Lib Dem Leapfrog

Caution Advised

This is just one poll.

It is in contrast to another recent poll.

Clear Position

Caution aside, the poll result is not exactly surprising.

Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson promises a clear position: Overturn Article 50 and stay in the EU.

In contrast, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn promises a referendum.

Corbyn proposes a referendum in which voters decide to remain or let him negotiate a customs union.

Calculated Moves

This all seems like political madness, but it is a calculated move by both Corbyn and Swinson.

  1. Swinson wants an election before there is a result. If she can achieve that, Labour will get crushed by its wishy washy policy. But if there is a result before the election the platform of Remain is totally useless.
  2. On the other hand, Corbyn wants a result, any result, before there is an election.
  3. The problem for both Corbyn and Swinson is they do not want an election to be to the advantage of Boris Johnson.

Bad Deal Increasingly Likely

Corbyn may very well support a deal, any deal, just to prevent an election blowout.

I suspect he would even opt for Theresa May's inept deal, flat out as is.


Magic Increasingly Likely

A magic solution, despite all the protestations from the EU regarding the backstop seems increasingly likely.

It would solve a problem for Johnson (who by the way would be right about getting a deal), and it would give Labour a one-on-one go at Johnson.


Because any solution, no matter what, takes out both the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats.

Flies in the Ointment

One problem with what I just proposed is the EU is increasingly belligerent. And it's obvious to the UK.

Corbyn will of course grant a "free vote". He can hardly be for a people's choice and then not grant MPs the right to vote as they please. Labour might not go along.

Theresa May's deal has been defeated three times already.

But if MPs are hell bent on stopping "No Deal" to the point of getting any deal, no matter bad, then a bad deal will be the result.


  1. Labour wants to sidetrack the Liberal Democrats and vice versa.
  2. Corbyn does not really want a referendum. He would get killed by one.
  3. Swinson's claim that her number one priority is to stop No Deal is a lie. Her number one priority is to sink Labour.
  4. The cross section of the above points keeps no deal in play despite all sides claiming they want a deal.

Brexit Guaranteed

Brexit, by some definition, is pretty much guaranteed.

But as I have stated before, Remain is far better than a bad deal.

Later today, the UK supreme court will rule on prorogation. The resolution of the above points will have a far greater impact on a deal (or no deal) than the court decision.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Labour Gaining at Expense of Liberal Democrats

UK Polls are tightening. Labour picked up support at expense of Liberal Democrats and undecided voters.

Liberal Democrats Officially Back Revoking Article 50, Rule Out Labour Alliance

The Liberal Democrats will make Brexit cancellation part of their official election platform.

Brexit Party Soars in European Parliament Polls, 9 Points Ahead of Labour

Nigel Farage's newly formed Brexit Party is in first place in European Parliament polls, pulling well ahead of Labour.

Odds of Brexit Deal Rise as 2 Most Recent UK Polls Show Lib Dems vs Labour Split

The strategies of Labour and the Lib Dems show they will split the Remain vote. This greatly enhances the odds of a deal

January Brexit Extension Increases Chance of No Deal

Donald Tusk and the Remainers seek a Jan 31 extension. France wants a shorter extension. Jan 31 is counterproductive.

Labour Initiative to Block No-Deal Brexit Fails: 10 Tories, 8 Labour Defy Whips

Thanks to 8 courageous Labour MPs who want to deliver Brexit, Corbyn's attempt to block a No Deal Brexit Fails.

Seven UK MPs Split from Labour Party Over Brexit

Politics in the UK split both the Tories and Labour. MPs in both parties refuse to do what their constituents asked.

Bad Brexit Deal Better Than No Deal? Mathematical Idiocy! Odds of No Deal?

At the top of the list of absurd Brexit advice is the notion that a bad deal is better than no deal. But that’s what Andrew Duff at the European Policy Center says.

Looking Like a Tory Blowout and Complete Collapse of Labour

I crunched the latest poll numbers region by region. It points to a blowout.