Good Reason to Expect Recession: Greenspan Doesn’t

Wrong Way Greenspan

If you weren’t worrying about recession before, former Fed Chair “Wrong Way” maestro Alan Greenspan just provided one: Greenspan Sees No Recession as Post-Crisis Deleveraging Endures.

“The economy has been weakening, but we’re still in a period of deleveraging,” Greenspan said in a recent interview. His office reaffirmed his outlook on Wednesday. “No recession in the last half century, at least, began from a period of deleveraging.”

Spectacular Contrarian History

Greenspan has a spectacular history of being wrong.

Interest Rate Flashback July 31, 2017

Alan Greenspan told Bloomberg TV : “By any measure, real long-term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable. When they move higher they are likely to move reasonably fast. We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices. This is not discounted in the marketplace.”

Bond Bubble Flashback August 4, 2017

Please consider Bubblicious Debate: Greenspan Says “Bond Bubble About to Break”, No Stock Market Bubble

In a CNBC interview, the longtime central bank chief said the prolonged period of low interest rates is about to end and, with it, a bull market in fixed income that has lasted more than three decades.
“The current level of interest rates is abnormally low and there’s only one direction in which they can go, and when they start they will be rather rapid,” Greenspan said on “Squawk Box.”

Alan Greenspan on “Irrational Exuberance”

On December 5, 1996 the Maestro warned of “Irrational Exuberance“.

Click on the link for an amusing video.

By the year 2000 Alan Greenspan embraced the “productivity miracle” of technology and no longer saw any bubbles.

That’s precisely when the technology bust started.

Negative Yields “No Big Deal”

On August 13, 2019, Greenspan said No Barriers to Prevent Negative Treasury Yields.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says he wouldn’t be surprised if U.S. bond yields turn negative. And if they do, it’s not that big of a deal.

Curiously, we had a bubble with interest rates well north of 2% but now 0% would not be surprising.

Negative Interest Rates Are Social Political Poison

Greenspan’s timing on negative rates is particularly noteworthy.

Effective Lower Bound

For discussion of why the effective lower bound of interest rates may be much higher than zero, please see In Search of the Effective Lower Bound.

Just as Sweden and others are questioning negative rates, Greenspan embraced them.

Well done Maestro!

And thanks for the heads up on a recession.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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TumblingDice
TumblingDice
4 years ago

As long as the Fed and other economists can keep people convinced inflation is low (0 – 2%) the game will continue. This satisfies both creditors and debtors. However, creditors don’t realize their money is worth less than before all the money printing. Debtor’s think this is good as their debts don’t grow as fast. Once again if they are lucky enough to get out of debt, their money buys less than before.

In some ways, I guess this is the only solution for creditors loaning money (w/o concern if it will be paid back) to debtors (figuring if someone wants to loan me money, I can pay it back), when in reality the debtor is tapped out.

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4 years ago

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Christian dk
Christian dk
4 years ago

WHAT office, does Greenspan now have to support this jibberish. ??
Is he STILL on the pay roll of the printing press/FED
or just a “consultent” of some non think tank ?

Roger_Ramjet
Roger_Ramjet
4 years ago

The US just added $1 trillion of new debt since August 1st, consumer credit is at an all time high, there is $1.5 trillion of student loan debt which grows higher with each passing semester, and corporate debt, used primarily to repurchase shares, is at its highest relative to GDP ever.

Now, exactly what deleveraging does the Maestro see out there?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
4 years ago

Still dont see a recession in the textbook definition. We will hover around 1% growth on average with not much standard deviation. Few people have thought about the possibility of slow growth and slow deflation over a decade rather than a bust and boom cycle.

Greggg
Greggg
4 years ago

Dylan Ratigan (On Jimmy Dore Show) talks about Fed repos, Dodd-Frank and what Rahm Emanual explained to the Democratic Caucus before they cast their votes passing the bill. Congress will never have to pass a bail out bill ever again… It’s automatic now. Start @ 2:50: link to youtube.com

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago

I sense that bringing Greenspan into the discussion is like waving a red cloth in front of a bull. Now, why is that?

caradoc-again
caradoc-again
4 years ago

Why can’t people just shut-up and retire.

