PIIE Charts
The PIIE Charts, originally published on May 18, 2020, track China’s monthly purchases of US goods covered by the phase one deal between the United States and China.
- Through September 2020, China’s year-to-date total imports of covered products from the United States were $65.9 billion, compared with a prorated year-to-date target of $124.9 billion.
- Over the same period, US exports to China of covered products were $59.1 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $109.0 billion.
- Through the first nine months of 2020, China’s purchases of all covered products were thus only at 54 percent (US exports) or 53 percent (Chinese imports) of their year-to-date targets.
What an Amazing Deal
What a deal, and we still have a mountain of tariffs too, hurting all the manufacturers that import goods.
…..The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal. We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election. This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 13, 2019
Tax Foundation Tariff Tracker
The Tax Foundation Tariff Tracker has these interesting stats through September.
- According to the Tax Foundation model, the tariffs imposed so far by the Trump administration would reduce long-run GDP by 0.23 percent ($58.02 billion) and wages by 0.15 percent and eliminate 179,800 full-time equivalent jobs.
- The tariffs are equivalent to one of the largest tax increases in decades (the 17th largest tax increase as a share of GDP since 1940).
- The administration’s outstanding threats to impose additional tariffs would, if acted upon, further reduce GDP by 0.24 percent, wages by 0.17 percent, and employment by [another] 184,200 full-time equivalent jobs.
Trade Wars Good and Easy to Win
When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 2, 2018
Balance the Budget
Shortly before his inauguration, Trump told Sean Hannity on Fox News that he would “balance the budget very quickly … over a five-year period. And I don’t know, maybe I could even surprise you.”
Also recall Trump’s claim of using tariffs to pay down the national debt.
..Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 Trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration, while at the same time reducing taxes for our people. At minimum, we will make much better Trade Deals for our country!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 5, 2018
“..Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 Trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration, while at the same time reducing taxes for our people. At minimum, we will make much better Trade Deals for our country!“
Trump is totally clueless about trade and deficits.
Trump’s Failure
Trump tried to balance the trade deficit with tariffs. It was a fool’s mission as explained in Balance of Trade vs Gold Window
Also consider Trump’s Unwinnable Trade War: Gold Explains Why
Will Biden Be Better?
For discussion, please see How Will Biden Differ From Trump on Trade and China Policy?
Mish
I think that for china or the united states win in this economic race they should start using cryptocurrency and sites like http://www.mintme.com in an official way because I believe is the future monetary system.
FYI…..of all Biden’s picks, the China trade negotiator is of the greatest interest to me now. I’m just trying to get up to speed on what’s going one with that.
This really shouldn’t be a big surprise as this was predicted long ago when the deal was made.
Trump and his sycophants don’t talk much about the $27 trillion in debt these days…
$27 trillion is mainly caused by military spending. Deep state will kill anyone who want to cut all the useless military spending, by 50%.
I’d prefer to see Biden going free-market, embrace TPP etc but I don’t see that happening. The country has become protectionist
Trump pushed managed trade and tarrifs, two things I abhor. He had one legitimate issue , the intellectual property theft which he never solved. Trump’s China policy was a disaster. There was only one goal, catering to a domestic political audence
Morons can’t grasp the idea of intellectual property.
IP is just about impossible to protect. You work at a company and then move to another and the IP travels in your head. The US took advantage of that to obtain IP from the UK when the UK was the top dog.
patents and trademarks
Sure but those things take time to litigate and by then you lost a big chunk of the market. To give you an example: Cisco took huawei to court because huawei copy Ciscos’ source code (IOS). After several years the court agreed and huawei was not allowed to sell in N.A. However, they end up dominating the rest of the world while developing their own code. IP is very hard to protect. The advice is once you come up with something unique start with something else that makes it obsolete. It is truly a rat race
I work for Cisco. The main problem is not that Cisco or any other multi-national gets their code copied, but rather that they’ve created an ecosystem where it’s nearly impossible to compete with China on hardware cost, because everything is concentrated close together. If the multi-nationals diversified their JDM chain such that not everything comes from China, it would have been much easier to compete. Now China has a near monopoly on production of many items.
“If the multi-nationals diversified their JDM chain such that not everything comes from China”
CEOs get paid for short term results and from manipulating their stock via buy-backs. There is no incentive to do what you proposed because it will not make them get more money (individually).
America should just cut of US dollar supply to China, and China economy will collapse immediately.
Without billions of US dollars trade surplus, China cannot print trilions of Yuan yearly to subsidise all the R&D to make better high technology to compete against America high technology corporations.
Also China printing trillions of Yuan every year to build the biggest infrastructure in the world. ALL PAID BY AMERICAN CONSUMERS.
