Calculated Risk puts out a nice chart of Initial Recession Claims every month.

The text anecdotes in blue are mine, as are the boxes.

I like the chart, not for what it says, but for what is doesn't say.

Will we have a recession warning or not?


My guess is no.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

16.78 Million Unemployment Claims in Last 3 Weeks

Unemployment claims rose 6.606 million in the week of April 4, the third consecutive miserable week.

Unemployment Claims More Than Double Last Week's Record Total

Initial unemployment claims more than double last weeks total, and last week was then the largest in history.

How Much Recession Warning Did You Expect?

How often have you heard the stock market looks a year ahead of a recession?

Unemployment Claims Spike to 3.28 Million, New Record High

Initial unemployment claims spiked to 3,283,000. That's nearly 5 times the previous high.

Another Recession Warning: ISM Contracts 4th Month

ISM fired another recession warning today as the manufacturing contraction extends another month.

Trump Asks States to Hide Unemployment Claim Data

The US dept of Labor told states to suppress specific unemployment claim data.

Last Week's Alleged Improvement in Unemployment Claims Was Just Revised Away

Jobless claims for the week ending February 6 were reported last week as 793,000. That was supposedly a sign of a strong job recovery. But it didn't happen.

On Average, How Long From Inversion to Recession?

Let's take a look at the last six recession. How long did it take from inversion to recession?

Surefire Recession Signal in Pictures

The strength of inversions widened today. That's a strong recession warning, but it is not the actual recession signal.