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland
4 years ago
Reply to  caradoc-again

Maybe, he thinks the plebs won’t kick his ass when the whole fucking thing comes tumbling down….’ah this senile old geezer…look at him remembering his glory days…’

numike
numike
4 years ago
Reply to  caradoc-again

People ask me to predict the future, when all I want to do is prevent it
Ray Bradbury

Jackula
Jackula
4 years ago

50 years from now I think he’ll be seen as one of the architects of the financial collapse of the American empire.

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland
4 years ago
Reply to  Jackula

Most of us already see him as one of the culprits. 50 years from now, we’re all podpeople, eating insects or fake-meat-burgers, while our cortex is connected to our smartphone, so we can receive updates from our corporate masters 24/7.

shamrock
shamrock
4 years ago
Reply to  Jackula

George Bush. He’s the one who sent us down the path of $5-10T chasing down a few thousand maniacs living in caves and ended up getting a lot of them but creating 10,000’s more. That’s what will bankrupt us.

Tengen
Tengen
4 years ago

Things must be bad to bring this old ghoul out of mothballs. Does Greenspan have any credibility left in this country?

May as well make Bernanke and Yellen mumble “no recession ahead” statements too while we’re at it.

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland
4 years ago
Reply to  Tengen

I think the Overton window needs to be smashed to pieces and this topic needs to be the new ‘bombshell’ all over television, internet blogs and finance papers. These destroyers of economies and confiscators of wealth need to be stripped from their power, credibility and worship by their cronies in politics and the media.
And then, held accountable for their actions. Have you ever experienced this level of corruption and lies and denial in your life? I can’t think of a time this has happened before, this level of propaganda and these levels of inequality. I’m sick of hearing myself say this time and time again, but it’s so repugnant….I can’t help it.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again
4 years ago
Reply to  Harry-Ireland

There is no consequence to the individual once a certain depth into Government matrix. All is taken care of after office, guaranteed by the tax payer.

Consequences belong to the mass of plebs.

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland
4 years ago
Reply to  caradoc-again

Yup. It’s a big club….and we ain’t in it 😉

FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago

…..with senile regards from the dementia department . A.G

ksdude69
ksdude69
4 years ago

Negative rates just buy the clowns in charge time to figure out what to do next and ensure that whatever it is, they are in charge of it. The money is no good, but somehow they are still filthy rich and at the top of everything somehow.

shamrock
shamrock
4 years ago

Anyone not expecting recession has been right for 11 straight years. That’s a pretty good track record.

compsult
compsult
4 years ago

An excellent take down of the man who one day will be known as the Great Fool of the 20th century. Had he not gutted interest rates, housing bubble 1 would not have happened.
History will see him for what he was – overconfident in his illogical views and the man who started it all with the massive mispricing of credit

Bam_Man
Bam_Man
4 years ago

Need I remind everyone of what a colossal failure Greenspan was in private business? He only got involved in “government service” after his economic forecasting firm had lost its last client back in the late 1970’s. Needless to say, his forecasting record remains consistently bad to this day.

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland
4 years ago
Reply to  Bam_Man

Colossal failure is a prerequisite for becoming a central banker. Christine Lagarde is the new ECB president and she’s been officially charged with criminal negligence. Charged and found guilty, but of course, not fined with a penalty or jailtime. This tells you all you need to know.

Stuki
Stuki
4 years ago
Reply to  Bam_Man

He’s no worse, nor better, at forecasting random sequences than anyone else. And neither is anyone else.

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Stuki

He was not in the business of forecasting random events; he was fostering such events. Everyone suck at forecasting, but because of that some are more wary of the unknown unknowns. Greenspan was an ideologically driven *****.

Stuki
Stuki
4 years ago

Absolutely. But the problem is not Greenspan’s “forecasting” skills. If it was, the assumption is that there exist, even in theory, someone better at it. Which is false.

Instead, the problem is more fundamental: It’s the notion that there exists even the possibility of a beneficial role to play, for someone to “forecast” “the economy”, and, and this is the important part, based on these forecasts, to manage it. In any way whatsoever. Which is, again, false.

There’s nothing wrong with sitting peacefully around forecasting dice throws. Nor with trying to get some sucker to pay you to do so. The wrong starts, as always, once you start using the force of government to, in any way whatsoever, act based on your forecasts.

