The total through October is about $88 billion and rising. What are the odds?
Quartz discusses Potential Tariff Refunds.
The Supreme Court is deciding the fate of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs — and major companies like Costco are getting in line for a possible refund. About $88 billion worth of import taxes collected through the end of October are at stake, per Customs and Border Protection data.
What happens next is still up in the air. The U.S. government, though, has been obligated to pay back private firms before.
One specific example from the late 1990s has caught the attention of trade analysts and major law firms as a blueprint for how a refund process could be structured.
“There’s precedent for it and the data, the systems are in place for it to actually happen pretty smoothly if it was an administration that wanted to do so,” Jacob Jensen, a trade policy analyst at the right-leaning American Action Forum, told Quartz Washington.
Trade experts say that companies subject to Trump’s tariffs are nearing a critical window known as “liquidation,” the 10-month threshold when CBP’s assessment of rates and duty amounts paid becomes final. The first of the tariff barrage hit China in early February, a precursor to April’s more sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Once the liquidation period is up, businesses have six months to challenge the CBP’s calculation if they disagree. At that point, they have to jump through more bureaucratic hoops to get their money back.
For a well-known warehouse club giant like Costco, it appears the risk of staying on the sidelines was too high. And more firms may follow its lead to preserve a legal right to a refund in the coming weeks. Already, Revlon, EssilorLuxottica — maker of the Ray-Ban sunglasses — Kawasaki Motors and BumbleBee Foods are among the companies challenging the administration in court.
The tariff case has lingered in Trump’s mind. On Monday morning, he blasted out a social media post praising tariffs as his favorite tool to level the playing field of global commerce.
“We have a big decision,” Trump said at a White House event later that afternoon. “Hopefully we’re going to get the right decision.” He ended the day by threatening a 5% tariff on Mexico and claimed they were violating a water treaty.
Trump on Truth Social
While the United States has other methods of charging TARIFFS against foreign countries, many of whom have, for YEARS, TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OUR NATION, the current method of Tariffing before the United States Supreme Court is far more DIRECT, LESS CUMBERSOME, and MUCH FASTER, all ingredients necessary for A STRONG AND DECISIVE NATIONAL SECURITY RESULT. SPEED, POWER, AND CERTAINTY ARE, AT ALL TIMES, IMPORTANT FACTORS IN GETTING THE JOB DONE IN A LASTING AND VICTORIOUS MANNER. I have settled 8 Wars in 10 months because of the rights clearly given to the President of the United States. If countries didn’t think these rights existed, they would have said so, LOUD AND CLEAR! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Can anyone name the 8 wars that Trump settled in 10 months?
CATO on Refunds
The CATO Institute comments On “Emergency” Tariff Refunds: There’s an Easy Way and a (Very) Hard Way
The easy way is to simply refund the tariffs collected.
But the hard way is to make every company do it package-by-package. Of course, the hard way would burden the entire trade staff with nonsensical work, so it will be interesting to see what Trump does.
It’s possible Trump loses the case but the Supreme Court lets the Administration keep what’s been collected, but I lean towards refunds due to the Costco lawsuit.
Trump’s Statements on Truth Social
- Financial Disaster: Trump has claimed that an adverse decision could lead to a $3 trillion “unwind” including investments and required return of funds, a number which various sources indicate is far higher than the actual collected tariff revenue of around $89 billion to over $100 billion under the specific authority in question.
- National Security Threat: He described a negative ruling as “the biggest threat in history to United States National Security,” arguing that tariffs have enhanced national security and that ending them would make the U.S. “financially defenseless”.
- Court Under Pressure: Observers note that his posts appear to be an attempt to pressure the Supreme Court to preserve his signature economic policy, particularly after Justices seemed skeptical during oral arguments about his authority to impose sweeping tariffs without explicit congressional approval under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
- “Life or Death” Case: Trump has called the case “one of the most important and consequential decisions ever made by the United States Supreme Court,” stating that if the U.S. wins, it will be the “richest, most secure country” but if it loses, it could be reduced to “almost third world status”.
