Future of the Grand Coalition

Via Eurointelligence

The Bavarian election story is a different one than commentators expected. The debate the day after is not about the future of Markus Soder and Horst Seehofer. They are both secure for now. It is about the future of the federal grand coalition, and of the SPD specifically. It is also about the spectacular success of the Greens. Sueddeutsche Zeitung’s day-two front page headline is about Munich turning into a Green metropolis.

The absolute number of CSU voters has only fallen marginally compared to 2014, but their vote share dropped because of the higher participation. The SPD’s support on the other hand collapsed beyond redemption, both in relative and absolute terms. This will have important implications for the grand coalition.

The next date to watch out is the October 28 election in the state of Hesse, where a relatively popular SPD candidate hopes to unseat the CDU incumbent prime minister, Volker Bouffier. It should be a better result than in Bavaria - but it is the gap between expectations and reality that will matter in Hesse as well. And don’t underestimate the uplift the Greens received from the Bavarian election. They are now the cool party of the left.

We note that the decision to form yet another grand coalition has dramatically accelerated the party’s secular decline. Unless the Greens self-destruct, the CDU/CSU moves to the right, or the SPD itself turns to the left and manages to usurp the Left Party, we see no solution to this.

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

Demographics

Demographics favors the Greens in the medium term, and the Left in the long run. According to a socio-demographic analysis of Germany’s political parties, the share of SPD members who are over 60 years is 54%. The equivalent percentage for the Greens is 24%. The percentage of under-30 year olds are a mere 8% for the SPD.

Unless the SPD manages to find a new political niche - which it can do only in opposition - its share of the vote will continue to decline. The longer the current grand coalition hangs on, the faster the rate of decline.

Source of Instability

Much of the political uncertainty in Europe is perceived to be the result of Brexit and Italian politics. Germany could become a source of political instability faster than many people realize.

Once again, thank Merkel. The splintering of Germany is on her watch, by her hands.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Tortured Death of Germany's Grand Coalition

Germany's Grand Coalition has been on life support for years. Will SPD finally put the coalition out of its misery?

Expect "Less Merkel" Not Another "Grand Coalition"

SPD Leader Schulz and Merkel agreed to hold talks following pressure from the German President. Nothing will come of it.

What's Keeping the German Grand Coalition Talks Alive?

After rejecting a Grand Coalition, SPD's Sigmar Gabriel seeks to keep the hopes alive despite little party support. Why?

Grand Coalition Talks Proceed: Elections Avoided? Not Yet

CDU and SPD agreed to enter a final round of talks to form another grand coalition. Don't celebrate yet.

Merkel and SPD Agree to Grand Coalition: Ratification a Tossup at Best

After weeks of bickering, Merkel and SPD agreed to form another grand coalition. The hard part is next: ratification.

Merkel Wins But Grand Coalition Loses: Major Parties Suffer Worst-Ever Results, AfD Solidly in 3rd P

Angela Merkel won her fourth term but the results were not pretty either for Merkel’s CDU/CSU party or SPD, her Grand Coalition partner following the last election.

Rise of the Greens: Merkel's Coalition Partner, SPD, Vanishes Into Irrelevance

The latest INSA poll shows support for SPD and CDU has collapsed. AfD tops SPD and the Greens now top CDU. SPD is toast.

Support for SPD Dives: Coalition Doubts Mount

Support for SPD, in coalition talks with CDU/CSU to form a German government, is now at a record low. Doubts mount.

Crunch Time Germany: AfD Rises Above SPD in Polls, Grand Coalition Not

Support for AfD passed SPD in the latest German poll. Support for the "Grand Coalition" is under 50%.