IOW; leaving Christ, Muhammad and outliers like those guys out of it; there will never, can never even, be anyone with greater “skills” at forecasting “the economy” than a fruit fly. And corollarily, it doesn’t matter one iota, whether even the “best” forecaster in the business, does his best at forecasting, or on purpose does his worst. It’s all the same. The fundamentalst Jihadis has got it right: You are literally better, or at least no worse, off, basing “policy” on what Mohamed said and did over a thousand years ago, than on anything any modern “forecaster” can, even in theory, dream up.

Hence, the mere existence of any institution dependent on “forecasting” “the economy” is bankrupt from the outset. Without having even a possibility of serving any positive purpose. Ergo: Focus on blowing the institutions so dependent, themselves into smithereens. Not on the impossible task of finding some mythical “Dear Leader” of them, which will magically do a “better job.”

numike
numike
4 years ago

Socialism? Nearly 40% of 2019 farm income will come from federal aid
link to axios.com

Stuki
Stuki
4 years ago
Reply to  numike

40% of farm income, 100+% of Bankster income, 100+% percent of ambulance chaser income, 100+% of income made from “making money from ones house” and “portfolio,” as well as most income derived from selling goods and services to the above……

Yes: Socialism. Big time. With entirely predictable consequences. No different from any other socialist experiment, from the Soviet Union to Venezuela.

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland
4 years ago

By the way, one of Greenspan’s counterparts, the former president of the Dutch CB (DNB) Nout Wellink said 2 months ago, a recession is inevitable and is a natural phenomenon. He sees one within 6 months. He’s also one of the few to speak out against the QE madness. Greenspan has lost touch with reality or he’s deliberately trying to maintain the facade that everything is glorious. You decide for yourself which is more likely.

TheLege
TheLege
4 years ago
Reply to  Harry-Ireland

The Dutch Central Bank also recently published a paper suggesting that gold might play a role in a new monetary system if (when) this one inevitably craters. Nout is no fool.

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  TheLege

That probably disqualified him for the ECB presidency.

Country Bob
Country Bob
4 years ago

In the 1970s USA, Detroit (car executives or UAW) could not fathom the idea that Americans wouldn’t just put up with crappy cars at sky high prices. Toyota and Honda wiped the floor with GM’s smugness, and despite multiple bailouts GM never truly recovered.

Today, Washington DC (politicians and bureaucrats) cannot fathom the idea that Americans won’t just put up with crappy public services and sky high taxes. That arrogance is why Trump won (Trump will say it was his genius or something, but the same thing is happening all over the G7).

History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. There will be a massive recession in government. I don’t imagine the bureaucrats will go any more willingly than the UAW did, but it will happen in spite of them because big government has failed everywhere.

Only a fool believes in government run health care (without massive oil royalties), or government actually fixing roads, or government actually doing much of anything efficiently. Only a fool believes the welfare department or rent control is going to “solve” wealth inequality. And if you are a banker, you have to be smoking some serious drugs to think the central banks (ECB, Fed or BoJ) are going to solve anything at all.

Recession in government is coming. The private sector will boom as consumers look for alternatives to government “service”

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

Bob,
Of course you’re right, governments are confiscating wealth by moneyprinting and taxation.
Have you ever been in The Netherlands? Sure, taxes are high. But they run a surplus and have relatively low goverment debt. On top of that, their healthcaresystem does work and their roads are probably the best in Europe. Is it an utopia? Hell no. But you’re painting a picture that just isn’t accurate. Perhaps if you broaden your view outside of the USA, you’ll see that the US government is a fraud, more so than others.

Country Bob
Country Bob
4 years ago
Reply to  Harry-Ireland

@Harry-Ireland … you are awfully quick to jump to erroneous conclusions. My ID is a joke my friends tell because I used to live in NYC and traveled outside the USA so much the airline knew me by first name.

If you read a blog called Mishtalk, you will find the author won’t shut up about Brexit 🙂 Clearly things are not happy in merry ol’ England, no matter what you say about the Netherlands.

Periodically, Mish breaks away from Brexit coverage to point out the disaster that is Angela Merkel and her dim witted effort to get the AfD elected in Germany. Things ain’t happy in Germany either.

And once in a while, Mish will write a post about the Italian government, which is both bankrupt and a disaster. Mish has also written posts about Spain versus Catalonia (?not sure I have spelling correct). Things are not happy in Italy or Spain, no matter what you might think of the Netherlands.

