Gun Sentiment Shift in Pictures

Mish

Some people doubt there is a shift in gun sentiment, so let's display the clear shift for comment.

The above Gallup Survey chart shows sentiment towards gun control over time.

  • Sixty-seven percent of Americans say the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made stricter. This represents an increase of seven percentage points since last fall and is the highest in any Gallup survey since 1993.
  • In addition to the two-thirds of Americans wanting stricter gun laws, 28% say gun laws should be kept as they are now and 4% say they should be made less strict. Both percentages have declined significantly in recent years.
  • Currently, 90% of Democrats say they want stricter gun laws, compared with 65% of independents and 41% of Republicans. All groups are more likely to favor stricter laws than they were two years ago, but Democrats' preferences were already in place before the Parkland shooting. Since then, independents and Republicans have become more likely to want stricter gun laws.
  • A slim majority of Republicans, 52%, prefer that gun laws be kept as they are now, rather than becoming stricter. Just 6% of Republicans, down from 13% in 2016, say gun laws should be made less strict.
  • The average percentage mentioning guns has been 1% since Gallup began asking the most important problem question monthly in 2001.Guns now rank second as the most important problem in the country -- behind dissatisfaction with government, which 22% of Americans mention. Immigration, race relations and unifying the country are also mentioned by at least 5% of U.S. adults.

A record-high percentage name guns as the most Important problem.

Gun Control By Party

Image placeholder title

People will deny anything, so I will even provide excuses.

  1. Gallup is nothing but lies.
  2. The survey is wrong now, but it was accurate between 2008 and 2011.
  3. Before 2008 and after 2011, Gallup made up the data to appease the liberal media.

It's absurd to deny a shift in sentiment has take place, but comments to my post Gun Control Sentiment Shifts Dramatically show much absurdity.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (78)
No. 1-50
klausmkl
klausmkl

more polls showing classic yellow journalism. Every blog jumps on the bandwagon bias train. More clickbait. After England outlawed guns their gun violence escalated 30% the following year. The students are being used for useful idiots. The same students who are killing themselves through suicides at an alarming rate. suicides among young teenage girls has went from 2.2 % to 14.9% per 100k, in 20 years. The same young kids who eat tide pods. ]

Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock

Editor

It is idiotic to deny there is a shift in sentiment. Try a different tract: Sentiment shift is temporary, nothing will be done, anything but make statements that are proven idiocy.

flubber
flubber

Here are some interesting statistics compiled by ATF. Link is to most recent year I could find. Numbers shows that there are an awful lot of firearms produced, exported, and imported. From what I can tell, the AR15 is not broken down in the stats.....just listed as a 'rifle'. Thought Mish readers may find this interesting. https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/docs/undefined/firearms-commerce-united-states-annual-statistical-update-2017/download

JavaMe
JavaMe

I've got an idea. How about Congress pass a law specifically banning all Millennials from owning a weapon. Win--Win! Now everyone's happy.

JavaMe
JavaMe

Even better...Congress should pass a law banning all Democrats from owning a weapon

SweetKenny
SweetKenny

Its only when you get older that you realize the ignorance of your youth. The sentiment might be changing but the Supreme Court is still populated by adults. If there are changes they will be small - the 2nd Amendment will be upheld. This could cost Republicans in 2018 but that assumes the young vote in meaningful numbers which they haven’t in the past.

SweetKenny
SweetKenny

They can’t get guns outlawed without changing the 2nd Amendment. At best they can make it harder to buy and own them but all are going to hit the Supreme Court.
“In its June 26 decision, a 5-4 majority of the Supreme Court ruled that the Second Amendment confers an individual right to keep and bear arms, and that the D.C. provisions banning handguns and requiring firearms in the home disassembled or locked violate this right.”

Seb
Seb

Some guy quoted my “echo chamber” comment and said those that wrote the constitution were in an echo chamber. Bullshit. It started with Federalists vs Republicans/Democrats. We never agreed on anything to begin with. The constitution is NOT absolute!! Otherwise we wouldn’t be able to form what Lincoln termed “a more perfect union.” The implication being it’s up to us to make things better. So once again- GAME THEORY STATES THAT YOU BARGAIN OR YOU LOSE IT ALL!!! Don’t be an absolutist! You.... Will.... Fail!

Seb
Seb

Sorry- “never agreed on everything” not anything. Dang it mish how does one edit their comments?

