On July 24, I commented Tariff Backlash Could Cost Republicans the Senate.
My comment then: “The math for Democrats to win the Senate looks extremely daunting. However, I see more than a reasonable shot for them.”
Many people likely thought I was nuts.
RCP No-Tossup Scenario
Flash forward to today.
The “Real Clear Politics” base scenario, ignoring tossups, is that Democrats pick up a Senate seat, making things a 50-50 tie.
I did not record it at the time, but I believe the RCP base scenario in July was that Democrats would lose at least two seats.
National Polls
The national polls are as useless today as the were when Trump beat Hillary. Throw them away. This is about individual races not national polls.
The surge in the strength for Trump likely reflects a surge in belief of the conservative base.
Regardless, the base is meaningless. The independents and swing voters, and individual matchups, not the base, are what matters.
Overall Picture
Daunting Math
The math looks improbable at best. Democrats need 37 safe seats, plus 3 likely seats, plus 4 leans seats, plus 7 of 9 tossup seats.
The problem with that outlook is the RCP math is extremely one-sided. By that I do not mean against either party, but rather in the definition of likely vs lean.
For example, in Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin (D) has an 11 point lead over Leah Vukmir (R), and RCP only rates the race as “leans” Democratic.
Why might RCP do this?
The obvious answer is to do as sportscaster do. Pretend a game is not over when it is, so that viewers do not switch channels.
RCP ought to at lest be reasonable about this and put the race in the “likely” column, but alas, that might cost them a few clicks.
Toss the BS Aside
If one tosses the BS aside, the RCP “No-Tossup” Map looks like this.
What Happened?
That’s easy. Two things:
- Trump’s tariffs are massively backfiring
- Kavanaugh is taking a huge toll on moderates and independents
In regards to point number one, China’s retaliations are hitting the farm belt and rust belt hard.
In regards to point number two, the smear attack on Kavanaugh is also talking a toll.
Race by Race
As stated above, national polls are meaningless. Let’s look at all the alleged RCP “toss-ups” and see where they stand.
In all cases, ignore the RCP “average”. RCP averages things that are hopelessly out of date.
Arizona
My take: Arizona is no longer a tossup.The most recent four polls all put Sinema in the lead. Mentally move Arizona into the “Leans Democrat” category.
Florida
My take: At best (for the Republicans), Florida is a tossup. My rating “Slightly Leans Democratic”
Indiana
My Take: This is an example of silly RCP averaging. I would put far more weight on the most recent polls, but there are only two.
This race is either a “Genuine Tossup” or if you prefer, “Slightly Leans Republican”. Take your pick.
Missouri
My Take: Four consecutive ties resolved in favor of the Republicans. I like to give weight to the most recent polls, especially if there is a trend.
But there is no trend. This race is either a “Genuine Tossup” or if you prefer, “Slightly Leans Republican”. Take your pick.
Montana
My Take: One poll is stale, but all three polls show a small lead for Tester,
This is no longer a tossup. Rather, label it “Slightly Leans Democrat”.
Nevada
My Take: It is far beyond absurd for RCP to average in an April poll.
This is no longer a tossup. Rather, label it “Slightly Leans Democrat”.
North Dakota
My Take: the theater of the absurd is even more in play here. RCP averages in a February poll.
Unfortunately, there is only one poll of relevance, and it is slightly stale. If there were multiple polls in about the same place, I would call it “Leans Republican” Instead, label it “Slightly Leans Republican”.
Tennessee
My Take: Two polls are stale, one in each direction. The two most recent polls are also in opposite directions.
I would call this a “Tossup”. If you place more weight on the most recent poll, label it “Slightly Leans Democrat”.
Texas
My Take: Cruz had been sinking badly. RCP does not seem to have all of the polls.
However, Cruz recovered strongly.
This race is “Leans Republican”.
Synopsis
Democrats clearly have their work cut out for them, but a path to victory is in play, and increasingly so.
No one was discussing this at all when I brought it up in July, now it’s on the radar.
A couple of percentage points could decide the whole thing.
Mentally give the Democrats Arizona, Montana, Nevada, and Florida. They would lose a seat. Add in Missouri or Tennessee, and they hold. Add in Indiana, Missouri and Tennessee, and they take the Senate.
They need 7 of 9 to win, 6 of 9 to tie (both assuming they hold everything else).
The problem children for the Democrats are Texas and North Dakota. The polls in North Dakota are stale, but I do not envision (right now) that state going Democrat.
Yet, it could, if tariffs and/or the Kavanaugh affair bite hard enough enough.
Importantly, the trend and the political setup are very favorable to the Democrats.
Final Comments
Every time I do a post like this I get accused of something.
I have been recently been labeled a “never-Trumper” despite the fact I voted for Trump and would do so again, against Hillary.
In 2000, I called every state but one correctly for Obama, and that was before he even won the nomination. For that write-up, I was labeled an “Obama Lover” but I did not vote for Obama.
Typically, I seem to get judged by my most recent article. Thus I have been accused or being an extreme right-winger as well as an extreme left-wing loonie.
I do not care for either major party.
I voted for Trump despite the fact that I am pro-choice because I believed then that he was the lesser of the two warmongers.
I am staunchly pro-free trade, pro-choice, pro-small-government, and extremely anti-war.
Neither party does a damn thing about government spending. Both parties openly support war and military spending, and neither party really believes in free trade.
As such, I tend to object to the party in power most of the time.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The trend is clear. The Dem’s have been making lower highs since the Great Depression, and the trend will continue because the govt debt bubble (Socialism) is popping, which will force the big govt crowd into the light.
Unfortunately, Trump is a dead cat bounce for confidence. The more the swamp gets drained, the more sordid skeletons will be exposed. Even the big govt believers will begin to question their faith.
Mish isn’t a never-Trumper, he’s never-Trumpish. Tariffs ARE popular. Blue wave is a myth.
Avenatti just screwed all democrats because Avenatti’s find of a college aged woman when Kavanaugh was in high school who claimed she has gone to high school parties while in College and that in those high school parties drugging girls and gang-raping them was commonplace and that trains were being pulled on drugged girls and high school guys like Kavanaugh were waiting in front of a rooms door waiting for their turn to rape the drugged girl and that the Democrat woman was gang-raped at one such party and still kept going to those parties are flat out insane.
Avenatti just destroyed credibility of the Kavanaugh witchhunt by democrats and Avenatti just made sure that every last republican will go vote in the mid-terms and all independents who have any intelligence will vote Republican in mid-terms because the insanity of democrats as exemplified by Avenatti just jumped the shark.
I predict Kavanaugh will be voted 53-47 to Supreme court on Friday with two red state democrats voting for Kavanaugh and all Republicans voting for Kavanaugh.
Avenatti is a shyster and if democrats do not remove shysters like him away from democrats then they are a party without a soul with only lies, hate, lies, hate, lies, hate being the Democrat agenda.
Unfortunately there is no political party that represents people who are socially liberal but fiscally conservative. A lot of people would vote for such a party. The Republicans will do anything the right wing religious fanatics want and they have completely repudiated fiscal conservatism. It’s obvious why 50% of the population doesn’t vote in a presidential year and 75% don’t vote in a midyear. I have to laugh reading Republican enthusiasm is up – they are 20% of the population!
Because it is an oxymoron.
Let in mucho illegals, free health care, free housing, free education, massive government, massive bureaucracy…etc, etc, etc.
But I am a fiscal conservative too!
Huh?
“socially liberal but fiscally conservative.”
LOL
“My base scenario all along was that Republicans would lose the House.”
The president’s party typically loses 15 or more House seats in an off-year election but I am going to stick my neck out and predict a 5-seat gain for Repubs this year – just as the Democrats got in 1998 when Repubs were about to impeach Clinton.
I can’t wait for the dems to raise taxes on all of us.
By the way, I had one mathematical error in there, no corrected. Dems need 7 of 9 to win, not tie as I had it.
Mish might be right. I think the pubs will hold the senate, but we’re 5 weeks away, so things can change.
If the dems win both chambers, will they try to oust Trump? They’ll need 2/3rds of the senate, so some pubs will have to vote against Trump. Many pubs hate Trump, so it’s possible.
Dems need at least three 50/50 races in a row to win the Senate. The odds of getting heads on a coin flip 3 times in a row is 12.5%. So the odds are still massively against the Dems taking the Senate.
It’s not a coin flip. Things heading their way. If they the odds shift on two, the odds shifting on the third is likely.
You can bet Stormy and Omarossa will be strategically doling out bits of collected trump nastiness for maximum effect. Now that the UN is freely laughing at Trump, there’s going to be a lot more of that to come, and a lot more trumpletantrums when his handlers can’t keep him from finding out about it. Not a good time to try and win as a republican.
Source of the polls ? CNN ? CBS ? WaPo ?
State polls are notoriously inaccurate so I would discount your state projections here. Given prevailing political insanity, poll data is going to be volatile until the election day.
FWIW, republican party favorability reaches a 7 year high according to a recent Gallup poll –
In most elections, the largest group of citizens are the non-voters. Pundits obsess about percentage “swings”, ignoring the fact that the number of citizens voting is quite variable. The clearest example was the Presidential elections with Ross Perot — when he ran the second time, votes for him dropped by about 10 million. But those 10 million people did not vote Democrat; they did not vote Republican; they did not vote at all.
Especially in mid-terms, a key issue is who decides to go out and vote. Will the circus Diane Feinstein started over Kavanaugh’s confirmation fire up Democrat voters, or will it fire up Other-Than-Democrats? Time will tell.
Avenatti shot both knees from Democrats with his shyster schemes of finding crazies to swear that there were gang-rapes and rape rooms and drugging of girls to gang-rape them while this College aged crazie went to high school parties while in College when Kavanaugh was in high school and apparently spotted by this Crazie in these high school gang-rape parties.
Avenatti needs to be run out of Democrat party tarred and feathered so he stops his insanity.
Democrats just destroyed their chances in mid-terms…