The Yellow vests in Paris (France) was having something that looked like a civil war, waddled like a civil war, and quacked like a civil war. Not as happy as you claim the Netherlands to be.

When he isn’t dressing in black face, Canada’s Troudeau (I don’t even care how he spells his name) is alienating half of Canada. Are you seeing a theme here? Canada is not as happy as you claim Netherlands is.

Japan has had so many failed LDP leaders, so many failed QE programs, and three decades of zero interest rate failure. Oh and they somehow managed to irradiate a big swath of Japan with their “leadership” at Fukashima nuclear plant. I would say the Japanese are not happy, but some of them glow in the dark. Can’t say that about the Netherlands

Outside of the G7:

  • Argentina is bankrupt… again. The IMF made things worse… again. They are not happy Harry.

  • Chile is ummm… well once again I have to call your bluff and point out they are not happy either.

  • Hong Kong… Really not happy. Thailand…. not happy. Brazil had a lot of problems involving a car wash that did billions in business every year, something about government embezzlement etc. The stadiums for the olympics didn’t happen.

Decades of socialist stupidity from Hugo Chavez and Murdino have turned Venezuelans into people who can’t afford to buy toilet paper, if only there was some available. Harry, people who don’t have toilet paper are NOT happy campers.

I could go on and on, but if you just read Mishtalk you know there are LOTS of problems in Europe, even if you mistake the Netherlands for Utopia.

And most of the cases I cited (if not all of them) relate to piss poor governments riddled with corruption and lame leadership.

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

I didn’t jump to conclusions, Bob. And neither am I glorifying the Dutch or the EU. In fact, most here know I’m very much anti-EU, but I love Europe as a continent. I was merely trying to counter your arguments that no government could ever have a functional healthcaresystem or maintain proper roads. There are plenty of examples of European countries who have those to a very high level, for which I gave just one example. What I keep hearing you -and other Americans- say is the horrid condition of the infrastructure and of course, the disaster that is the US healthcare system. And you’re free to blame Obama for that, but of course it was already bad before him. So often you lose yourself in extreme black/white thinking, just like you did in the California fire topic. You go off on a rant and blame everything and everybody for the things that are fucked up. It’s hardly productive and I think you’re just letting off steam because those issues bother you to no end. We all have that, we all share that and therefor we’re here on Mish’s blog.
And you list all the countries which are experiencing social unrest or worse and I agree. It’s a global problem and I am positive, it’s because of this peaklevel of greed and inequality. Who’s to blame? Socialists? Extreme greed? Financialization of everything? Wall Street? Deregulation? Banks? Central Banks? Bureaucrats? Corporate dominance? Elites? The New World Order? Inept governments? Corruption? Endlessly lying politicians? Cringe virtuesignalling progressives? Perhaps, it’s a combination of all of it.
If you’re looking for a scapegoat or an easy answer, you’re wasting your time. It’s just the worst of human nature. It’s neither socialism, nor capitalism.
Now, I’m sure you have your own take on that, but in essence, these issues are tearing societies apart.
It has nothing to do with me being European and seeing Europe as some sort of Utopia, that’s ridiculous.
Well, maybe I talk about Iceland a lot and Holland. Then again, these are small countries where relatively speaking, society is functioning better than in most other countries. But yeah, that comes at a cost, taxes are high. Still, there’s relatively speaking a stable, peaceful society.
For various reasons, not the least is that Iceland just let banks fail and jailed some bankers. And Holland is known for its financial prudence.
How different would the USA be if those rules were applied to your society? I think it should be tried, because 23 trillion in debt and rampant crony capitalism is taking its toll, my friend. And I’m sure you’ll agree, 2020’s elections will probably have to potential to be the bloodiest, nastiest and most violent in history. Isn’t it always the ones who are preaching tolerance and peace who end up contradicting either value?
Stay safe my dude..

numike
numike
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

Could the private sector have “piss poor government (stewardship) riddled with corruption and lame leadership” ?

Stuki
Stuki
4 years ago
Reply to  numike

Only if there exist de facto, government enforced, mechanisms preventing less “piss poor” people from setting up shop next door and doing things more efficiently.

Hence why the piss poors’ running both government and everything else, is so obsessed with restricting competition. BY way of everything from “professional” licensing, to zoning/land use laws, “Intellectual” property, tariffs, immigration bans, mandated this and that, ever more complicated activity taxes, and massive redistribution from the productive to the connected by way of money printing, legal nonsense and the tax bill.