Does anyone really believe this obvious bullsheet does Trump any good?
Bessent Says Adverse Ruling Has No Impact
On December 5, Fortune reported Treasury Secretary Bessent insists Trump’s tariff agenda is ‘permanent,’ saying the White House can re-create it even with a Supreme Court loss
“We can re-create the exact tariff structure with 301s, with 232s, with the, I think they’re called, 122s,” he said, referring to several sections of various trade acts that could serve as alternatives to the administration’s current justification for its tariffs.
When interviewer and DealBook editor Andrew Ross Sorkin questioned whether these measures could exist permanently, Bessent replied, “Permanently.” He later clarified that tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 would not be permanent.
Tariff Synopsis
A court ruling against tariffs would leave the US “financially defenseless”, reducing the US to “almost third world status”, and have no impact whatsoever.
Obviously, this makes perfect sense in Trumperland where contradictions are preposterous, yet believable.
Costco Sues Trump Administration for Full Refund of Reciprocal Tariffs
On December 3, 2025, I commented Costco Sues Trump Administration for Full Refund of Reciprocal Tariffs
I commend Costco for standing up to Trump’s unconstitutional order.
I expect a 6-3 ruling against Trump that in practice ought to be unanimous.
For discussion, please see What Are the Odds the Supreme Court Rules Against Trump on Tariffs?
I think there is a roughly 75 percent chance Trump loses. See above link for detailed analysis by judge.
As for refunds, assuming Trump loses, that’s a closer call. Say 50-60%.
Meanwhile, please note Trump Doubles Down on Idiotic Idea of Using Tariffs to Replace Income Tax
Once again, Trump says tariffs can replace the income tax.
To replace income tax with tariffs, Trump would have to charge (and collect) $2.4 trillion in tariffs on $3.27 on imports.
That implies a tariff rate of 73.4 percent on all imports, without a decline in imports.
No one in their right mind believes these idiotic theories.
Citizens should bring class action lawsuits against all the corporations that charged us extra because of the tariffs.
Not possible
How do you prove the amount of a price hike specifically due to tariffs?
You can’t
Citizens who paid extra because of the tariff markups should be refunded by the corporations.
Trump’s erratic, on-off-on again, inconsistent tariff “policy” is the most incompetent and foolish economic policy this nation has ever had. It is truly an embarrassment.
The real question is who will receive the refunds.
Neither you , nor I
Waaaaiit a second now…….All the experts here said tariffs are bad.
But now you want some?
Surely you are joking. I doubt the 2 up voters are
Trump can raise the funds by selling his branded condoms.
Perhaps gold spray painted toilet paper?
Paid for by Comcast?
ever been to hermitage in leningrad. the gold. or the fedny basement. holy fuck. trump’s all just spray paint as you made me LOL. the kuwait embassy had solid gold bathroom fixtures when i visited. my pal had to appraise the building in nyc. he said he needed a geologist. over his paygrade.
The money (all of it) should be refunded only to small and medium sized businesses that had to fold up shop or are on the brink. Same for middle class taxpayers. Trump would be more inclined to give it all the his billionaire donor friends. You know-the trickle down effect rational. Screw Big Business and the billionaire class.
While I agree with the general sentiment, the reason that imported things (especially tech) are more expensive in Europe than the US, is also tariffs, plus some strange import fees, and sales and “consumption” taxes. If everyone starts asking for their money back from what they consider unfair surcharges, we’ll never find the end of it.
As usual trump screws up everything. What? Oh it was Biden’s fault.
The refunds, if they happen, will definitely be distributed in Trump coins.
For all of Trump’s shortcomings, and he has many, the significant deterioration in US-Russian relations took place during the Obama and Biden administrations when American neo-cons exercised their peak influence in recent years. How much has the Ukraine-Russia war cost the US in military hardware, as well as cash payments to prop up the Ukrainian government? Hundreds of billions of dollars? How much would it cost the US to extend Obama care subsidies for an additional three years?
