How Can Anyone Believe the Fed's Fantasyland Economic Projections?
Dot Plot
The Dot Plot is a summary of where the FOMC members see future interest rates.
It's unanimous there will be no hikes this year. And by a 14-4 supermajority there will not be hikes in 2022.
In 2023, the expectations are 11-7. Two brave souls actually think the Fed will hike 4 times in 2023. [Note: a reader commented that foolish is a better word than brave. I agree.]
Longer Run Silliness
The longer run is a real hoot. A majority think rates will be 2.5% to 3.0%.
US National Debt is over $28 trillion. Click here to see a continually updated Debt Clock as in every second.
Three Percent Interest On $28 Trillion
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Three percent of $28 trillion is $840,000,000,000. That's $840 billion annually.
Some debt will be long-term financed lower, but $28 trillion isn't constant.
And what about future recessions?
These projections are nothing more than economic silliness.
Three Related Articles
- Fed Commits to "Full Range of Tools" Seeks Inflation Above 2% "For Some Time"
- Inflation is Poised to Soar, 3% by June is "Almost Certain"
- Hello Jerome Powell We Have Questions
Repeated Error
Finally, please note Fed hubris. The Fed is Making the Same Inflation Mistake once again.
Mish