Dot Plot 

The Dot Plot is a summary of where the FOMC members see future interest rates. 

It's unanimous there will be no hikes this year. And by a 14-4 supermajority there will not be hikes in 2022.

In 2023, the expectations are 11-7. Two brave souls actually think the Fed will hike 4 times in 2023. [Note: a reader commented that foolish is a better word than brave. I agree.]

Longer Run Silliness

The longer run is a real hoot. A majority think rates will be 2.5% to 3.0%.

US National Debt is over $28 trillion. Click here to see a continually updated Debt Clock as in every second. 

Three Percent Interest On $28 Trillion

Three percent of $28 trillion is $840,000,000,000. That's $840 billion annually. 

Some debt will be long-term financed lower, but $28 trillion isn't constant.

And what about future recessions? 

These projections are nothing more than economic silliness. 

Three Related Articles

  1. Fed Commits to "Full Range of Tools" Seeks Inflation Above 2% "For Some Time"
  2. Inflation is Poised to Soar, 3% by June is "Almost Certain"
  3. Hello Jerome Powell We Have Questions

Repeated Error

Finally, please note Fed hubris. The Fed is Making the Same Inflation Mistake once again.

Mish

Dot Plot Fantasyland Projections

The Economic projections made at today's FOMC meeting are straight from Fantasyland

Dot Plot Fantasyland Flashback vs Current Rate Cut Expectations

In December, Powell said the Fed was on "autopilot". Let's compare those dot plots with current Fed Fund Futures.

Mortgage Rates Move Higher on Fed Dot Plot Projections

How many hikes can the Fed get in this year? The Fed estimate is two more. Mortgage rates rose on the news.

Fed Hikes Quarter Point, Raises Economic Forecast

As expected, the Fed hiked a quarter of a point. Growth projections are up from December.

Powell Is Concerned About Dots

In Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, he displayed a huge concern over the dot plot, an estimation of future rate hikes.

Can the Fed Can Fight Wealth Inequality?

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari hired an Obama economic advisor to help the Fed fight income inequality.