As Carl R pointed out, “Piss Poor” government doesn’t magically solve itself. Instead, it eventually gets overthrown, most often from the outside. The same holds true, to at least as great a degree, for private companies. As long as they can hide behind “IP”, franchise laws, zoning laws, noncompete clauses, threats of dragging startup competitors into court and massive transfers their way by way of debasement and “monetary” and “fiscal” policy aimed at preventing the incompetent from going under yesterday, they will never change. All the way up until mismanagement renders them so weak they are simply walked over, even by competitors as dysfunctional as a bunch of communists.

HenryV
HenryV
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

However, is there not a case for retaining some public services. Time was in the UK when virtually everything was nationalised but Thatcher saw to that. However, being a Brit I am very nervous about our water and nuclear industries being run by the French. Our power generation, distribution and water industries should be in public ownership. Prisons, police and armed forces likewise. Not sure about airports. Coal, steel, railways, shipbuilding – Na! Corbyn can have them.

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland
4 years ago
Reply to  HenryV

I agree. Essential public services should be in public ownership. Look at California’s PGE. Having said that, even under government rule, you’re not save from corruption or mismanagement. The people of Flint know all about that.

Country Bob
Country Bob
4 years ago
Reply to  Harry-Ireland

Harry, if you really think PGE is privately run, then you need to get out of Ireland more.

PGE, like all the electrical utilities in the USA, are micro-managed by an army of government bureaucrats. Everything from generation rates to transmission rates are controlled by government. The transmission lines get approved by the state. There are state inspectors who are supposed to inspect and double check whether the transmission lines are up to code… they signed off on everything PGE did. So did California voters.

Utilities in the USA are GSEs, just like FNMA or FHLMC. Everything they do is controlled by government bureaucrats. Absolutely everything.

Stop pretending otherwise

Country Bob
Country Bob
4 years ago
Reply to  Harry-Ireland

And to all the socialists commenting above… there is no part of the US government (and I suspect all G7 governments) that couldn’t do just fine with a 40% headcount reduction. Every single department without exception. State and local governments too, although that is a subtlety completely lost on the foreign commenters here.

There is no reason for government employees to get full retirement after 20 years of goofing off. Whining about police and fire misses the fact that the overwhelming majority of municipal workers are not police or fire.

Pensions have been eliminated all over the private sector in the USA, it is unreasonable to think public employees should still get a pension, and to get one after 20 years!! Only an idiot thinks that is reasonable. Promises from politicians aren’t worth anything, so don’t bother with that tired nonsense.

Like Detroit back in the 1970s, G7 governments today especially in the USA have bloated headcounts, unreasonable salary and benefits, and mostly piss poor service (saying you think you know an exception that proves the rule only proves there is a big problem).

Like Detroit back in the 1970s, government employees will whine like UAW workers ignoring another defect on a gas guzzling wood paneled station wagon.

People are moving out of high tax states — CA, IL, NY, NJ, CT, MA, WI — just like they stopped driving gas guzzlers. People are voting in a real estate developer with bizarre hair. Boris has weird hair too, and the Brits are telling big government in Brussels to shove it. Germany, Italy and France too.

I am not making a prediction… This is already happening

bradw2k
bradw2k
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

Good thread, CB. Yes the welfare state account is becoming overdrawn and approaching crises. The problem is that the gov-loving zombies will respond to these crises and hardships by aggressively voting for more government controls.

IMO there is a severe lack of intellectual leadership in favor of capitalism, that thing the US kind of had 120 years ago, so nothing good can come from any crises that come. The lefties are zombies, so should be pushovers, but most Republicans are, as thermonosynaptic correctly alluded to, intellectual cowards who wouldn’t dream of questioning their own Social Security and Medicare benefits.

“And to all the socialists commenting above…” The funny thing is, many of the commenters on this blog are from countries with as much or more economic freedom as the US (the US and the Netherlands are #12 and #13 on the Index of Economic Freedom) even as they are claiming that capitalism doesn’t work and the US should become more like … France.

Stuki
Stuki
4 years ago
Reply to  HenryV

Thing is there is no “our.” In progressive Newspeak, “Our’s” is just shorthand for “Dear Leader’s.” To do with as he sees fit. The only time “our’s” come into play, is when it’s time to pay for any of it.

