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BookMaker lets you Bet on Political Events. The over-under line for the number of lies tonight is 3.5.

A negative money line represents the amount that you would have to bet to win $100 if you were correct. For example, a -250 money line means you would win $100 if you bet $250 and won the bet.

Thus, betters expect Trump is a big favorite to tell at least 4 lies in his special address to the nation tonight.

Betters overwhelmingly do not believe Trump will declare a national emergency.

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Notice that I said "betters" not bookies. The bookies don't care. They take a huge spread and adjust the odds so that they make money regardless of the outcome.

Notice the shutdown options. You have to bet $115 to win $100 no matter which side you bet.

For that bet, the house takes $15 dollars (15%) of every bet made.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock