Apple is supply constrained and Revenue Projections Will Fall Short Due to Coronavirus.
Apple Inc. became the first major U.S. company to say it won’t meet its revenue projections for the current quarter due to the coronavirus outbreak, which it said had limited iPhone production for world-wide sales and curtailed demand for its products in China.
Apple had last month projected record revenue for the current quarter of between $63 billion and $67 billion, which it said was a wider than normal range due to the virus. The technology giant on Monday didn’t provide an updated sales estimate, saying that the situation in China is evolving. It said it would provide more information when it holds its earnings call in April.
The difficulties are extending into supply chains around the world. Volkswagen AG said Monday it would postpone production restarts at some Chinese plants for another week. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV last week said it temporarily halted production in Serbia because it could not get parts from China, which continues to deal with manufacturing delays as it seeks to contain the spread of the virus.
Sudden Spike in Japan Coronavirus Cases
Please consider 11 infected on Tokyo tour boat, likely transmitted coronavirus to non-passengers
A sudden spike in new coronavirus cases was confirmed among attendees at a New Year’s party for independent taxi drivers held on a traditional “yakatabune” river tour boat in the capital.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government says the virus may be spreading in the capital, as people not at the party — including an office worker and a chauffeur — were also confirmed infected, and is calling for measures to prevent transmission. It provided information on the route of infection among party attendees at a Feb. 16 press conference.
The New Year’s party was held on Jan. 18 by a branch of a private taxi union based in Tokyo’s Jonan area, and was attended by about 70 taxi drivers and their families who dined on the boat. However, the windows were shut due to heavy rain, creating a confined space with insufficient ventilation — the kind of environment where disease spreads more easily.
An independent taxi driver in his 70s, who participated in the party along with his wife, had tested positive in Tokyo. He is the son-in-law of a woman in her 80s from Kanagawa Prefecture, south of Tokyo, who died on Feb. 13 — Japan’s first confirmed fatality from the COVID-19 illness.
Two people who were not on board the tourist boat also tested positive for the new virus: a female employee with the union branch in her 50s, who had contact with the taxi driver at work, and a doctor in his 60s at Makita General Hospital in Tokyo’s Ota Ward.
Lockdown Hits 760 Million, Half of China
In case you still want to compared this to the flu, at least 760 million people are Locked Down in China according to a New York Times analysis of government announcements in provinces and major cities. That’s more than half the country’s population.
Housing complexes in some cities have issued the equivalents of paper hall passes to regulate how often residents leave their homes. Apartment buildings have turned away their own tenants if they have come from out of town. Train stations block people from entering cities if they cannot prove they live or work there. In the countryside, villages have been gated off with vehicles, tents and other improvised barriers.
At a high-speed rail station in the eastern city of Yiwu this past week, workers in hazmat suits demanded that passengers send the text messages that show their location data before being allowed to leave.
An app developed by a state-run maker of military electronics lets Chinese citizens enter their name and national ID number and be told whether they may have come in contact, on a plane, train or bus, with a carrier of the virus.
In Zhejiang, one of China’s most developed provinces and home to Alibaba and other technology companies, people have written on social media about being denied entry to their own apartments in Hangzhou, the provincial capital.
The eastern city of Nanjing requires anybody who takes a cab to show ID and leave contact information. Yunnan Province wants all public places to display QR codes that people must scan with their phones whenever they enter or exit.
Chen Guangsheng, the deputy secretary general of Zhejiang’s provincial government, called it “inappropriate” that some places had employed “simple and crude practices,” like locking people into their homes to enforce quarantines.
Other than 760 million people in some form of lockdown, supply disruptions, warnings from carmakers and phone makers, this is still no worse than the flu.
After all, deaths are only 1,868 (assuming you actually believe that number).
If this takes off in Tokyo, look out.
Japan Update From Bianco
Thanks
Will add that to my post! https://t.co/FGGCkFJ0Fo— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 18, 2020
Not the Princess
Virus Probably With Us Beyond 2020
The above from Coronavirus Expert Opinions.
CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield says “I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we’ll get community based transmission and you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don’t understand this virus.“
Also note Harvard Professor Says Global Coronavirus Pandemic is Likely
Finally, please consider Coronavirus Tweets of the Day on many facets of the disease.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
There’s a WSJ article reporting that 542 of roughly 2,300 Yokohama cruise ship passengers tested, (out of 3,700) tested positive so far.
If one applies the ratios from the Wuhan data to these 542, one would expect 15 deaths:
542 X 20% “serious” X 14% of “serious” dying = @ 15 deaths to be expected. This would put it in the range of 26 times worse than garden variety flu if it duplicated the Wuhan experience nationwide. There are apparently lots of ways to die from pneumonia: Fungi, various bacteria lying dormant waiting for a weakened immune system, etc. The lack of deaths outside Wuhan is starting to ring my bell.
I’m beginning to suspect something’s different in Wuhan’s ambient air; There aren’t enough deaths outside China,(fortunately!), and I doubt the difference is explained merely by hygiene. If so, the French would all be dead by now.
Has anyone seen detailed data on cause of deaths in Wuhan?
I looked and looked but could not find anything. Air pollution causes up to 211/100000 pneumonia deaths per year (as opposed to 28 in the US) but that is across China.
Although it doesn’t answer your question, if you can get the paper below to load (takes an age) then there are some interesting tables in there. It appears the CFR is dropping over time. I think the most likely explanation for this is not that medical care is improving, or the virus is becoming less lethal, but rather that there were a LOT more cases in Wuhan than were being counted. Note that the uptick in cases last week, when the counting definition changed, still only counted those who had reported sick. Anybody who had mild symptoms and thus didn’t go to a hospital, or was sick but didn’t report it for fear of round ups, is still not being counted.
Thanks for that link! Excellent data there. I compared the distribution of cases to the distribution of ages of people in China. I found:
Age 0-20 – Only got Covid 10% as often
Age 21-29 – Only got Covid 50% as often
Age 30-50 – Got Covid about 10% more often than average
Age 50-60 – Got Covid 60% more than average
Age 61+ – Got Covid 80% more than average
Then we look at mortality:
Age 0-9: No one died
Age 10-30: 0.2% died
Age 40-50: 0.4% died
Age 50-60: 1.3% died
Age 60-70: 3.6% died
Age 70-80: 8.0% died
Age 80+: 14.8% died
So, the older you are, the more likely you are to get it, AND the more likely you are to die if you do get it. The death rate almost triples every ten years over 50. Gender was also a factor. 1.9% of males died, compared to 1.2% of females.
Taken together, an 80 year old man is 80% more likely than average to get it, 10x more likely to die if he gets it, and another 50% higher death rate for being a male. Thus he is 27 more likely to die than the average person. A 65 year old male is 80% more likely to get it, 2.4 more likely to die if they do get it due to age, and 50% more likely to die due to gender, or a total of 6 times as likely as the average person. Meanwhile people under 50 are pretty safe, especially women.
Throw in other health issues, such as hypertension, diabetes, heart problems, cancer,and respiratory problems, and you can triple the death chance again, but flip it, and if you DON’T have any of those, you cut the death chance by 2/3.
Yep, but note that this data is still skewed by Wuhan. I am certain that the number of actual cases is still a lot, lot higher there. Since air pollution and social structures are similar across the cities of Hubei province, there is no other obvious reason why the cfr is so much higher there.
I think the cfr will be lower, but the sheer scale of the spread is the issue. Maybe 200-250,000 excess deaths in the U.K. (which is about 150% of the usual numbers).
After seeing those numbers, and thinking about it, I wonder how much of a factor age really is? As you look at older groups, there is going to be a lot higher incidence of things like hypertension, diabetes, cancer, heart problems, and respiratory problems that is going to explain a great deal of the increasing death rate. While an 80 year old man may be 10x more likely to die, on average, most of that increase is probably due to age-related increases in other health factors. If he is healthy and has none of those other markers, it may only be 2x as likely.
Note in particular this data. The percent of patients who died with the following co-morbid conditions:
Cardiovascular: 10.5%
Diabetes: 7.9%
Respiratory: 6.3%
Hypertension: 6.0%
Cancer: 5.6%
Unknown or no data: 2.6%
No co-morbid conditions: 0.9%
To beat this, stay healthy. Your are 8 times more likely to die if you have any of the co-morbid conditions.
People ask whether China’s drastic action is consistent with the data. I think it is. Consider what China might look like today had they not taken dramatic action. Wuhan’s medical facilities were overwhelmed, and the death rate skyrocketed to 10% initially.
In the absence or radical action, the rest of China would have no doubt experienced the same thing. With an R0 of 4, or close, the bulk of China could been infected within months, and medical facilities would have been overwhelmed everywhere. The cost of non-action, even based on what we know, would have been massive.
By implementing radical quarantines, they cut the R0 to under 1, and it appears to be slowing in China. Has the problem been avoided? Or postponed? What will happen when China attempts to re-open? We may very well see a second wave of infections, and then what?
A related question is, what will other countries do when faced with a Wuhan-like explosion of cases? Can they limit the spread without a country-wide shutdown?
I just cannot see this being controlled. Despite all the measures introduced, it only takes one family to conceal one sick person from the door to door checkers and the second wave is certain.
What would be a pity is if all the work done by China is undone by lax behaviour elsewhere. If they can get control of an epidemic with probably 100,000 cases, there really is no excuse for other countries throwing the towel in with just a few dozen.
My guess is that China will hold the line another few weeks, by which time the CFR will have come down to less than 0.5% and people will worry about something else.
The good news is that this virus mutates a lot less than SARS and MERS. So second wave may not be worse than first.
I believe people are dying. But what if China, with lower world consumption, actually wants to shut down manufacturing and exhaust an oversupply of goods to bring things back towards equilibrium? Death rates are within normal (unless some bit of news has come out I haven’t seen) ranges and they’re more or less shutting down the country. It would also allow time and an excuse for restructuring loans and build demand for goods and services. Global travel is such that if this was a highly contagious outbreak I’d expect more cases further away from ground zero.
I think that would be a very high risk strategy.
If I was Tim Cook, I’d be screaming at my supply chain people to diversify my manufacturing.
Just out of interest, I have just picked up every item on my desk, from phone, to laptop, to laptop stand, to QI phone charger, to tape measure, to water bottle, to speaker system and portable air conditioner.
Guess what?
Yes, a really clever plot.
Have you ever watched how Wylie Coyote tries to get the Roadrunner?
Ok, so let’s talk about something more immediately important for those in the US: Exactly how much of China export is shutdown? Are we able to send anything there? And exactly how long is going to be before we start noticing an impact on things we really need…………not crap like playstations.
The numbers appear to be consistent:
-80% tingling to minor cold
-15% pneumonia
-3-5% requiring ICU
“While the results largely confirm previous descriptions of the virus and patterns of infection, the study includes a detailed breakdown of the 44,672 confirmed cases across all of China.
It finds that 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical. The number of deaths among those infected, known as the fatality rate, remains low but rises among those over 80 years old. “
The difference between China and the rest of the world is China has a 6 weeks head start. There’s no containing it now. The only thing you can do is protect yourself.
I went to Best Buy yesterday wanting to look at new electronics for the new house in Florida, I asked about the new PlayStation 5 which I have long awaited preordering for, it has been pushed back by more than a year already. Bad news, Coronavirus means they can’t get the supplies they need and production is not going to plan, the PS5 is going to be late. Originally scheduled for release in time for the 2020 holiday season it now will be 2021. Sony and the retailers that would have sold it like Best Buy are going to get hammered.
Also, headline at CNBC this morning, Walmart missed on holiday sales Dow futures down over 160 because of it.
Walmart earnings miss as holiday season disappoints, outlook falls short of estimates
the retailer saw weak demand for toys, apparel and video games during the holiday season.
The video component is big, people have been waiting years for the PS4 replacement and who in their right mind is going to buy a PS4 at $399-499 when there is a new PS5 supposedly due out later this year? I know I won’t even though I gave away my Playstation when I left the country in January 2017. I held out for the new PS5 rather than buy something that would be obsolete within months. Now I wishI had bought one since I have had no game console for going on two years. And who knows when they will now allow orders to be taken.
Great micro-analysis.
Wouldn’t it be less expensive and disruptive to institute modern hygiene practices in this backwards country?
Instituting modern hygiene might help reduce the future transfer of viruses from wild animals to man, but would not help control COVID-19. The Death Princess, er, Diamond Princess, has modern hygiene, and the virus was quite capable of spreading there.
Upset stomachs on cruises is not unheard of. I wouldnt bet on the hygiene levels.
