In a Bloomberg interview today, Kaplan cited uncertainties and wants a pause in interest-rate hikes.

"We shouldn't be taking any further action until some of these uncertainties resolve themselves," said Kaplan.

He also stated that he wasn't mulling an interest-rate cut but he is open to slowing down the pace of the shrinking of the central bank's balance sheet.

Uncertainty Nonsense

What a joke. The way these charlatans phrase these things is always in the context that certainty is a "good thing".

What if the uncertainties give way to a 100% proven recession?

The Bernanke- and Yellen-Fed both delayed hikes too long hoping for "certainty". They did not want to kill a recovery.

What they got is a 100% certified bubble that is now imploding.That's at least as certain as the certainty they seek.

Fed a "Beacon of Certainty"

What a hoot. Back in November, a JP Morgan strategist Samantha Azzarello called the Fed a "beacon of certainty" compared to markets and politics.

Gold Needs Certainty

The Srap Metal Register proclaims Gold needs certainty from fed to accelerate higher.

Apple Uncertainty

Also note that Apple Cites "Mounting Uncertainty"

Since apple wants certainty, I can help.

Apple Certainty

  1. Apple sells phones, a commodity.
  2. The competition sells phones that are arguably as good, for less money.
  3. At some point, consumers will no longer pay for a name.
  4. At some point, it is inevitable consumers will decide new features and upgrades are not worth the price. The same thing happened with computers.

It is uncertain when points 3 and 4 will happen, but it looks like it has started.

Looking for certainty?

I can help. It is 100% certain that portions of the yield curve are inverted.

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The yield curve is flashing recession warnings. That is certain.

I believe recession hits in 2019. But that's uncertain.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

One Certainty in a World of Uncertainty

FRED, the St. Louis Fed data repository, has added 286 new indicators of uncertainty.

In Search of the Effective Lower Bound

The Fed is no longer talking about zero-bound but effective lower bound. What's the difference? Where is it?

In Search of the Allegedly Steepening Yield Curve

There has been a lot of commentaries recently about the steepening yield curve. Let's investigate with pictures.

Apple Cites "Mounting Uncertainty": APPL Down 7% AH, Nasdaq Futures Down 2.3%

Apple Blames "Mounting Uncertainty" in Rare Guidance Cut. Futures hammered.

Fed Uncertainty Principle

Most think the Fed follows market expectations. Count me in that group as well.

Nonsensical Global Worries Over Subdued Inflation: Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda

Central bank presidents at the Fed, the ECB, and Bank of Japan are all concerned over low inflation. The Fed wants to hike anyway, but the Bank of Japan will keep pursuing aggressive monetary easing. Meanwhile, asset prices are in the biggest ever bubble.

Dallas Fed President Sees "No Movement" in the Fed Funds Rate

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan made some interesting comments today on interest rates, repos, and the coronavirus.

In Search of a Fix (When None is Possible): What Happens?

As I pointed out long ago, there is no possible fix to the Dallas pension mess except massive haircuts to pension payouts.

For All the Bleeping Uncertainty, Why is the Stock Market at All Time High?

Every day of the year another economist yaps about uncertainty.There’s uncertainty over the US election, over Brexit, over interest rates, over the strength of the US economy, and over global trade.