The Census Department Advance Report on International Trade for December was released today after a government shutdown delay.
Advance International Trade in Goods
- The international trade deficit was $79.5 billion in December, up $9.0 billion from $70.5 billion in November.
- Exports of goods for December were $135.7 billion, $4.0 billion less than November exports.
- Imports of goods for December were $215.2 billion, $5.0 billion more than November imports.
- Agricultural exports fell 1.8%.
- Year-over-year exports are down 0.3%.
- Year-over-year imports are up 3.2%.
Trump Desperate for a Deal
As a tribute to Trump’s tariff policies and China’s retaliations, year-over-year agricultural exports are down a whopping 5.5%.
Note that US Farm Belt Bankruptcies Climb, Canada the Beneficiary of Trump’s Trade Policy.
Trump is desperate for a deal with China. So expect one: Hooray! “Substantial” Progress With China (Just Don’t Ask Where).
And don’t expect a huge victory no matter what Trump proclaims.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
So US trading partners are, aggregately, selling US more than they buy from US. What are they doing with the dollars they receive? Buying treasuries? Which countr(y/ies) (is/are) the net buyer(s)?
“We’re gonna need a bigger boat.”
Ag exports are “down a whopping 5.5%”? Wow, from all the hoopla about that I thought it would be much worse. It was much worse when Jimmy Carter banned all ag exports to the #1 US customer – Russia – when he was president.
I don’t know the specifics of the various Ag markets very well, but in order for volume to drop 5.5% in that other commodity market, oil; even the producers of the remaining 94.5% are taking it seriously on the nose, wrt margins. Nobody wants to be in the 5.5%, and are hence cutting everything to the bone to avoid it. Forcing everyone else to follow suit, lest they be the ones….
So much winning! I am getting tired of so much winning!
There is a second reason Trump wants a deal – He can and likely will increase tariffs on the EU – he doesnt want two trade wars at once
“he doesn[‘]t want two trade wars at once”
I hope you are right, but you are more optimistic than I am Mish – he seemed to start trade wars on multiple fronts in 2017 with little regard for reality.
You can’t have a buffoon as the face of your countries products without negative consequences. I’ve no doubt people are less likely to buy American thanks to him, revenue at Trump hotels are down much more than 0.3%.
Was Obama, GWB, Clinton, GHW, Reagan Presidential buffoons? Did you know our own US purchases goods from Communist China and Russia? Who is the bigger buffoon, each and every president who “loses” on trade deals, or the country buying from communist nations? What other nations middle class people hold a grudge against US Companies selling overseas? I think they are too busy holding grudges against their own oppressive regimes in my opinion. Or did I not understand your POV?
“Was Obama, GWB, Clinton, GHW, Reagan Presidential buffoons?”
Of course. How else do you think they became Presidents of a failed society in free fall down the map to Venezuela?
Stuki, I think Shamrock was making a point that revolves around the notion that the poor / middle class of other countries won’t buy from US manufacturers / exporters because of our “Buffoon” President. Some kinda globalist linear equation to not purchase “Made in America”. I didn’t see mention of domestic policies in his hard won statement. I hardly see strong evidence of Venezuela in our country. In fact, we were more socialist during the industrial revolution. Our dollar remains strong, our bond market is the healthiest in the world, Bernie is not President, AOC has populist traction if only because she is in office in a blue state (Policy implementation is a different story), and Amazon will be just fine, 200 other US cities will take AMZN before you can say the word socialism.
“In fact, we were more socialist during the industrial revolution. Our dollar remains strong, our bond market is the healthiest in the world, Bernie is not President….”
Look at income tax rates during the industrial revolution vs now. Look at total size of government… Look at the level of armaments the standing army has, vs what the militia has…
So, we’re selling more bonds that anyone…. Or, correct that: A bunch of self promoting party members, their favored sycophants and favorite apparatchiks, are selling bonds to fund their ever more overreaching dabbling in hookers, blow and self aggrandizement. And somehow, other people’s kids are supposed to be on the hook for paying the nonsense back?? And what passes for an “education system” are “teaching” the kids that this is just how things just are……. Seemingly successfully too, sadly enough…
And while Bernie is not President, Trump is. And Obama and the rest were. As if that makes any meaningful of difference whatsoever. When Washington was President, he had a budget under $10 million. And no standing army. Compare that today, and tell me we’re not closer to Venezuela than what America was intended to be; back when it stood as a Shining City on the Hill, and still retained trappings of a free and civilized society.