Trump is a fool if he thinks his tariffs have not raised the cost of living for American consumers.
Trump foolery has been repeatedly confirmed.
Who was president between Obama and Biden? Trump!
Psychopaths never admit fault, its always someone else’s fault…
on your life you could not pass a blind test on who was in whitehouse or congress for the past 50 years. nobody could. genocide joe increased the tariffs on china from pedotus trump’s first term. obama droned and killed thousands of innocent humans. trump is the most flagrant grifter no doubt so perhaps the future test might be obvious. but how did the bush and clinton and obama crime families and their accolytes all get so wealthy during and after their imperial warmongering regimes. don’t forget old sport. democracy works. i’ve liked your stock recommendations. i’m long metals and miners. look at weed stocks including the r/e marijuana companies. if pedotus reschedules here it will be potentially like canada a decade ago. those stocks up north were 10x returns in 3 or so years. ciao
Come on B, you know you get downvoted when you call out the hypocritical democrats.
Apparently they think they are above the fray as if democrats have not fucked this country over during the Obama & Biden Administrations.
Ask any Native North American, or African kidnapped into slavery, or loyal American of Japanese descent the USA has always been and will probably be fucked up forever.
Israel v. HAMAS
Egypt v. Ethiopia
Israel v. Iran
Kosovo v. Serbia
Congo v. Rwanda
Cambodia v. Thailand
Pakistan v. India
Armenia v. Azerbaijan
There fixed it.
If somone would toss Zelensky you could add Bidens war:
Ukraine v. Russia
correction. that was obama and mccain and CIA meddling with peoples lives in 2014. of course genocide joe was for sure gonna make bank off it.
Trump is not refunding anything. that much is for certain.
you did NOT receive your DOGE check, yet? i spent mine on weed and booze
I spent most of mine on drugs, booze and women, the rest I just wasted.
Tin pot dictator’s will only make things worse for the subjects can you get that to your thick skull….
Can anyone name the 8 wars that Trump settled in 10 months?
Not even Trump can name them, that requires actual magic
He’d probably cite trade wars as being some that he settled with treaties.
He’d also probably claim he settled Palestine at least twice – LOL
$0.
Even if the court strikes down Trump’s tariffs, they won’t require refunds – under the legal principle of “that’s water under the bridge”. Costco can say they paid X in tariffs, but if they passed it on to consumers, then Costco’s loss was lessened. And the consumers’ loss can’t be quantified since price increases might have been only partially attributable to the tariffs. You can’t unscramble that egg. No refunds will be required.
Good question Mish but I’m exhausted at all this Trump stuff. Can we take a break this Friday and answer a more serious question:
If Voldermort cast the Avada Kedavra (killing curse) on Superman, would it work or would it bounce off Superman? (serious responses only!)
Better question: In the final scenes of “The Cincinnati Kid” did Lady Fingers, while dealing, cheat for her old lover “The Man”. In five card stud the kid gets dealt a full house while the Man gets a royal flush. The odds in an honest game 1 in 335,532,480 hands.
No matter it was a great story and a fantastic movie with lots of outstanding actors.
pedotus trump ended the great war on free trade. and also he ended the recent unpleasantness when federal troops went to war against IL and CA and NY and CO. he’s the greatest president in our entire crumbling evil world wide warmongering imperial history. hat tip to the morons who keep voting D and R for delivering this great empire. long live pax dumbfuckistan. the amerikan people are like a petting zoo of morons. so passive, yet so warlike. it’s stunning.
PEDOTUS? LMFAO………ooook……….
The problem with D&R is the system is so corrupted that know one else can get enough votes to unseat a D&R
But yes, I agree, we somehow have to find a way to get some other party in there
much worse than that. the problem is the vast majority of amerikans are nihilists. what bismark did to the germans, was copied by ruling class of amerika over a century ago. read “ominous parallels” to understand this. so we have the only known democracy in history of mankind that has been waging nonstop world wide warfare since 1898. the people keep voting for this. the only solution is future generations of amerikans to blow the whistle on this. it’s all explained in plato’s “republic”. the most offensive book for vast majority of amerikans.