When you have that many people that close together, stuff is going to be passed around. I won’t claim that hygiene is perfect on cruise ships, but in no way is it comparable to the hygiene in wet markets. My point is that raising the hygiene levels in China from the level in wet markets to the level in cruise ships, while a good thing, would not necessarily prevent the spread of disease.
If it was the wet market.
Interesting – on Saturday the Chinese Institute of Science mandated tighter controls in Chinese labs and alluded to previous slack procedures.
“Also, a paper that appeared in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet at the end of last month has lent credibility to speculation about the origins of the virus. The paper quoted seven doctors at Wuhan’s Jinyintan Hospital as saying that the first patient admitted on December 1 had “never been to the wet market,” nor had there been any epidemiological link between the first patient and subsequent infection cases, based on the data from the first 41 patients treated there.
Furthermore, a note from the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology is seen as a tacit admission that some kind of incident may have occurred at the Wuhan lab.”
Furthermore as like the HIV it enter and finally kill some white cells, the collapse of the Immune system is noticed in some Chinese deaths.
These informations on the virus result from an interesting article translated courtesy Jennifer Zang on (Mish given) Twitter link.
So far it is being “reassuringly” described as mild for 80% by WHO, but the virus is nasty, no other way to describe it. The failure of tests makes me wonder if low level quiet infection is possible long before symptoms and after recovery, a virus we can’t get rid of and that seems to reinfect.
I think it’s time for people to calm down . We are layering rumour on supposition, with very few facts.
Many years ago, my History teacher, a paratrooper who fought across Europe, made us play a little game. He took about 3/4s of us, made us all put blindfolds on, and told us to imagine that we were standing in light woodland on a moonless night. Then he played a tape on which we heard some engine noises and gunfire. We then had to discuss amongst ourselves and report back to command (the other individuals) on what we had seen and heard. Conclusion: from individual reports, the commanders concluded that there was a tank battalion attacking positions in front of us. Actual source of sound: sounds made by his vintage tractor. His point was that the reality of any front line environment is very different to how we imagine it. When we imagine the great battles of the war, and how we might, as individuals, react in those situations, we see things from above, with near perfect information. However, people on the ground perceive things very differently – the next tree, or the walls of an apartment – and if they do not have perfect information – which they never do – they have a tendency to report the worst. The people reading these reports assume that the reporters have perfect information and tend to assume the worst too. And what’s more, when information doesn’t appear to tally, they assume that the reporters are either incompetent, or part of a conspiracy.
This is what I have concluded:
That is how I like to think of it also.
However.
Firstly, I don’t rest at simple explanations – past experience, active imagination, turning each stone methodically etc. So I don’t have a fixed point of view and am at ease (relatively speaking) accepting uncertainty and the reality that there is no certainty here.
Secondly, the virus even if mostly mild, is a nasty piece of work. How it activates in, or effects certain people only, is not understood. It can reinfect or maybe perdure in a host. It might also change to become more lethal.
Thirdly, it seems able to quietly infect to pandemic proportions, whether asymptomatic transmission or by high contagiability.
Add those up and it is bad enough, add in incompetence or conspiracy and it is much worse.
Firstly, apologies for replying to you – it was a general comment but for some reason I can’t reply to Mish’s post directly.
I think it is the speed of transmission that has everybody spooked. But if you look at the statistics this is not going to hurt most people. I am hearing people in my office saying that 15% of people are dying. They aren’t. Outside of Wuhan, its a lot, lot less and the panicked people in my office are in the lowest risk groups anyway (my own risk is higher but hey, what is life without excitement!).
The one thing I am not clear on – and maybe somebody knows the answer to this – is what type of illness is described as “severe”? For instance, the recent fatality in Japan was described as “having severe illness for several days before being moved to intensive care”. I had assumed that “severe” meant intubation and the need for a critical care bed, but maybe not. This definition warrants clarification, because it will give us a view of how many cases we can have before the healthcare system melts down. If severe cases can be cared for in any hospital bed, that is good news.
I have seen “severe” described an pneumonia and 3-5% requiring hospitalization.
Im not sure as to specifics as to what exact definition of severe they are using?
When you can’t reply to Mish’s original post directly, look to see if you have some reply windows open to comments, and try closing them. Their software is somewhat buggy, and if you don’t keep closing all reply windows when done, you can’t always reply where you want to.