American consumers are stupidly helping China to buy the best technology and scientists from around the world, to destroy American empire. This OXYMORON behavior of American Congress is mind boggling.
America high technology should get the high technology supply chain from Taiwan and Thailand and all their problems solved. Taiwan should allow import of cheap labor from China and North Korea to reduce smartphone production cost.
America can survive without China trade. America partner and loyal allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Phillipines should be leveraged to contain China now.
But globalist elite from UK is helping China to be the next super power. Why ? You have to ask and hand it to Kissinger and Chatham House.
Anybody who know the secret discussion going on in Chatham House will have a clue what is going on in global geopolitics play.
ZH AMERICAN PATRIOT
PUTIN THE GREAT PEACEMAKER “Take care of Russia” Yeltsin told Putin.
Yet more knowledge that it was wrong for Americans to put pressure on Trump to reduce tariffs instead of increasing not just certain tariff rates but also adding more trade categories to the tariff list. “Free Trade” is not “Fair Trade”, and WTO allows countries to establish “fair trade”. When dealing with a country that manipulates its currency exchange rate, restricts funds flows, parasitically trashes its environment for trade advantage, etc., applying tariffs is proper to establish fair trade or else a countries values and systems will be exploited and subsumed by the parasite country.
Trade war = reverse GDP hmm. I knew Trump wasn’t economic educated..
YES SIR ! Trump is GUILTY ! We dont know of what exactly but we should sue his ass off, bankrupt him, DESTROY him ! …After all, he DID fuck Stormy Daniels, didn t he ? YES, The Establishment should set an example for once and for all so that future, would be potentates never get a chance again !
You’re losing it. Deep breaths….
The Establishment, its CNN and many others, won t be at peace till they ‘got’ him…nailed….Are they losing it too ?
Will Biden be better?
Not sure, but I expect him to turn down the heat on the tariff stove…..I think the PRC was always playing the long game, trying to wait Trump out and renegotiate after he was off the stage.
It all hinges on who replaces Robert Lighthizer….if anybody…..I assume Biden will his nudge into retirement……but he is the US/China guy. He knows the Chinese, knows trade, and has done more to shape the US policies than any other single individual, including Trump.
Absolutely Biden will be better! He is affectionately called “Big Guy” over there and his son, Hunter, is a highly respected and sought after business consultant with lots of PRC connections!
What do they call Lighthizer? He’s been our guy since Ronald Reagan, on China trade, with a few sabbaticals. He’s the one to pay attention to,…or whoever his replacement happens to be….not Biden.
It’s not how much goods are imported and exported but which goods are imported and exported. You know that but you needed to fill your quota of anti-Trump posts for the day.
Always ready with an excuse for Dear Leader. You shall certainly be rewarded with his love.
You aren’t even American.
China is in the driving seat, will be top dog, and will go about its merry way whatever happens. Biden or Trump makes no difference in the med-long term.
CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY THE GLOBALIST SUPER ELITE BUILD UP CHINA TO BE VERY POWER ECONOMIC POWER TO CHALLENGE USA ?
One of the great mysteries of that China growth is the fact that China was allowed to become the “workshop of the world” after 2001, first in lower-skill industries such as textiles or toys, later in pharmaceuticals and most recently in electronics assembly and production.
The mystery clears up when we look at the idea that the PTB (the power to be) and their financial houses, using China, want to weaken strong industrial powers, especially the United States, to push their global agenda.
Brzezinski often wrote that the nation state was to be eliminated, as did his patron, David Rockefeller.
By allowing China to become a rival to Washington in economy and increasingly in technology, they created the means to destroy the superpower hegemony of the US.
by F. William Engdahl
Is AIG the main insurer for the products/completed operations limits on Three Gorges Dam/Yangtze River risk? Asking for a friend.
Would you reinsure them, Mish?
No
I fully expect my U.S. company to lose market share again once Biden is in office and I will most likely lose my job too. We just cannot compete to the all the unfair trade practices of China. Thank Barrack and thanks again Joe:
“President-Elect Joe Biden announced additional nominations to his cabinet on Monday, including a National Security Adviser who has advocated for supporting China’s “rise” in the past.”
Out of curiosity, what market is your company involved in?
Can’t blame China for their global push. Look at the education system they fund students scholarship overseas, once graduated guarantee high paying jobs in China and gov funded education. After a US graduates, just big student debt and no job security.
Sorry about that. Keep in mind that while tariff benefit your company and your employment situation it also cost other companies and other employees. There are winners and losers in every war
China didn’t steal ANY jobs or factories! The US multi=Nationals GAVE THEN AWAY to exploit cheap labor and more profit! You should thank the US CHamber of commerce! Both parties and Wall St complicit. The biggest snow job done on public blaming China! You swallowed that kool-aid!