Instead, “Your” “Power generation, distribution and water industries” should be in your ownership. Mine in mine.

Then, both of us would be in a position to bargain with anyone claiming to be able to provide it for a good price, from a position of strength. Instead of, as of now, having to choose between bowing down, either to half literate PE clowns who bought up utilities with money the Fed stole from others for them, or to Hugo Chavez or some likeminded moron.

Keep a generator or four at home, and nice sized water and fuel tanks. Always topped up. 6 months worth. Then, from that position of strength, negotiate with suppliers over who gets to keep them topped up.

And for those sufficiently indoctrinated to insist that this is not “practical”, that’s exactly how it is done on big(ish) boats with decent tankage. Fuel up in Venezuela, Gibraltar or other cheap spots; make your own water unless someone decide to make you an offer you can’t refuse for filling your tanks. Tankage on boats is expensive. On land, installing them is a genuine pittance. The key is to have procedures in place which allow you to pare down usage, during “droughts.” So you can wait out anyone trying to squeeze you.

And if you don’t feel like doing it all yourself, plenty of churches and other voluntary communities do maintain emergency rations. Cities and other “public” communities used to as well, until they became progressive enough to figure their captive underlings are less likely to get all uppity about being robbed and harassed, if they are kept desperate and on a short leash wrt necessities.

Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

The US has been wracked by this constant drum of “the government is the problem” since the early Reagan days. It’s great to gripe, but in effect it has mostly masked further give-aways to the wealthy and their rackets.

But the truth is, all wealthy countries have a strong public sector and social and physical infrastructure. Otherwise businesses could go to Mozambique: low taxes, low wages, almost no government regulation or oversight. But very expensive to do business: no transportation, no communications, no shipping, no infrastructure, no schooling, etc. There is a reason that there are many developments that converge across the gamut of wealthier countries, despite the pendulum swings of varying ideological governments.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej

You’re preaching to the “Four legs good, two legs bad” crowd who are glued to Fox News. Understanding that government can be a positive force as well as not perfect is well beyond the mental agility of the Reagan crowd. Try taking away their Social Security, Medicare and gutting the military and they’ll all suddenly be in love with THEIR government programs.

SpeedyGeezer
SpeedyGeezer
4 years ago

Social Security and Medicare were promised for decades. These need reform to become sustainable, but can not be immediately undone. Romney and Manchin announced a bipartisan effort to work on these a few days ago. As bad as it is, PG&E is a resounding success compared to the USPS, Amtrak, most public school systems, student loans, many of our state and local governments and countless other government “services”. Some services are certainly best provided by government like national defense, law enforcement, courts, regulatory oversight, etc. We need to do something for income inequality as all of the business returns are going to technology and capital. UBI makes the most sense to me as it requires the least government intervention. As for M4A, Green New Deal, free college, student loan forgiveness, free everything for illegal immigrants, nationalization of industry and banking. Destructive and unaffordable.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic
4 years ago
Reply to  SpeedyGeezer

I got it – you need SS and Medicare, so those are good. Things you don’t need are bad.

SpeedyGeezer
SpeedyGeezer
4 years ago

Actually, you don’t “got it”. I am suggesting that too many other people are relying on SS and Medicare for the government to drop them. I have no issues with means testing as a way to make these programs sustainable for those who need them. I am just a regular working stiff and as such I have paid my FICA taxes for 40 years. If means testing denied me my benefits but allowed the programs to survive. so be it. I can live with that result. Given the government’s track record for inefficiency, waste and misguided initiatives, I am not very excited about my remaining years of income and retirement savings being confiscated for new pipe dreams.

Stuki
Stuki
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej

You should try setting up a business in Mozambique, if you think government there will leave you alone…….. Africa is the worst of the worst, when it comes to government interference and shakedowns of anyone who look like they just about may have a buck. Quadruply so if that somebody can in any way be construed to be an “outsider.”

numike
numike
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

‘Capitalism…is no longer the progressive force described by Marx’; the free market era ‘has been followed by a new one in which production is concentrated in vast syndicates and trusts which aim at monopoly control’. Giant multinational technology companies ‘freeze out other competition to forestall independent technological innovation’. Financial control ‘has passed from the industrialists themselves to a handful of banking conglomerates – the creation of a banking oligarch”
Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism
Lenin

Stuki
Stuki
4 years ago
Reply to  numike

Problem with Lenin, although he was an acute observer of the reality surrounding him, was that he didn’t watch enough Western Movies.