“If severe cases can be cared for in any hospital bed, that is good news.”
Probably can’t due to transmission to health staff, some partition needed in the facility. Disaster if the hospital also houses elderly and very young not to mention staff repeatedly exposed before having immunity. The dead 34 yr old Dr is one example.
You asked previously what would happen if all travel (you said flights but let’s say travel) to UK were stopped, point blank.
I don’t see a major problem with this. By order of importance :
People who have to be in UK by absolute nescessity – technical workers, engineers, staff who need the experience of presence to coordinate. These are a very small subset of all travellers, smaller still that cannot be temporarily covered while quarantining, or be partly effective remotely. Still, that would be largest disruption to the directly constructive economy. This group would likely be most understanding, as they know discipline.
Service sector, general staff, communicators, students and proffessors and so on – disruptive but not overly so. A lot of modern activity is not strictly nescessary. Decisions, communication , participation can occur remotely. After adjustment it would create a change in planning, no visits abroad for the shorter holidays while studying as the flow of people would be via a delay of quarantine.
Holidaymakers, expats and leisure etc – well tough. Would be dramatic, a commotion as everyone replanned and re-patriated or not, hostility and accusation for any losses. Afterwards travel activity would be curtailed to a large degree.
However, many people would not be happy with or accept this type of management, it would take time for it to filter through to being “normal” . Also it is possible the virus might be introduced to UK anyway.
I’m not including political or financial, just basic day to day activity, as in how the world goes round in terms of nescessity, that there is space there for that to continue without impossibly unacceptable disruption.
Just my thoughts on that.
I agree on all points. Most people I know would either not be affected (except for holiday plans) or are able to work remotely, like me.
Massive impacts on airlines and tourist businesses, obviously. But it seems to me that the impact on those is going to be a long tail anyway. Even if this blows over in a year, people are going to be cautious.
The long term will be interesting. The Black Death got us the end of feudalism, better buildings, the domination of the English language over Latin, the Middle Class.
Could we see:
All of those are possible in my opinion, obviously depending on what direction the virus takes . Open borders happened in great part due to lack of control, that is to say slack registry both at border and afterwards, EU is hopeless with regards but probably purposeful. If society tightens then not just the border but hierarchy within a country will be more transparent and more pointed, it won’t welcome those who are trailing through, or not contributing, or who expect exception. A change of mood would see some leave, would dissuade new migration, and travel difficulty would make international commuting less feasible, making people choose home country or foreign country but not an easy combination of the two. Trouble is that there might be some heavy tensions because of changes like that. UK picked up net ten million population in ten years migrating from outside EU if I remember, that is not counting first generation births etc. – that is a lot of influence or public force to deal with if it gets unhappy. A lot of migrant population don’t know the old way in Europe, they might fight it.
Who knows , it is worth the consideration though because one thing is near sure and that is that europe and UK are not going to stay the way they are now, for various reasons (not including a pandemic).
Yep, 10 million. And last year 200,000 new births from non-UK born mothers.
The argument goes that we need these young people to look after our elderly.
But you need to be earning about £34k to be a net contributor in the UK. 39% of UK families take out more than they put in (this rises to 59% if you include pensioners. Because of the obsession with “lifting people out of tax”, 42% of UK adults pay no income tax. So whether you are a racist or just own a calculator, adding more low paid and unskilled workers to the economy is going to create problems, yet bizarrely studies always conclude that EU migrants are always a net positive.
I was watching something this week about the fishing industry. Fish packing business in Cornwall, nearly all the workers were migrants. “Who will do these jobs” said the owner.
That is a valid question. But a better one is why we have +/- 1.5 million people sitting around on benefits.
And an even better one is why our entire welfare system penalises high earners who have children, when they are the very people likely to create net contributors.
Of course these things seem to be hidden from sight, giving people the view that high earners are not paying their share. If you have kids and earn between £100k and £126k, you may well have a marginal rate of “tax” that exceeds 100%, if you include a reducing personal allowance (which alone creates a 62% tax rate), and entitlement to free nursery hours. But point that out to somebody and you’ll be met with “nobody should earn that much”.
Envy, Idleness, Entitlement. A lot has got to change.
