Here's a pair of Tweets from a person I follow and respect.

Note that COT reports come out on Friday for the following Tuesday. All of the dates in the following table I created are from Tuesday. The price of gold is the closing price on Tuesday. The latest COT report is as of Tuesday, June 19.

Gold Price Vs Cot Positions

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There was a huge increase in the number of large spec shorts as Hickey notes. There was also a big increase from May 8 to May 15. On both occasions the price of gold sank.

However, there was a big decrease in shorts from May 1 to May 8, with the price of gold going nowhere. Also, there was a huge increase in net long positions from June 5 to June 12 and the price of gold fell a bit.

Conclusion: COT analysis alone cannot fully explain large movement (or non-movement) in the price of gold.

I do agree with Hickey that the shorts will add fuel once long accumulation starts.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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