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How Many People in NYC Are At Risk of Losing Their Job Over the Mayor's Vaccine Mandate?

I crunch the numbers several ways and conclude between 150,000 and 450,000 people will lose their job over Mayor Bill de Blasio's vaccination requirement for all NYC workers.
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Welcome Please Be Ready

Over the Top Tweet

Here's a Tweet that caught my eye as a wild exaggeration.  

According to Joe Borelli, NYC Council Minority Leader, 45% of blacks, 40% of whites, and 30% of Hispanics will be ineligible and legally barred from working in New York City in 20 days.

Borelli is talking about Mayor Bill de Blasio ‘first in the nation’ vaccination mandate for all workers in New York City starting December 27.

Fact Check 

Let's compute realistic numbers based on vaccination data and the latest census demographic data.

Percent of Residents Vaccinated

Percent of Residentc NYC Vaccinated

NYC Vaccination Data shows that at most, 18.3% of New Yorker residents are theoretically impacted, but not all of them work.

New York City Demographics 

New York City's 5 Buroughs

As of the 2020 Census, the population of New York City was 8,804,190.

But how many of them are working age? The above link did not have an age breakdown for 2020 so let's use the 2000 census data as a very good approximation.

New York City Population By Age 

NYC Population by Age

Those under 18 and those over 65 are 36% of the population. Those 18-65 are 64% of the eligible population. 

64% of 8,804,190 is 5,634,816. That's on the high side in practice. 

New York City Employees

All Employees NYC

The BLS has an actual count of All Employees: Total Nonfarm in New York City

As of October 2021, the number of NYC employees is 4,226,300. 

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That is less than half of the population of the city. Factoring in the vaccination rate, about 9% of the entire city is at risk of losing their jobs.

Thus Borelli is wildly off on his percentages.

I am not at all defending mayor de Blasio. Indeed, I heavily blasted him in New York City Mandates Vaccinations, Please Be Ready With Your Vaccine Card.

I am just in search of more accurate numbers.

Estimated Percent and Numbers

At most, about 9% of the city and 18% of the workers are impacted. The count is less because only 10.8% are not vaccinated at all. That's still a lot of people though. 

Let's crunch some numbers at various compliance rates using 4,226,300 as the current number of employees and 18% as the maximum percentage of unvaccinated. 

  • No Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 4,226,300 = 760,734
  • Assuming 25% Additional  Compliance: 0.18 * 0.75 * 4,226,300 = 570,551
  • Assuming 50% Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 0.50 * 4,226,300 = 380,367
  • Assuming 75% Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 0.25 * 4,226,300 = 190,184
  • Assuming 90% Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 0.10 * 4,226,300 = 76,073

Some number of people will refuse vaccinations. I suspect between 150,000 and 450,000 people will lose their job over the mandate. To pick a number, call it 250,000. 

Percentagewise, 250,000 / 4,226,300 * 100 is 5.9%. And the number could be much higher if I overestimate compliance. 

Is This Even Legal?

As an aside, it's likely the governor could make such a ruling for the state. It is highly questionable a mayor can do the same. 

Even if a mayor could, it is beyond idiotic for a mayor with just a few days left in his term to do so. 

New York City Job Recovery

Finally, look at the job recovery rate in the city. Jobs in NYC are 10% lower now than the pre-pandemic high. Nationally, jobs are about 2.6% lower.

Blame New York tax rates (people leaving) and inane NYC policies for the huge divergence. This mandate sure will not help. 

Eric Adams takes over as Mayor on January 1. He would be wise to kill de Blasio's nonsense as his first official act. 

Thanks for Tuning In!

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