The American experience, essentially that of an open frontier, demonstrated exactly how to prevent the decay Lenin experienced in Europe. Hence why America grew right past the Europe it originated from, in the 19th century.

America dd so specifically because that open frontier allowed people to simply route around the leeching riffraff, both banksters and government drones, by mowing ever further West. As long as that frontier was open, America remained reasonably free. Unlike Europe; both the nominally “capitalist” and the nominally “socialist” one. Both “systems” which were then, as now, just two brand names for the exact same thing: Unlimited rule by privileged halfwits, with no way for the ruled to simply disregard it all and leave the idiots to stew in their own idiocies.

That experience is still the only way to avoid the decay intrinsic to both the FIRE plague Lenin warned about, as well as Lenin’s proposed solution; neither of which worked, nor can ever work, in any way, shape, nor form at all.

The trick is hence to create an experience as close to that of an open, untamed and; and this is important, unruled; frontier as possible; even in the absence of the specific physical and geographic features that created one in America. Do that, and both FIRE idiots and Leninists will be out their current business in no time. Both forced to either do something productive and non harassing for a change, or to simply starve to death. Or perhaps find themselves dangling from the end of a tree branch, if they refuse to kick their robbing and harassing habits.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

So, Country Bob, you ready to give up your SS and Medicare yet? Thought not.

Country Bob
Country Bob
4 years ago

mono wrote — “So, Country Bob, you ready to give up your SS and Medicare yet?”

Yes, go ahead and cancel SS and Medicare. I don’t believe they will be paid as it is, so canceling the programs will be a lot more honest than pretending they are still funded.

The government is already doing means testing on both programs, which they swore would not happen.

Despite Pochohantis lying all the time, the trustees of Medicare have admitted that it is bankrupt.

Social Security has admitted they cannot pay benefits in full — which is called a default in case you don’t speak English. And that is what they are admitting to, the actual funding levels are much worse than politicians admit to.

Go ahead and cancel both programs. That is going to happen anyway — you are just too dumb to admit it

Carl_R
Carl_R
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

Can you give me an example of a “recession in government”? So far as I know, governments simply grow until they collapse. They never go into recession and fix themselves, but rather pass the point of no return, and are overthrown. Why do you think the US won’t follow the historical norm?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

The intersection of government and corporation is fascism not socialism. Government is sustainable only because of corporatism. The two are intertwined and cannot survive without one another. CB and a few others here are blinded to one side of the looking glass. CB also stands for central bank which is another form of corporatism and fascism. The revolution is coming but it’s going to be in the form of monetization to quell the uprising.

bradw2k
bradw2k
4 years ago

Casual, what does this mean? “Government is sustainable only because of corporatism. The two are intertwined and cannot survive without one another.” Are you talking about current governments in the US, or government as such?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
4 years ago
Reply to  bradw2k

Current government in the US and all governments around the world to some degree are all defined by corporatism. Who do you think the politicians listen to when passing bills ? Do you think there are more individual groups or corporate groups with lobbying power ? Who has more money to convince politicians to pass bills in favor of corporations ?

bradw2k
bradw2k
4 years ago

Gotcha, you are talking about current governments, in which politicians have favors to sell, and so rich people/orgs line up to buy them.

Government needn’t have favors to sell. That is just the type of government that people have chosen (foolishly) to put into practice … government with its fingers in the economy.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
4 years ago
Reply to  bradw2k

Power corrupts. It doesnt matter who is in charge. It’s not who is elected but the system itself.

Country Bob
Country Bob
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

As long as idiots insist on raising more and more taxes in the USA, there will be trillions in essentially unguarded money in Washington DC.

As long as there are trillions in unguarded money, corrupt private sector persons will bribe corrupt politicians to get some of those trillions.

Honest citizens — whether business or labor — will always suffer under big government, because they are honest. Corrupt people will always demand more and more taxes for themselves

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

You live in an alternate universe. Taxes are lower across the country yet the purported increase in economic activity from this has resulted in no net increase in revenue to the treasury which in addition to new defense spending has exploded the deficit. In addition to debt and deficit nobody, even you, wants to address the truth. You are fine sitting on your high horse and blaming programs you dont like but wont address the elephant in the equation.

