The spread between the GDPNow model and the Nowcast model of GDP predictions is the largest ever.

GDP Estimates

  • GDPNow: 4.6%
  • GDPNow Real Final Sales: 2.6%
  • GDPNow CIPI: 2.0%
  • Nowcast: 2.0%

The GDPNow Change in Private Inventories (CIPI) component is as large as the entire NOWcast GDP estimate.

Both forecasts are as of Friday, August 24.

Thus, today's jump in inventories has not yet hit the GDPNow estimate.

US Census Bureau Advance Inventories

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It is not certain how today's inventory numbers affect the GDPNow model. It all depends on what the model predicted vs the results posted above.

Regardless, we can say that at least one of these model predictions is not even in the ballpark.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Email Exchange With GDPNow Creator Pat Higgins on GDP Inventory Adjustments

GDPNow forecasts an inventory adjustment of -1.09 percentage points this quarter. What's going on?

GDPNow, Nowcast Divergence Remains One Percentage Point

In response to poor economic data this week, both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the FRBNY Nowcast Model reduced estimates by about 0.3 percentage points.

Discrepancy Between GDPNow and Nowcast is Two Percentage Points Once Again

In the past week, the GDPNow Model declined by 0.2 percentage points. The Nowcast Model for first quarter GDP inched down by 0.1 percentage points.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 1.3 Percent: One Heck of an Inventory Adjustment

The GDPNow and Nowcast forecasts are in alignment but the details and implications are not the same.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

Nowcast GDP Estimate 1 Percentage Point Higher Than GDPNow

Following Friday's jobs report the GDPNow forecast slid from 3.2% to 2.9%.

Massive 1.8 Percentage Point Spread Between GDPNow and Nowcast: What's Going On?

GDPNow estimates second-quarter GDP at 4.7%. The FRBNY Nowcast estimates 3.9%. Why the discrepancy?

GDPNow and Nowcast Estimates Continue Similar Second-Quarter Track

Only 0.2 percentage points separate the GDPNow and Nowcast estimates for the 2nd quarter. But what about inventories?

GDPNow vs Nowcast Gap Widens Again, Huge GDPNow Inventory Contribution

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Forecasts 4.2% GDP Growth. Nowcast is 2.3%. Inventories contribute 2.2 % to GDPNow.