ZZR600
ZZR600

Just for the sake of accuracy, gun are allowed in the UK, albeit under very tight licensing conditions. You require a police issued licence, renewed every 5 years, listing which weapons you're allowed to own/transfer. Ownership is dependent on need, usually meaning membership of a rifle club for target shooting, or for hunting.

Only 'Long rifles' i.e. >60cm overall length, are allowed in any calibre as long as it's not self loading. Only .22 semi-auto is allowed. Semi-auto pistols are not allowed, only in .22 calibre and with a minimum overall length of 60cm, achieved by extending the length of the barrel and adding a steel bar that protrudes from the pistol grip. Same for revolvers. Any calibre, but min 60cm. Black powder revolvers are allowed <60cm, but this is because as an offensive weapon they'd be pretty limited.

ZZR600
ZZR600

In my reference to .22 I mean .22 RF. Personally I think the ban on pistols and revolvers is too far and it doesn't really impact gun crime in the UK, almost all of which (with the exception of suicide and familial homicide) is done using illegally held (usually imported or converted) weapons. In the UK you're far more likely to be stabbed than shot. London and other large inner cities have a big problem with knife crime, but I can't see them outlawing the ownership of knives!

Rayner-Hilles
Rayner-Hilles

@Mish The problem with gallup polls is they're naturally biased towards left-wing sample. Two key observations you have to remember about right-left wing psychology: left-wingers are higher in trait openness (more likely to spare time to answer a survey) and they are more likely to be pro-technology and live in an urban area (these polls are taken over the phone are they not?). Gallup does not and indeed cannot control for these two factors (even if you are an independent or a registered republican, you are still more likely to be relatively left leaning within those groups).

I am willing to entertain that there genuinely are more left wingers than right wingers in the country. The right can seem politically larger than it is because in being the more rural base they're represented better in a land-biased constitutional democracy. Thing is, the right, particularly the religious right, are inclined to have more children. So it's not given that this will hold. Rising standards of living usually help to convert people to a left-wing temperament, but we of course know that's not going to continue. We might be living through a left-wing political peak in the 2010s-20s. So if we are going to see stricter gun laws it might be now or never.

Gsoldato
Gsoldato

Nope did not it miss. You did miss that we are not Australia thou?

In an op-ed for the New York Times written after Sandy Hook, John Howard, the prime minister who oversaw the passage of Australia’s current gun laws, implored Americans to consider his nation’s example. Yet Howard fully understood the fundamental irrelevance of his country’s laws to the United States, and undermined his case by highlighting the differences between the two countries.

Our challenges were different from America’s. Australia is an even more intensely urban society, with close to 60 percent of our people living in large cities. Our gun lobby isn’t as powerful or well-financed as the National Rifle Association in the United States. Australia, correctly in my view, does not have a Bill of Rights, so our legislatures have more say than America’s over many issues of individual rights, and our courts have less control. Also, we have no constitutional right to bear arms. (After all, the British granted us nationhood peacefully; the United States had to fight for it.)

http://thefederalist.com/2015/06/25/the-australia-gun-control-fallacy/

wootendw
wootendw

A significant number of NRA members - probably a majority - are cops or veterans or both. Such people are highly respected by politicians. I may have mentioned this before on this site but I'll do so again. The last major gun legislation was enacted in August of 1994. Shortly afterwards, Mike Synar, the 4th leading Democrat in the House was ousted in a primary election by a guy who campaigned from the back of a pickup truck. Two months later, the GOP took over the House for the first time in 40 years. Many gun rights advocates come from traditional democrat states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. With these people, a politician can be right on every other issue but if he's for gun control, he's wrong.

Rayner-Hilles
Rayner-Hilles

@Mish Ah but my argument is Mish is the change in sentiment is mostly internal to the left... okay I am defining this unconventionally as a psychological left than a republican-democrat basis... let's say there is a political change in sentiment among all those who are psychologically capable of that sentiment change... doesn't sound very profound does it? But it's important I tell you, because it means increasing polarization, and that's what I am saying is being lost in your argument.

Rayner-Hilles
Rayner-Hilles

Psychological political profiling is fascinating by the way Mish. Did you know Libertarians are the group with by far the highest IQ and emotional self control?
http://reason.com/archives/2014/06/13/are-conservatives-dumber-than-liberals
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0042366

Realist
Realist

First, Mish, being a good blogger, is merely using controversial topics to generate interest and comments. Congrats on doing a good job Mish. Second; this topic illustrates why I would never live in the US. There are too many angry and crazy gun lovers. Third; the gun debate is a lot like the health care debate. I don’t think a whole lot will change; the US will continue to have mass shootings, in schools, and everywhere else. There will be very little effective gun control, in spite of this trend change that Mish sees coming.

