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Ida to Wallop New Orleans on Sunday, Worst Possible Path for Energy Production

Ida will land on Sunday, exactly 16 years after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. The projected past is the worst possible for energy production.
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Hurricane Ida 2021-08-28A

Hurricane Ida is now a category 2 storm but is expected to Strengthen to Category 4 at Landfall

Hurricane Ida is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane as it draws closer to the northern Gulf Coast this weekend, where it will bring life-threatening storm surge, dangerous rainfall flooding, potentially catastrophic winds and tornadoes.

Ida is currently centered several hundred miles southeast of New Orleans and is tracking northwest at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 100 mph, making Ida a Category 2 hurricane.

Hurricane Ida 2021-08-28B

Life-Threatening Inundation From Storm Surge

A storm surge warning has been issued from the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. This means life-threatening inundation from storm surge is expected in these areas within 36 hours.

A storm surge watch is also in effect for Mobile Bay. This means dangerous flooding from storm surge is possible within the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Ida Storm Surge 2021-08-28A

Flood Alerts 

Hurricane Ida Flood Alerts 2021-08-28A

Ida Path Tracker 

NBC has an Ida Path Tracker

Hurricane Ida Path Tracker 2021-08-28

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New Orleans Prepares

The WSJ reports New Orleans Prepares as Hurricane Ida Approaches

Forecasts show Ida’s winds potentially reaching 140 miles an hour over the next day and a half as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane could bring storm surges as high as 15 feet above ground along parts of the Louisiana coast and as much as 20 inches of rain in some areas of southeast Louisiana and the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama.

“There’s a lot of water and very few places for it to go,” said Joel Cline, tropical program coordinator for the National Weather Service. “Clearly, people need to prepare.”

Oil Production Disruptions 

  • Ida’s projected path has made it a threat to the vast oil refining and petrochemical complex situated along the U.S. Gulf Coast, though the storm’s more easterly track Friday suggested it would miss the heart of those operations in Texas and along the Texas-Louisiana border.
  • Refineries in Louisiana and Mississippi had started to reduce or halt output, which will lead to some gasoline-delivery delays.
  • Projections have Ida sweeping through the bulk of U.S. offshore oil production, located south and southeast of Louisiana, said Andy Lipow, president of Houston-based consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates. He expects as much as 90% of offshore oil output to close ahead of the storm.
  • “Hurricane Ida is showing up probably in the worst possible location for oil production,” Mr. Lipow said.

Expect higher gas prices and energy outages especially in the impacted regions.

Best wishes, be safe.

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