Least surprising thing ever.
Great post, thanks for digging this up!
I think the world needs to put pressure on China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to take the African migrants. Europe is full. They did their share the last 50 yrs. No more. They have enough. Whitey can’t take everyone. China mines a lot of natural resources and is building military bases in Africa. They should take migrants back in exchange. Then I will sit back with some popcorn and see how well “diversity” goes over in China.
Correct me if I am wrong, the Geneva convention was designed for protection of small number of politically active individuals, or temporary need of a small group of people. Was it ever intended for a civilizational, ongoing crisis with no chance of a solution?
A big thank you to Mish for posting on this important issue which is largely being ignored in US media. And thanks to ML1 for the background.
Europeans have been fighting and killing each other for at least 2,000 years. Looks as if that is likely to continue.
When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another…
They start stopping people who have been registered as asylum seekers in other EU countries but this is only a few hundred a week according to statements by German . Police (maybe it is more and they were just trying to protect Merkel by trying to minimize the issue).
The only logical solution to do next is to start stopping EVERYONE trying to seek asylum in Germany at the border and put people in these transit zones until they can be removed to the previous EU country OR to the first EU country they entered. France has been stopping people at it’s border with Italy since summer of 2015 because Italy left 10 000’s and 10 000’s un-registered (actually Italy left 100 000 un-registered in 2014) and hoped they would go to northern Europe through France to seek asylum or disappear in France’s immigrant ghettos surrounding all large french cities to live in underground economy for those africans from SAFE countries so France has been stopping them at the border and France does NOT take asylum applications at the border because Italy is SAFE so there is NO need under the Geneva convention to take asylum applications at the border for people coming through Italy.
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Geneva convention forbids sending back to borders that are un-safe and where people would be persecuted so if Italy was Syria then France would have to take asylum applications at the border but because Italy is Italy they do not have to take.
For some reason in Germany there is a common misconception repeated by German Media that Geneve convention demands that asylum applications need to be taken at the border even for people coming through SAFE countries like Austria and German press and media even calls stopping asylum seekers previously registered in other EU countries at the border as refoulement when in reality it is NOT refoulement and stopping EVERY asylum seeker (registered in some other EU country and un-registered that avoided registration to make it easier to seek asylum in welfare paying EU countries) on German borders would NOT be refoulement since Germany is surrounded by SAFE countries.
This incorrect interpretation about Geneva convention and what is refoulement that have been spread by German media is partly responsible for the stupid decisions by Merkel since 2015.
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France has border police stopping asylum seekers and migrants from crossing the Italy-France border and trains going between Italy and France are stopped at the first station on France’s side and all asylum seekers and migrants are taken off the train, put into vans by French border police and driven back to Italy, since many try to cross the border so consistently and repeatedly French border police has started to keep people in detention for a few days and then fill a bus with these asylum seekers and migrants and drive the bus to southern Italy so the road back to French border is longer. When people have tried to run through the border french border police have pepper sprayed them in the face (imagine what would happen in US media if Trump had illegal immigrants and asylum seekers pepper sprayed in the face like what has happened under Hollande and under Macron after him, imagine what would happen in US media if border patrol would just load people in buses and drive them back to Guatemala and Honduras and El Salvador and Nicaragua).
France also has increased patrols in French side of the border also in the french countryside and mountains because many asylum seekers and migrants have started to try to walk to France through fields, forest or even mountains. These are also mostly caught and returned back to Italy in vans run by french border police.
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The problem in 2015 was that Greece did NOT register 99% of the people coming and instead pushed them towards Germany by giving them ferry rides from the Greek islands near Turkey’s Coast to Athens and then giving them bus rides to near the Greek-Macedonia border because Greece had put their asylum seeker camps in there and it was a short walk to Macedonian border and borders were open in Macedonia and Serbia because Merkel had demanded this, Once people got to Hungary it tried stopping them and registering them but Merkel continually bad mouthed Orban because of course the people trying to go to Germany to seek asylum and get generous welfare and free apartment were angry because Hungary put them in closed areas as allowed by EU directives and even if they got asylum in Hungary they would have received NO welfare and NO free apartment.
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Most likely their asylum claims would have been denied because many had already lived in Turkish refugee camps in safety and also been safe in Greece so their motivation including EVERY syrian that came to Europe was get generous welfare and free apartment provided by Germany and Sweden to asylum seekers getting asylum or subsidiary protection and Sweden and Germany had made a political decision to have 100% acceptance for syrians (if a person was living in SAFETY their asylum application should have been denied based on living in safe third country according to EU directives but Germany and Sweden gave 100% acceptance).