Kinuachdrach
Kinuachdrach

So according to Gallup, the biggest problem seen by Americans is dissatisfaction with government (22%). And the Second Amendment -- put in place after Americans had fought a war to get rid of a government with which they were dissatisfied -- was there as the last resort against the emergence of just the kind of overbearing irresponsible Deep State-type government that a lot of those 22% of people are probably concerned about. Now, does the Second Amendment matter any more in this much more technological era? We have already seen President Bill Clinton deploy tanks & helicopters against American citizens at Waco, burning women & children to death -- and without even a hint of a suggestion that his vile act merited punishment. Instead of continuously whining, it would be much more constructive for the anti-gun crowd to give some thought to a replacement for the Second Amendment which would be an effective last resort when a population has to rise up against the kind of overbearing excessive government we see growing in the Swamp.

tedr01
tedr01

I honestly don't think that most Americans will have a problem with new, tighter regulations when it comes to selling guns to people that have mental illnesses. Ditto for banning the sell of certain automatic weapons to the general public. Leave the automatic weapons to the military and police. Just my opinion.

Carl_R
Carl_R

It's no doubt true that this poll is as accurate as the ones that predicted the winner of the Presidential election - that is to say, within a few percentage points, and since any bias is consistent, the trend change that it shows is no doubt accurate.
As far as gun control legislation, and the Constitution, while it's true that the constitution is fairly clear as regards the right to private ownership of guns, clarity never stopped the Supreme Court in the past. For example, what could be more clear than saying that the Federal Government has only specific enumerated powers? Sure, that's clear enough, and sounds restrictive, but with a little creativity, the court was able to turn the grant of power to "regulate commerce among the several states" to be a grant of total and infinite power. I'm sure that if they are so inclined, they can creatively read the second amendment in some equally peculiar way so as to permit whatever they are inclined to permit.

Mattbeau
Mattbeau

I see Mish post tons of "polls" but never ONCE have I heard him mention the Constitution. Why is that? Just curious.

Mattbeau
Mattbeau

As for "Westside Fireman" posted above, who apparently thinks his opinion carries more weight because he decided to be cannon fodder or couldn't become a productive member of society due to lower intelligence, I really don't care about your opinion jut because you shipped off to Afghanitan. I don't do military worship. I view the military as a wasteland for small-town low-IQ yokels who wanted to get out and "see the world". Your opinion carries zero weight.

Mattbeau
Mattbeau

Posting a tons of polls, as Mish does, only lends weight to the 20%-30% of Americans who are retards, by any definition. Check an IQ bell curve....there are 35 to 50 millions Americans who are literally semi-retarded. I place zero value in their opinion or poll results. The Constitution rules the land....and until Mish pays it lip service, I won't be back here again. I quit this site once for a year, due to Mish's ignorant gun-control bullshit. I'll do it again in a second. Especially considering how wrong he's been on just about everything since.

Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock

Editor

Thanks - Goodbye. As for the constitution, please look it up, and tell me what it says about "well-regulated militias" instead of truncating a sentence as you see fit.

Axiom7
Axiom7

Mish, probably many of the posters here are professional (or perhaps amateur) trolls and won't seem to discuss your core hypothesis - whether there has been a significant actionable change in the outlook on tightening of gun laws. Maybe you should create another moderated post and any response which is in favor or against gun regulation will not be accepted?

So, speaking to the Gallup stats - taking into account the likely bias, you have dems which are 90% for control (which has not changed) and you have repubs who are still less than 50% for control - which implies the deadlock continues.

Gun control comes down to the red state / blue state split and the battle lines have only hardened. I still haven't seen any anecdotal nor hard data to imply that "change is coming".

And banning bump stocks doesn't count.

SpiderPig
SpiderPig

The level of support for tighter gun regulations is where it was just before the assault weapons ban was passed.
Restrictions like magazine size, mandatory registration (already used in several states), bump stock ban, and more comprehensive background checks are constitutionally permissible and have political tailwinds.
Change is coming. Part of my job is selling firearms. I relatively seldom sell to a first time buyer. The ones buying are getting a coyote gun to go with their deer rifle or a shotgun to go with their pistol. Gun sales may be up in total, but a smaller portion of the population is buying. And before anyone asks, my state went 65% for Trump.

Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock

Editor

FelixMish
FelixMish

For those interested in information, the following link seems very good:

FelixMish
FelixMish

Yeah, yeah, Mother Jones. Old hippies channeling their crystals to communicate with ... blah blah. But something is weird and unexpected over at MJ. Someone there seems to be interested in starting from facts first.

FelixMish
FelixMish

Their list has ~100 'mass shootings'.

FelixMish
FelixMish

Couple quick things are apparent:

FelixMish
FelixMish

1) The Association of Nut Job Shooter's EOA Report will look real good with respect to race. But they are going to have the feds down on them like a ton of bricks on gender. They look like an advanced tech company with no HR and no PR people. All male.

FelixMish
FelixMish

School shootings average about once every couple years. That's out of 140,000 schools in the US, currently. So no need for students to cower beneath their desks any time soon. Tornadoes don't hit schools nearly as often, we can note. But, they could be in the running with a couple really bad weather reports.

FelixMish
FelixMish

And they don't happen at all in most of the States.

FelixMish
FelixMish

The idea that these nuts are primarily motivated by fame doesn't seem too good. If you're going strictly for fame, you gotta figure you should make a bee line for the free fire zones where the cops are on your side until you pull the trigger. And where the targets are maximally fame-inducing. Elementary schools. But, schools are a mid-range category. Workplace and Other top the charts. (Other is malls, stores, etc.)

Mattbeau
Mattbeau

Here is what is says:

Mattbeau
Mattbeau

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

Mattbeau
Mattbeau

Your point? What did I truncate? I stand by my assertion that you rarely, if ever, mention the Constitution. Yet you post polls over and over. I really don't care what 52% of American idiots think today, after a knee-jerk reaction to a shooting. Knee-jerk reactions are what gave us the Patriot Act...which I assume you oppose? Not sure. The Constitution is the supreme law of the land. Not some poll of morons the day after a shooting. You are dead wrong on this.

Hammeringtruth
Hammeringtruth
MntGoat
MntGoat

The mass shootings are what create gun control conversations and mass media attention. But in terms of % of the total killed by firearms annually in America, the mass shootings are a mere tiny rounding error of the total. What 700+ killed by firearms annually in a year JUST in Chicago mostly black on black??? Chicago in one year has more killed by firearms then ALL the mass shootings in what 30 yrs?!! Most of the gun violence in America is disproportionately black on black and hispanic on hispanic. I'm not making a statement for or against gun control. Just a mere observance of a fact that is ALWAYS missed in the left wing media. Probably 75% of the perpetrators of gun deaths in America are folks who vote Democrat (or would if they did vote). Just wanted to make this point.

Irondoor
Irondoor

There is no mention of the 100,000,000 guns in America owned by law-abiding citizens of this country. Only that an 18 year-old shouldn't have one. In fact, the guns are not the problem. Millions upon millions of guns lie peacefully in their safes, drawers, holsters, etc. for years, decades on end. Most of them never being fired. Billions of rounds of ammunition wait silently with them. What have these inert guns and bullets done to make people who don't even know them or own one of them demand that they be sacrificed on the alter of "child safety"? Childish stupidity and immature bleating for attention and useful idiots of those who would attack, destroy and "fundamentally change America" according to Obama. These people are the Sheep. They cry for and demand that Sheepdogs risk their lives for them and I don't mean just the police. Anybody with the guts to stand up to terror. But they would restrict the very tools of the trade of the Sheepdog upon whom they depend to defend them from the Wolf. The Sheepdog is the one who makes the decision for what weapons he needs to do his work, not the Sheep. Shut up and go back to school and learn about the real world.

Realist
Realist

Iron door says there are 100 million guns and billions of rounds of ammunition in the hands of legal gun owners. Really? Assuming that’s true, what an incredible waste of money! No wonder so many Americans have so little saved for their retirement, and can’t afford health care. Imagine if they put those resources to some kind of productive use instead?

MntGoat
MntGoat

I think its a really fascinating that places that generally have the most vocal 2nd amendment supporters and high rates of gun ownership, actually have really LOW rates of gun violence. Red states full of gun zealots such as MT, ID, WY, ND, SD, etc..actually have very little gun violence. And even red states that do have gun violence....say like TX, AL, MO, TN, LA, etc.......that gun violence almost exclusively takes place in the BLUE dots within those red states. So its interesting that conservatives are the supporters of gun rights, yet Democrats commit the vast majority of the gun violence in America, And they commit that gun violence in mostly Democrat heavy areas.


Global Economics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY