Please consider GM Aims for Self-Driving Taxi Fleet by 2019.

GM executives, speaking at an investor conference Thursday, said the company aims to run a large-scale fleet of driverless cars in big cities by 2019. GM is among the first major driverless-car developers to attach a timeline to the commercialization of autonomous vehicles, and the 109-year-old auto maker is racing big tech companies and Silicon Valley startups to lead the reinvention of the way people own and operate cars.

GM last year earned about a profit margin of 7.5% on its $166 billion in annual revenue from global car sales. Chief Financial Officer Chuck Stevens said that the company believes a driverless-car service by 2025 will offer 20% to 30% margins and a “total addressable market of several hundreds of billions of dollars.”

Ford Motor Co. has made similarly lofty margin projections related to mobility-related services in the past, but has offered far fewer details and stayed away from specific timetables.

Alphabet Inc.’s self-driving car effort, called Waymo, has outlined plans for a future autonomous-taxi service but hasn’t said when it would launch. It said this month that it would begin offering demonstration rides to members of the public without a safety operator behind the wheel, which goes against standard procedure in the industry.

Uber Technologies Inc. also has signaled plans for a sizable robotaxi fleet, saying it would order up to 24,000 Volvo SUVs to convert to autonomous vehicles in coming years, but it also hasn’t disclosed a timetable for commercial deployment.

Mr. Stevens said GM could offer rides for less than $1 a mile by 2025—down from around $2.50 for driver-based, ride-hailing services today. That could generate profit margins roughly quadruple the profitability of GM’s core car-making business, which generated $12.5 billion in operating profit last year.

By 2019?

I question 2019. It would require legislation that has not even begun. It would also require improvements to existing technology.

However, I have no doubts about a 2021-2022 timeframe.

It should be pretty clear at this point that all the deniers are delusional.

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