Always choices Stuki. Your tribunal of indifference is baffling to me. Liquidity matters in a bond market, and while personalizing the bond argument into vices has merit, the merit lies in probablitities of 5% or less or participants, and that may be generous, and sure it’s a meaningful difference that Bernie is not President, you have heard his fundamentalism, yes? We are probably closer to capitalism in many areas, such as Real Estate Development. As you know, the govt handed out land to the aristocracy back then. There is good reason many Colleges / Universities are named as such….Duke, Temple, Carnegie Mellon and so on. The shining city on the hill is still shining, you just have to look at the light through the darkness.
“.. the govt handed out land to the aristocracy back then.”
And now they hand it out, or at least the value of it, to the new aristocracy. Directly so, by barring anyone else from building whatever the heck they darned well want, on nearby hence competing for people’s rent money, lots.. “Real Estate Development”, even by the low standards set by the rest of our financialized dystopia, has got to be the worst example of a “free market” available anywhere this side of Pyongyang.
If Bernie becomes President, he’s just as likely to shrink government, like the similarly leftist Syriza did in Greece. Simply on account of bond buyer queasiness over his reputation. Along with the near impossibility of making any government any bigger, than one that already controls everything as is. I’m in no way supporting the nonsense he’s preaching, but in practice, it doesn’t matter.
Our government is an order of magnitude too big. At least. Ditto our FIRE sectors, at least 90% of which are nothing but abject, government enabled theft rackets producing no value whatsoever. We’re gone. Toast. Over the hill. Just in the way. And the faster we’re removed, and replaced by something with a bit more vigor and a lot more freedom, the better off everyone, including us, are.
The easy statement to agree with “Our government is an order of magnitude too big”…. otherwise lotsa drama Stuki.
As a share of the economy, “our” government’s size is in the same order of magnitude as the one in Venezuela. Heck, in absolute terms, “ours” is orders of magnitude larger than the one down there….. While, back in the civilized era (Jefferson or thereabouts…), ours really was an order or more of magnitude smaller than either, no matter how you did the counting.
Hence why our current outcomes have lots more in common with contemporary Venezuela, than with America back when it was still great.
As for “drama,” that’s what all those orders of magnitude of increased meddling gets you. Stick to the Ten Commandments and US Bill of Rights, and drama, at least as pertains to government, is no longer there.
Stuki, America is at it Zenith now, not 150 years or 250 years ago. The FIRE businesses notwithstanding. 150 years ago the civil war between the proletariat and business/government was an order of magnitude greater than today even considering relative numbers of workers and laws back then. 75% of Americans did not want the Revolutionary War, there was a Revolutionary War within the Revolutionary War. This was not a great time but a time to build greatness if they could, and they did. Venezuela is not a relative comparison not even remotely in the economic ball park, it’s foolish to attempt. The only comparison to the US is the US, because the US is as unique as a snowflake. This is not to say we don’t have flaws, but good golly you must recognize one the flaws is the 10 Commandments my friend.
In Progressivestan, every utopia is always a special snowflake.
All the over governed socialist “utopias” that failed, did so only because Stalin was bad, Mao was bad, Pol Pot was bad, Chavez was bad etc….
While the next over governed socialist “utopia,” like the one everyone’s very own special snowflake Dear Leader can be relied upon to proclaim “the greatest” and “special” and “not like anyone else,” otoh, is never bad. Because Dear Leader says so on teevee…. As does his friends, the ones he calls “the experts.” And bestowed “degrees” upon…
Also, every ostrich is always perfectly safe. See nothing, hear nothing, know nothing, understand nothing, huh????… Like Sean Penn in Venezuela, an hour or week or year or so ago. And like similarly indoctremecated dupes in America today. Always special snowflakes, every one of them…
Brother Stuki! Can’t compare US to any of these dictatorial regimes! You can, but you will fail miserably, as you have demonstrated. Why do you insist? Please regroup on your comparative analysis. US Constitution has moles, but one of them is not dictatorial revulsion. I suggest you visit one of those nations to understand the difference, so you can interpret the current sovereign situations in a more accurate light.