December Rate Hike Odds

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10-Year Treasury Yield vs Fed Funds Rate

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10-Year Treasury Yield Minus Fed Funds Rate

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When Will the Yield Curve Invert?

Assuming the 10-year yields remains at 3.0% or above, the Fed can get in five hikes without inversion.

If the 10-year yield stays at 3.0%, the curve would be perfectly flat. Everything from 3 months to 10 years would be at 3.0%.

Let's call that unlikely, to say the least.

If yields on the long end do not go up, some portion of the curve is likely to invert after four hikes.

If yields on the long end drop, three rate hikes may cause inversion.

Spreads are already the tightest since 2007.

As the Fed hiked rates, the spreads between rates have narrowed. The difference between durations is often under 20 basis points, with a single hike measuring 25 basis points.

10-Year Minus 2-Year

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Less than 50 basis points.

10-Year Minus 5-Year

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Less than 20 basis points.

5-Year Minus 2-Year

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Less than 40 basis points.

30-year Minus 10-Year

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Less than 20 basis points.

Unless the long end of the curve rises, an inversion is coming if the market expectation regarding the number of hikes is accurate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock