BookMaker lets you Bet on Political Events. The over-under line for the number of lies tonight is 3.5.

A negative money line represents the amount that you would have to bet to win $100 if you were correct. For example, a -250 money line means you would win $100 if you bet $250 and won the bet.

Thus, betters expect Trump is a big favorite to tell at least 4 lies in his special address to the nation tonight.

Betters overwhelmingly do not believe Trump will declare a national emergency.


Notice that I said "betters" not bookies. The bookies don't care. They take a huge spread and adjust the odds so that they make money regardless of the outcome.

Notice the shutdown options. You have to bet $115 to win $100 no matter which side you bet.

For that bet, the house takes $15 dollars (15%) of every bet made.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

New UK Standard: Prosecute Politicians for Telling Lies!

Boris Johnson has been summoned over lies he allegedly made during the Brexit Referendum campaign.

Bookies Lose Big as Betters Go 9-1 That Trump Tells at Least 4 Lies in Wall Talk

President Trump’s loose grip on the truth just cost one gambling site over a million dollars.

SOTU Address: Trump Delivered His Speech Very Well, But Too Little, Too Late

I watched Trump's entire address. I thought he delivered his message very well. But it will not persuade any Democrats.

Tax Bill Vote How Many Are Against?

Senator Collins of Maine is wavering on the tax vote. It takes three to kill it. Can they be found?

Farage Tells Huge Pack of Lies About Johnson's Brexit Deal

A debate rages over whether Johnson's deal with the EU actually delivers Brexit.

Kavanaugh vs the Dilbert Lie Test

Is Ford telling the truth? Kavanaugh? Both (as they recall)? Let's compare what we know to Scott Adams' lie test.

Dear President Trump: Stop the Damn Trade Lies

Today, Trump told his biggest lie yet about trade. I am sick of this nonsense.

Nonstop Trade Lies: Markets Not Exactly Pleased With Trump's Tariff Man Act

The markets have taken back Friday's lie from Mnuchin that trade talks were going well. The lies from Trump continue.

Oil Pricing: How Many Blends Are There?

When people refer to the price of oil, they typically mean either WTI (US West Texas Intermediate) or Brent Crude from the North Sea. However, the number of blends goes far beyond the typically quoted benchmarks.