Individual houses are basically at the mercy of the spot-market for lumber and other products.
Longer term multi-unit projects have firm price comittments from suppliers.
And then there is the lack of drywall mud, the lack of sand for window production, the higher cost of any metal product, sold-out items and on and on….
So single-family houses face perhaps an extra $50K in price accompanied by endless sorts of excuses for non-progress on the projects.
With hurricane season fast approaching I’m wondering what things are going to look like if / when a big storm or 2 hits the USA.
All those places you see boarded up with 4×8 plywood are looking at 4-5x the cost if they can even find it. Then in the aftermath when insurance has to pay for the damage the costs are going to be insanely high and the time to repair may be years instead of months and many homes may be ruined outright due to mold.
Plus of course insurance fraud will be at an all time high as many will try to get new roof etc via insurance since paying for one is 3-5x the cost it was a year ago.
dbannist
2 years ago
I view these numbers as a result of many things, not just one. 1. People are afraid to start a family at the moment, reducing new home demand. 2. Lumber is insanely expensive. Nobody believes it will remain there long, except a few hyper-inflation nutcases. Therefore anyone looking to start a home is going to postpone it a few months if they can. This is, in my opinion, the most influential factor on present housing start numbers. 3. People are crunching the numbers on their existing home. It’s insanely cheap to refinance your home, and because of the insanely high new home prices, people are staying put and refinancing\remodeling what they have.
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1. People are afraid to start a family at the moment, reducing new home demand.
2. Lumber is insanely expensive. Nobody believes it will remain there long, except a few hyper-inflation nutcases. Therefore anyone looking to start a home is going to postpone it a few months if they can. This is, in my opinion, the most influential factor on present housing start numbers.
3. People are crunching the numbers on their existing home. It’s insanely cheap to refinance your home, and because of the insanely high new home prices, people are staying put and refinancing\remodeling what they have.