Country Bob
Country Bob
4 years ago

There you go again making unfounded assumptions. I am perfectly happy if the government admits that it will not pay the social security benefits that were promised me… they are not going to in any event.

Its not a matter of whether means testing is a “fair” way to address the insolvency, its a matter of whether the full faith and credit of the US Congress means they will keep their promises or not.

The Feds already defaulted on social security to the upper 10% or so of income. You may think that is “fair” (at least until they do it to you), but fair or not its still a default.

The Feds already defaulted on their promises to provide health care to veterans injured in combat. They have a 1001 loopholes and caveats and limits and excuses — but ultimately Obama paid bonuses to bureaucrats in Washington who figured out ways to avoid keeping promises to vets. its another default.

Medicare is supposedly solvent, according to the charlatans running for office, but its bankrupt according to medicares own trustees — and even the charlatans want to raise medicare taxes for baby boomer benefits that were already paid for… which is a twisted and lying way of saying they know medicare is bankrupt already.

Anyone who travels by air has seen the defaults (plural) in transportation. Crumbling airports, air traffic control run by vacuum tube computers, and a “temporary” increase in TSA groping just until they kill Bin Laden. Once they get Bin Laden, then they will restore travel freedoms.

Amtrak has had more five year plans than the Soviet Union, but not as many as the US Post Office. Both Amtrak and the Post Office continue to hemorage money while cutting service.

Socialists will make excuses, but a default is a a default. When GM defaulted on pensions, at least the employees could try to get a job at another company (even if it was for less money, its better than zero). But as the Feds default on more and more of their promises, taxpayers cannot opt out.

Ask the folks in Flint Michigan if they can build their own water system. Ask your deadbeat neighbors in CA if they can avoid paying taxes to PG&E — which is micro-managed by state and federal regulators.

And you @Casual_Observer … you saw the disaster that is California finances, and knowing that you moved INTO California? Are you taking the same dumb pills as the folks who quote Lagarde, Draghi, Greenspan and Bernanke? California is a proven failure and Chicago isn’t messed up enough to your liking — so you moved INTO California…. yeah, I don’t think I will be taking advice from you

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

I wasn’t talking about social security or medicare. The elephant I was referring to was defense spending and the bloated budget at the Pentagon.

California may have problems but not the problems of Chicago or Illinois which doesn’t have a sound economy to begin with. I’m in California to make money and will retire elsewhere. It is not unlike most Californians who end up leaving elsewhere for retirement to avoid taxes.

FWIW, the early rulings on pensions out here aren’t good for those expecting a state or local pension. Judges have already ruled in favor of cities seeking to reduce pensions. This is the opposite of Illinois.

I wouldn’t expect you to take advice from anyone. Each person’s situation is specific to themselves and I wouldn’t want you to take my advice. What works for me may not work for you or others. This is America right?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

The problem with you CB is you peg people by where they live. I’ve lived in 3 of the top 10 GDP states now and turns out two of them happen to be blue and the other is red but turning purple quickly. I’ve moved before and will probably move again. My experience tells me no place is perfect so I don’t go around making judgement on people by where they live. I don’t fit into any of your boxes you like to peg posters here with. I never have and never will. The truth is I’ve never registered with either party and voted for all kinds of parties in addition the two mainstream ones. I’ve in red states and blue states and blue parts of red states and red parts of blue states. The truth is I don’t fit anywhere and I don’t mind it. You should stop wasting your time trying to put me a box because you will get frustrated easily.

Country Bob
Country Bob
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

@Casual_Observer is one of those self appointed “geniuses” who ran California into the ground… at some point, you have to wonder why anyone still listens to people who fail over and over and over, whether the failure is Greenspan or the residents of California

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

Lol.i just got here yesterday CB. I’ve lived all over the country in places large and small. I agree with you the system is corrupt but not just in the narrow view you are looking through. It is corrupted in every way possible but it’s not going to change anytime soon because on balance 70-80% of people are doing alright. That could change but it will take another crisis.

Stuki
Stuki
4 years ago

70-80% of people are doing alright, AS LONG AS the other 90% can be expected to pay for that feeling of doing alright today, some time in the future. That’s the math we got to work with…… Good thing we have public schools….

numike
numike
4 years ago
Reply to  Country Bob

“Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people.”
― Henry Thomas Buckle

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