The EU studies are based on volume, not real individual returns, and the figures are skewed towards monetary values, i.e. all spending has knock on positive effect on gdp figures and therefore total wealth measured. This expansion of money supply and specific inflation is covered by real world deflation to give us our “happy 2%” ( outsourcing of labour abroad, China being an example, and productivity gains).
It is all false in real terms, it is a set of false values. In the west we are pampered, and sure few want to pack crates, but how many more cannot afford housing due to overcrowding ?
The model is plain wrong, not because it creates a competitive environment, but one of privilege that becomes detached and corrupt, becomes used for political and financial reward.
Put another way, in western europe I’m very familiar with other styles of living, so I can vouch for one family that gets by quite happily with about four hundred pounds a month. Unreal no ? You are talking 30k a year, I’m talking 5k a year ! However that is not including housing, the biggest burden. Not everyone wants a quiet place in the countryside, lots of space to pursue whatever interests etc. I suppose :/ .
Families are targeted, because families gather the most wealth for being privileged by society to raise their family – privileged by society, not government. Government privileges those that will adhere to or vote for it, the needy and basically what are ironically self described as proletariat of whatever origin – it gets to the point where people are paid to reproduce, and therefore a sick society. It’s a very bad joke. There is a lot of history to how it came to this. I study nationality law also, I won’t start here…except it is funny to see London’s Khan looking to EU for associate nationality. Opinion is EU won’t accept for “cherry picking” nature of the proposal, but I wonder, because to grant EU nationality is a long term goal of theirs (and goodbye individual nationality). If there is an alternate to re-nationalisation created by this virus, it is one of supra-nationalism where a wider more regionalist/globalist centralised control emerges.
Too much writing and thinking , I have to go and do something useful now 🙂
Interesting points about the UK economic situation. I wonder what the break even point for the US is, in terms of being a net contributor? It could be higher, given the cost of US medical care and that it gets paid for one way or another by people who pay that much more in insurance.
WHY THIS VIRUS IS WORSE THAN SARS?
Because like the HIV (AIDS) but unlike the SARS virus, it enter the cells generally with very few Immune System reactions that mean unnoticed (symptom free) resulting in an incubation period that may be long. Combine that with the Flu type virus which is very contagious and you have a real challenge facing the medical community
That is due to the fact that the proteins (S) used to force the genetic material of the virus (ARN in this case) into the cells with adequate receptors for it (lungs, hearth, kidneys, vascular system and even dendritic white cells (AC2 receptors), liver (with another receptor)) is of the same type as the one of the HIV. These proteins dont enter into the cell (unlike the SARS and FLU virus) and then this fact impede a reaction from the immune system (cytokine, interferon…) which make you sick
If China locked down half of their population so far I assume that is the only way for them to (try) keep a control on the virus spreading. That is bad news anyway as it indicate the real severity of that new epidemic.
Their medical system indicate a lack of manpower and supplies ressources in various areas already.
The worse scenario pointed out by some medical authorities in the know of that kind of virus possible pandemic if no war-like containment methods are used, that is a final infection of two third of the world population.
This will, if the pandemic spread worldwide as fast as in China WUHAN area, not cause a recession, a depression but an economic implosion! That would mean, besides up to 130 millions of death, that up to 650 millions people (15 per cent) would be in SEVERE condition worldwide and furthermore there would be lockdowns everywhere.
In the meantime, news are slow to be followed by an effect as Official Medical reports in China last week indicated that spreaders may be symptoms free up to 24 days. When will quarantine period be extended to at least 24 days everywhere on earth?
In the same token, research made by scientific on the basis of the SARS-coronavirus indicated that it could survive on supports up to 28 days in the right condition of hygrometry and temperature. It took time in China to organise disinfection of the environment and usual objects
as even money coins.
However, the worse is hopefully not necessarily the final outcome of a terrible process if serious fighting methods are carefully prepared and eventually enter application if needed .
Apart from large swathes of the world in poverty with little to no health care. Also tends to be where the birth rate is currently higher.
Calm down please!
A couple of prominent Chinese MDs, including Wuhan hospital director, have died from Corona. What does that say about effectiveness of preventing and treating the virus? What does it hint at for the health of ordinary caregivers in Wuhan when these bigwigs die and Red Army rushes in 25000 med workers?
