The Trump administration coronavirus team doctors, Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, estimate there would be 1.6 million to 2.2 million deaths if no preventative measures were taken.

On that advice, Trump extended his recommended shutdown until April 30. This lowered the estimates of Fauci and Birx to 80,000 to 200,000 deaths.

For discussion and comments from Trump and the doctors, please see Trump Worried About 2.2 Million Deaths, Extends Shutdown Through April

My chart above projects the current slopes until April 12 then flatten.

Everyone is Guessing

It's important to note these are not my "predictions".

Rather, it is my projection of what would happen IF the current trends hold.

I made such an estimation on March 22 and was blasted for it.

Covid Tracking Project

On March 22, I started a series of charts based on data from the Covid Tracking Project.

On that date I received an email accusing me of hyping the data because "It is not presently feasible to get to 100,000 cases in the US by March 26th."

The email also stated "These publications do more to incite hysteria and grab clicks than they provide any basis for decision-making."

Here is my March 22 post: Covid Tracking Project: How Long to 1 Million US Cases?

My trendline at the time suggested we might hit 100,000 cases on March 26.

We topped 100,000 on March 27. I was one day late. Apologies offered.


The amusing thing about my initial post on this data series is my specific statement about trends.

"Those are not my projections, those are observations of what would happen if the current trends last that long at the same pace."

What If?

Assuming a crest at the same rate of progression, US deaths will hit 10,000 deaths on April 6 and something in the neighborhood of 50,000 near Easter.

I suspect that is on the high end. But no one knows, especially me.

I also suspect the 80,000 to 200,000 projection by Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx is purposely on the high side, just to be safe.

If so, the total best guess would be in the range of 100,000 to 140,000 or so.

However, deaths will not drop to zero on the crest or in the next month. Moreover, the threat might very well return in the Fall.

Question of the Day

  • Now that Trump finally believes this is worse than the Flu, will his followers believe it?
  • Bonus question: Will Trump and his followers pretend they believed this all along?


  1. Retail Grinds to a Halt as 47,000 Stores Close
  2. Unemployment Claims Spike to 3.28 Million, New Record High
  3. Coronavirus Trend: One in 10 of Those Hospitalized Die

Nothing Working

Also, please consider Nothing is Working Now: What's Next for America?

Other than those kinds of things, It's No Worse Than the Flu™ .

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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