CDC Stats US 2019-2020 Influenza Season

Data Sources

Trump Flashback March 9

Trump Flashback March 13

All Red Tape has Been Cut!

• March 9 Trump: "At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!"
• March 13 Trump: "Testing will soon happen on a very large scale basis. All Red Tape has been cut, ready to go!"
• November 19 Johns Hopkins: 257,329 deaths and counting
• CDC 2019-2020 Influenza Season Deaths:  21,909
• CDC 2019-2020 Influenza Season Cases: 38,194,505

Observed Covid Fatality Rate Johns Hopkins

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Fatality Rate Flu vs Covid - My Calculations

• Flu: 22,000 / 38,000,000 * 100 = 0.058%
• Covid: 257,329 / 12,000,000 * 100 = 2.144%

The death rate from Covid is 37 times greater than the flu.

Think about that while making the claim "Covid is no worse than the flu."

Challenge on CFR vs IFR

See Estimating Mortality From COVID-19 for discussion.

There are two measures used to assess the proportion of infected individuals with fatal outcomes. The first is infection fatality ratio (IFR), which estimates this proportion of deaths among all infected individuals. The second is case fatality ratio (CFR), which estimates this proportion of deaths among identified confirmed cases.

To measure IFR accurately, a complete picture of the number of infections of, and deaths caused by, the disease must be known. Consequently, at this early stage of the pandemic, most estimates of fatality ratios have been based on cases detected through surveillance and calculated using crude methods, giving rise to widely variable estimates of CFR by country – from less than 0.1% to over 25%.

Countries have varying approaches to COVID-19 case definitions. Consequently, the numerator and the denominator of any formula used to calculate fatality rate will vary according to how they are defined.

OK, the bottom line is still 22,000 dead vs 257,329.

Here is a proposed factor to consider.

Mish