There are going to be waves of secondary diseases and food shortages hitting next, you can’t lock down half the country and send out for Chinese food for 760 million
What does it say about the risks of exposing yourself daily to many, many patients with a serious disease, while getting little to no sleep and possibly enduring the ravages of smoking and air pollution.
All of these affect immune system function.
It tells you that Chinese doctors and nurses, like doctors and nurses everywhere, are brave and courageous, and daily put themselves at risk, risking exposures to numerous pathogens, trying to care for their patients, and that sometimes they pay the ultimate price.
It suggests healthcare systems could collapse so those dependent upon them for other diseases may also have increased risk of death.
Training new staff to the appropriate level of care with infectious disease takes time and also introduces a period of increased risk until they are up to speed.
All meals prepared in China are, by necessity, chinese food.
Nobody knows the transmission path, the incubation length (14 or 24 days?) and testing returns numerous false negatives. Isolating quickly from China was a good start but there’s no real solution.
I wonder what this A-hole would do if the USA faced such a problem and he was in charge?
link to twitter.com
Blame China. The world will learn the hard way.
1 st quarter earnings? “Smithers, get those GAAP reporting rules changed, pronto”.
The bioweapon went airborne,this is not adding up,Beijeng playin us,PLA secret nerve agent that got loose and they have no way to control and there’s no antidote.
And you know this how?
Senator Cotton
Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Cotton also asked if it is an engineered virus, no one said anything about a nerve agent
I see. Wonder what was his source.
If it was engineered they didn’t finish the job before it escaped. It should have either had an anti-viral ready or been readied to only hit the enemies gene pool.
It’s hard to believe this us totally natural. Just as hard as it is to believe the Chinese numbers or that it only takes the old, infirm or very young.
And yet we have no evidence that what the Chinese are telling us isn’t correct.
Old, infirm, those with other major health risks.
Not the best bioweapon. You’d want one that selected for the young and healthy – the 1918 flu, in other words. Would also have the benefit of looking very natural.
Some thoughts. Watch the transmission ratios in more developed countries – Japan etc – then compare to the Chinese numbers as they should be the same.
Outside of China look at the age of those dying.
If it was engineered at all it wasn’t a finished product.
760M locked down is somewhat extreme don’t you think? About 10% of total global population. Observe what they do not just the figures they release.
Why is it hard for you to believe that it is totally natural? It is very similar (>96%) to other coronaviruses found in bats, and 99% similar to one found in pangolins. There are a lot of viruses in a lot of animals, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of knowing all of them. Practically every year some virus makes the jump to humans, and some are worse than others. The only thing different now is that we can actually identify them.
COVID-19 does not take only the old, infirm and the very young, but it does take them in larger numbers, which is what almost all natural viruses do. Why do healthy, young adults skip the flu shot? Because they are healthy and young, and not concerned about the flu. Why do elderly people, and infirm people take it in much larger percentages? Because they have reason to worry that they need it.
Its hard to believe when the supposed source is close to potential P4 lab source, the numbers don’t give confidence in their validity and it’s from within totalitarian state. When investigating coincidence is hard to swallow – ask a real life police detective.
Radio France Internationale – translate – possible link to military – link to rfi.fr
Just happens to be the first (2017) P4 level lab right by the market – link to alwihdainfo.com
Perhaps it’s all just coincidence or is it slack controls at the lab?
And if it is bioweapon/nerve-agent what different response do you think there should be?
If it were such a thing, would the “truth set you free”?
Should we unilaterally retaliate against China? What do you propose we do with that information if it exists beyond the fevered imagination of the zero-hedge conspirators?
Will you feel better or worse about falling ill or dying from a bio-weapon than a naturally mutated/generated virus? Please explain in a couple hundred words or less.
People get ill and die from a large variety of natural and human-caused reasons every day. There were no guarantees when you were born that you would be protected from the randomness of nature or the stupidity of humanity. Ask the dinosaurs. Ask the ghosts of the indigenous people who had a 95% death rate upon the Spanish landing in the Americas.
Mish, Mish, Mish…. come, come now this stuff isn’t real. It’s all just fringe fear mongering sites searching for click-bait revenue…. 😉
Even a delay of 2% of supplies will cause economies o fall into recession. Financial markets are about to make a move ahead of economic outcomes.