Today’s trade report will have Trump howling. 
The Advance International Trade report today is sure to have Trump screaming.
Advance International Trade in Goods
- The international trade deficit was $122.1 billion in December, up $18.6 billion from $103.5 billion in November.
- Exports of goods for December were $167.5 billion, $7.8 billion less than November exports.
- Imports of goods for December were $289.6 billion, $10.8 billion more than November imports.
Advance Wholesale Inventories
- Wholesale inventories for December, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $898.0 billion, down 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent) from November 2024, and were down 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2023.
- The October 2024 to November 2024 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of down 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent) to down 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent).
Advance Retail Inventories
- Retail inventories for December, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $823.3 billion, down 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from November 2024, and were up 5.7 percent (±0.7 percent) from December 2023.
- The October 2024 to November 2024 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent) to virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent).
The Rush to Beat Tariffs
The huge surge in imports was no doubt related to a mad rush to beat Trumpian tariffs.
Even still, these are very nasty numbers with a plunge in exports too. And the revisions were negative as well.
No economist came close. The Bloomberg Econoday range estimates was -101.0 Billion (who guessed that?) to -115.1 billion, with the consensus at -105.5 billion.
The actual trade deficit was -122.1 billion, up 18 percent. The Econoday consensus miss was by 15.7 percent.
Trump Announces New Tariffs on Computer Chips and Semiconductors
This morning I noted Trump Announces New Tariffs on Computer Chips and Semiconductors
The irony in Trump’s build here rant rant is Taiwan Semiconductor is building in the US, and Nippon Steel wants to.
Both Biden and Trump said no to Nippon on preposterous grounds of national security. How the hell is a steel plant in the US a security threat?
Everyone with an ounce of common sense who looked at the deal understands it’s union pandering that really puts America last.
For discussion, please see Biden’s Block of Nippon Steel Merger Makes the United States Less Secure
Biden blocked the Nippon purchase of U.S. Steel. Trump would have too. It’s union pandering that makes the US less secure.
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The “surge” of imports is hardly enough to avoid a year’s worth of tax increases.I interpret the data as many people who import trinkets are going to close shop.
Do you think the strong dollar plus the rush to beat tariffs are both at play here?
Yes to both. Importers are scrambling to beat Trump’s tariffs. And Canadian oil companies are sending as much to US refiners and US storage facilities as the pipelines can push through. After many weeks of declining US oil inventories, those inventories jumped last week as a result.
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/canadian-oil-floods-us-trump-tariff-threat
100% tariffs now!!!
President Musk do you approve?
100%? Totally inadequate. 300% is the only way to replace the revenue lost from abolishing income, corporate and capital gains tax.
I defer to your wisdom Mr. President.
I sense sarcasm. You don’t really love me, do you? Your deportation will give me great pleasure.
Well hell; instead of the State Department banning exports of inflatable condoms to Gaza, an apparently used for improvised explosive devices, send stiffer French Ticklers instead to help with exports while providing a colorful product that cannot be inflated but can be washed with plentiful seawater for reuse after a beach frolick by the indigenous natives in need of affordable birth control. It’s a win win.
The ruler of the most populated state and the largest economy in the American continent spanked Canada and Mexico in order for them to behave better in the future.
He’s trying to turn a massive ship via short term measures. It isn’t reasonable to expect quick results out of a problem born decades ago and only built upon since then. Quick-tempered in such matters is no way. But he got his way early and easily in Columbia. The rest won’t be smooth sailing.
I don’t think Canada and Mexico have any problem doing their part if the goal is to continue an America’s alliance. In fact the whole of the America’s might be a nice goal for a trading alliance: Arctic to the tip of South America, Panama canal too. But Trump mustn’t materially damage allies if he wants that goal.
Keeping allies involves keeping your word. It’s antithetical to The Grift.
so you’re telling me that 6 months of tarriffs wont have thousands of manufacturing plants in the us making toys and underwear fully built and staffed instantly? Interesting
We have ordered factories from Temu… shipping will take a few weeks.
To be effectively competitive in foreign markets, requires that we sell lower unit costs and higher quality products. This means concentrating on production, innovation, and product quality. It means giving workers a financial stake in increased productivity (share in profits, etc.).
Ridiculous! America is full of entitled peasants. H1Bs appreciate the magnanimity of a couple handfuls of lentils for a solid 80 hour week. Americans need to be taught a lesson in humility!
Trade deficit? This is why we need the tariffs.
Was going down before Biden. Now not so much.
Trump has tail between legs, rescinds XO on freezing funding after creating chaos. What a hero.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/29/white-house-rescinds-federal-funds-freeze-memo.html
Who doesn’t enjoy a little chaos now and then? Lighten up, Francis.
No Fed cut, strike TWO for Trump.
Scott promised me rate cuts.
I need you gullible, but not that gullible.
That’s all Trump needs to play the ‘we would have had milk and honey if only I’d been allowed to have lower rates and cut payments’
I hope you are planning for no milk and honey (sarc)
Daughter went to whole foods for milk and all shelves were empty….ironic isn’t it. No eggs either.
Yes. All the chickens were killed bc of bird flu a few months ago. Pretty well known. Check back in a year.
Try Trader Joe. $3.49 yesterday.
This is a positive, inexpensive way to combat the obesity epidemic.
Yup. Golden Age is canceled. Prepare for retribution.
I love the Chaos, as it lets us know who has TDR! Once we know that, we also know how to deal with them moving forward. You know, the way they did, so they understand completely…
Sounds like you expect it to end there? This is Trump, and that would be called R1 in the books. Now that’s out of the way, He will go forward with R2 next…
I am waiting for polymarket to post odds on a dem sweep of congress mid-terms and impeachment hearings to start soon after. Two easy bets to make $$$.
That isn’t saying anything. Congress always swaps in midterms no matter who the President is. See 2010. 2018 2022.
But I thought the new golden age would make everyone euphoric? Why change?
MPOx, you know human nature. If the last 4 years were golden Harris should have won easy like you thought. A brutal rejection of your world view. Learn from it.
Lol…what do I care about Harris? I’m here for the profits. But as TexasTim kept asking why I chose dems over repubs, the chaos created yesterday that had the potential to crash money market (now rescinded) was the core reason – it impacts my profits. Market returns have been better under dems that repubs.
Trump’s stupidity will know no bounds which is why I now have to hold puts on my portfolio. Don’t worry, they’ll pay off at some point.
But to be fair to repubs, I pay less taxes under repubs than dems so there’s a bone for you.
Learn from that prayer man.
But you do care. You supported her and were convinced she’d win. So now you say you don’t care to try and make yourself feel better. Its not working obviously.
Oh I am heartbroken…boo hoo….shedding tears all the way to the bank.
Yes. TDS is not fixed by money. So many examples. Dems have become the party of the rich and miserable. You fit right in. 👏
and it bears repeating wealth is much like penis size. The bigger the brag the smaller the assets.
Sorry I’m not gay (not that there’s anything wrong with that) but people that spend time concerned about other people’s manhood tend to be that way. That includes most repubs. Find yourself a good man Ryann.
We’re going to distract from all that with the federal abortion ban… it’ll work next time.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91268914/bill-banning-abortion-introduced-house-missouri-republican
SPY might test the top for more accumulated [XO].