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Greece and leftist Syriza government of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was actually WHO started the 2015 rush through Greece to Germany because in their election campaign they promised to end detention of asylum seekers (as allowed under EU directives) and release everyone in detention and in early 2015 they did just that everyone was released from detention and no detention would be used anymore so of course this led to everyone being kept previously in detention going to Germany claiming asylum and news spreading to origin countries of asylum seekers through Facebook that Greece had stopped detention so way through Greece to Germany and Sweden was now open. When 10 000’s and then 100 000’s started coming Greece stopped even trying to do anything so they did not even register asylum applications in Greece and just waived and pushed, ferried and bussed everyone north.
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Also even those people who had been previously registered as asylum seekers in Greece could claim asylum in Germany and get it since there was EU court decision from 2011 stating that since Greece’s detention facilities are not of a high enough quality so there might be mis-treatment the court decided that Dublin returns to Greece were blocked for asylum seekers from 2011.
Of course this led to everyone caught and forced to submit an asylum application and taken in detention in Greece 2011-2015 to try to escape detention because they would then be able to request asylum and get asylum from countries like Sweden and Germany and some people escaped regularly but Greek government was still trying to stop more people coming to Greece by keeping most of the people in detention until their asylum application was processed and taking asylum application from everyone. Once Greece gave asylum or subsidiary protection there was no longer any basis to escape to Germany and Sweden to seek asylum since people were free to live in Greece and they had a residence permit. Only in Greece this meant sleeping in the streets unless tyou worked and paid yourself an apartment since Greece provides NO welfare money and NO free apartment.
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The mood in Germany has a lot to do with this.
The news that a FAILED iraqi-kurdish asylum seeker who had been denied asylum in Germany raped and murdered 14 year old german girl and then fled to Iraq was apparently what caused people to say “ENOUGH” of Merkel’s complete, total and utter failures and craziness.
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For example EU directives allow for EVERY failed asylum seeker being put into DETENTION until they can be repatriated or deported.
Germany under Merkel has instead let them hang out freely wherever they wanted.
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For example EU directives allow every asylum seeker who commits crimes, has extremist thoughts like supporting terrorists or causes disturbances for example by harassing women to be put in DETENTION until their asylum claims has been processed and decided.
Germany under Merkel has instead let them hang out freely wherever they wanted.
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For example EU directives allow EVERY asylum seekers being kept in a CLOSED area assigned to them (like a asylum seeker camp) OR in a CLOSED residence (like a closed asylum seeker center).
Germany under Merkel has instead let them hang out freely wherever they wanted only giving them a place to sleep and place to come eat in OPEN asylum seekers centres but them being able to spend nights harassing german women in railway stations, or getting drunk in the streets or standing around dancing women and trying to grab them in nightclubs or committing crimes etc. etc.
Many have not done the above mentioned things but many have done those things and still Merkel has kept them freely in the streets.
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So in fact EVERY rape and killing and assault and murder done by asylum seekers or FAILED asylum seekers in Germany has been a result of a POLITICAL CHOICE by Angela Merkel and CDU because EU directives would have allowed everyone to be kept either in DETENTION or in CLOSED assigned areas (CLOSED asylum seeker camps), CLOSED residences (CLOSED asylum seeker centres).
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Merkel and previous Merkel government of CDU/CSU/SPD made a POLITICAL CHOICE to allow every asylum seeker to hang out wherever they wanted and to do whatever they wanted whenever they wanted.
Let’s see what SPD has to say to what CSU/CDU have decided…
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I personally hope Merkel has nightmares every night for what she has caused.
Amazing how Putin manages to achieve so much whilst the mistakes of the political class has no impact at all. Convenient bogeyman. Where is there leadership worth following? Where?
And the winner is ……………………….Mr Vladimir Putin.
I dare say the BBC will be told to keep playing the Russian bogey card as the European Union disintegrates. Need to keep Brexit on hold indefinitely. Still, looking at Deutsche Bank’s share price I think they have more than the odd problem to contend with.
A full rollback of Schengen will be a complete, almost un-navigatable, mess, considering how integrated European production chains, even if not necessarily cultures, have become over the years. For some of the smaller countries, it’s almost akin to passport controls between Los Angeles and Santa Monica. Now wouldn’t that do wonders for LA traffic….. Heck, end the ability of (often immigrant descendant) truckers driving like madmen nonstop from The Med and North, every night, and the Northerners will be so deprived
Currency vise, it’s not too farfected to assume a DeutscheMarkization of integrated suppliers even outside of Germany. Peripheral politicians may not “like” how German monetary policy limits their unfounded largess; but as everywhere else, people busy doing productive stuff, very much prefer stable ground to stand on. And Drachmas and Lira just doesn’t give the same warms and fuzzies as Marks in that respect. And besides, given that Robert-Bosch-Runs-The-World(tm), everybody will need whatever currency the Germans use for at least something important anyway 🙂
But Schengen collapsing, and leaving Europe a patchwork of tiny, xenophobic mini potentates, will be a real mess.
Are any of the leaders fit for purpose? A genuine question.
“……..the EU has turned into a caricature” and that doesn’t include the ECB, Euro etc.