CHINA IS TO BLAME FOR TAKING AWAY AMERICAN GOOD PAYING RICE BOWLS AND HERE IS THE PROOF :
WHY CHINA IS THE BIGGEST GLOBAL CURRENCY MANIPULATOR ?
China started the trade war against the US in 1994, by weaponising the Yuan with the full approval and support advice from Kissinger.
In 1994, US$1 = 8.9 Yuan
In 1993, US$ 1 = 5.7 Yuan
In 1992, US$ 1 = 5.3 Yuan
In 1990, US$ 1 = 4.8 Yuan ( after Tiananmen Incident )
In 1989, US$ 1 = 3.7 Yuan ( before Tiananmen Incident )
The above shows there is a drastic devaluation from 1990 to 1994, which China weaponised the Yuan to be more exports competitive.
China cannot even compete with the South East Asia countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia in 1993 when US$ 1 = 5.5 Yuan.
After 1994, China become the cheapest labor cost value for money in the world, and caused the Asia Financial crisis 1997-1998.
This Asia Financial crisis destroyed economy of South Korea, Taiwan,Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Before 1994, most of the global supply chain are from south east asia countries, Taiwan and South Korea. After 1994, when the Yuan is drastically devalued, most of the MNC supply chain moved to China, thus destroyed south east asia , Taiwan and South Korea economy.
China claim they have the most advanced technology in the world. Then why does China continue to devalue Yuan to be competitive ?
China is the biggest global currency manipulator which was approved by Kissinger/IMF/World Bank.
China biggest mistake is to peg foolishly the Yuan at such low rate in 1994 USD1=8.9 Yuan. China unintelligent leaders are very desperate to get FDI from American and Japanese MNC, to create jobs and earn enough foreign exchange surplus in US dollars.
Do you think America will buy from China if $1=5.5 Yuan ?
Surely America can buy cheaper from Vietnam, Thailand, Mexico , etc. if $1=5.5 Yuan.
[ yewtaipan@yahoo.com ]
It’s Time to End China’s Most Favored Nation Status
December 1st, 2020
China was granted Most Favored Nation status through presidential proclamation on an annual basis from 1980 – 1998. This was because the Trade Act of 1974 stated that “MFN status may not be conferred on a country with a nonmarket economy if that country maintains restrictive emigration policies” China was, and still is, a nonmarket economy and restricted emigration, but the Act allowed the president to “waive this prohibition on an annual basis if he certifies that granting MFN status would promote freedom of emigration in that country.”
[ yewtaipan@yahoo.com ]
I may have missed some posts so maybe you have already said so but Mish do you think in total we would be worse off now if Clinton had won?
I honestly do not know
Iran policy would certainly be better
Trade policy would be better if for the only reason it could not possibly be worse
I support abortion rights so add that to the mix
But Hillary, other than Iran was at least as much a warmonger. She had the support of McCain. It is possible instead of attempting to promote a war with Iran that she would have with Russia.
Also I would have been sick of here overall progressive agenda.
Two terrible choices for sure but with distinct differences
I can’t imagine that anyone could have done any worse than Trump on the coronavirus response. Just my opinion, but I know there are plenty of people that disagree with me on that.
You guys don’t get it. As it affects you and me there is no real difference. Biden , Trump Clinton we are on a downward spiral caused by debt. The only accountably is at the ballot box and in general we have all down terrible there! There is no return without change to the system.
Is the chance of change better with a 40 year career politician who helped put us in this position? Or someone that has not been in a politician. I would go with latter if we want to change if you are happy with the current system then stick with other.
I did learn that in NATO no one was meeting their contribution budgets. That seem significant when we are going broke… How many more of theses types of situations exist? We would have never know from Clinton or JB. There job is not to help us understand its to tell us what to do because they know best just ask them…lol
Hey, all those smart Americans voted for the guy promising to eliminate the debt in eight years. I guess he would have come on strong in his second term rolls eyes
No, no! Five years!
Since there is no difference between any politicians…please tell us how US debt affects you in the life you live today?
As for NATO, you seem to misunderstand the that NATO was placed in play exactly for the interests of the US and the potential conflict with the USSR plus have troops on the ground in the potential trouble-spots of (friendly??–Germany??) European nations that had led to the deaths of hundreds of thosands of US citizens in war.
It’s not exactly like Europe was or is clamoring for the protection of NATO.
Kudos to China. US is the one nation that never ever honors it’s international agreements and can always be counted on to break it’s word. As Russians say, US is non agreement capable.
The only thing trump is interested in now is crying about getting beat.