I’ll have to digest that later.
One thing I think a lot of us would agree on, I could be wrong, but
American’s today under age 50 are :
Lazy
Entitled
Almost refuse to work hard or put in the time & extra work to move up wherever their ladder is
Have little attention span past 2 minutes
Are broke
Are woke
We are full of too many so called liberal but democrat controlled education system people that are too self absorbed to realize they got intentionally dumbed down and brainwashed to think 80% of the crap they learned in college was an actual marketable skill set and now they and mommy and daddy have 100K + of student loans while they make 35K at starbucks
and blame this all on Donald Trump
Too many of them need somebody or some culture to blame for their own faults.
Its China, Its Russia, its a vast right wing conspiracy,its illegal immigrants.
No, it’s them.
if you are caught up in generational bullshit or red v blue pro wrestling bullshit, i’d suggest a rethink. one thing is certain. shit always changes. and all evil empires do crumble. 100 percent track record on that one.
I don’t disagree that we are crumbling here.
I am just so fucking tired of know one calling out the democrats on all the things they have done to set this country back. And you can start with our education system.
Funny how everyone here gets quiet when you call those clowns out.
Its like America was doing well before Trump came around. Ah know we weren’t. In fact they are the reason for Trump 1.0 & 2.0 but are just to arrogant to admit it
I hire quite a few people and find excellent young workers that are well educated and articulate. It pays to have a good reputation as a person and employer. It also pays to provide great wages and stimulating work environments.
remember what ralph nader famously said to some r/e and hedge fund douche bags at his princeton alumnae party WHEN he said he had something they did not have. Vogel of vanguard eyewitnessed it and wrote a whole book about the one word. it’s a word i understood as a teen ager growing up in amerika, the rich empire. ENOUGH. hat tip to my parents ww2 vet and great depression alumnae.
God bless you Frosty. But you dam well know you are in the minority on that one
I have 50 business clients in NY that say otherwise.
Very possible they are not providing what you are but I hear that up & down the East Coast
I applaud you. We need more business owners like you.
America hired a man with a sixth grade understanding of the world.
You deserve every minute of him.
He’s as bad as the leaders of Western Europe, although he’s less unpopular with the people.
Give him time.
He lost in 2020 for a reason.
People get tired of the BS.
His approval rating is now hovering around the lowest of his 1st term, soon after his followers were using the halls of Congress as a latrine.
If 70% of Americans are now morons, why do I or should I care what the hell they think?
We elect the leaders we deserve, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Runoff, ranked choice, etc etc are things we should have tried in the last half century, it’s a coin flip at best whether we try any real election reforms in the NEXT half century. Back to the grind, fellow serfs
Where are you from Edmondo?
Funny I just watched a quick Utube video of an admitted lifetime European liberal and he admits to what he now sees in the UK has alarmed him and changed his perspective on why America has Trump. And how Trump is becoming more popular with the working poor and middle class in not only the UK but all through Europe. It just does not make your & our news.
His words. Migrants out of control in the cities, crime up and all because of migrants, working class Europeans being pushed aside to house the people who are mostly single males . I could go on but you get the point. And this was from a lifetime liberal who has now changed his perspective.
2 sides and even more to every story.
Happy Friday Everyone!
hate fridays. markets close down for 2 and a half days. thank heavens for bitcoin and after hour trading……..
If you are so smart? Why aren’t you rich? /s
😉
i was born rich. hit the lottery being born in usa in 1960. i’m better than rich. i’m wealthy and have wisdom and gave away most of my money. i have plenty for rest of my life and my kids generation. i’ve lived better than any billionaire in usa. not even close.
being smart and cunning or hard working or have shekels or land ain’t worth shit. the true rare thing on earth, is wisdom. been LOL going to college for 47 years while i trade. trading takes about 15 minutes per day. naps when i am tired. better than billions or trillions.