The relentless march to more Fed cuts and record low bond yields continues its merry way.

Yields are down again today.

Line in the Sand

I seem to recall a "line in the sand".

Where was it? Wait, I remember.

Image placeholder title

Flashback May 28, 2018

Please consider Hello Treasury Bears: About That 3.0% Treasury Yield Line in the Sand

Image placeholder title

My Comment at the Time

Note to Bill Gross, MarketWatch, the Edelson Institute, the Financial Times, Jeffrey Gundlach, Heritage Capital, and numerous other forecasters not caught up in that precise search: The is no such thing such as a line in the sand that when breached cannot be crossed back.

Technical lines in the sand are one thing and fundamentals another. This is not like nuclear war which cannot be reversed.

The same people have been calling for the the end of the bond bull market for a decade. Perhaps they have it right, but the fundamentals suggest otherwise.

The economy is slowing and the Fed is hiking. The stock market is likely headed for another bust. There is a new worry in Europe. China is slowing.

Yes, we have late stage inflation, but so what?


There is no magic line in the sand. Neither the economy nor the bond market work that way.

Treasury Bears Take Note

Image placeholder title

Pimping the Mid-Cycle Adjustment Thesis

Yesterday, in a speech called "Sea of Change", St Louis Fed President James Bullard pimped the "Mid-Cycle Adjustment" Thesis in which supposedly there may not be any more rate cuts this year.

The Bond market vehemently as do I.

Trump's Reckless Tariffs Worsened the Global Problems

Yesterday, I noted Trump's Ignores Advisors, Doubles Down on Failed Policies, Kudlow Won't Comment.

A Global Manufacturing Recession Started and Trump's China Tariffs Made Matters Worse.

The situation came to a head when the US Treasury Declares China a Currency Manipulator Under Orders From Trump

Hello Treasury Bears

Let me make it simple: It's the debt, stupid!

The global economy is choking on debt as central banks are determined to have more of it.

Inflation? Forget about it. The bubbles are proof we "had" inflation. The Bond markets says something else is coming up.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

30-Year Bond Yield Just a Hair from Record Low, 2-10 Yield Spread Near Inversion

Bond yields resumed their post-FOMC crash today after a weak two-day respite. Inversions strengthened across the board.

Hello Treasury Bears: About That 3.0% Treasury Yield Line in the Sand

According to numerous treasury bears, yields would soar out of control once the 3.0% threshold broke. Well?

30-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yields Approach Record Lows

Curve Watchers Anonymous notes treasury yields on the 10-year notes and 30-year long bond are within spitting distance of all-time low yields.

New Record Low Yields on 10- and 30-Year Bonds: Double Cut?

Treasury yields continued a massive plunge today with new record lows. I sense a double rate cut by the Fed on March 18.

Record Low 30-Year Bond Yield and Record High on Gold Coming Up

Once again, the yield on the 30-year long bond is below 2.0%. I expect a record low yield shortly. Gold will benefit.

I Expect New Record Low Long Bond Yield

Every attempt of the 30-Year long bond to break out of a decades-long downtrend fails. At the end of October, the long bond yield was 2.96%. Six days into November, it's back at 2.80%. Meanwhile, short-term rates continue to rise. We are a recession away from a new record low yield on the long bond.

Treasury Yields Surge: Crowded Bet a Winner for Now

Treasury yields are up across the board, with the 30-year bond approaching a breakout level.

10-Year Treasury Short Squeeze Fuel Hits Another Record High

The commitment of traders report shows treasury bears are record short 10-yr treasury futures. They will cover.

Entire Yield Curve Inverts, 30-Year Long Bond Yield Dives to Record Low

The stock markets are getting clobbered and bonds are on fire as recession fears escalate.