In this snapshot, the 5-year, 3-year, and 2-year treasury yields inverted with the 1-year yield.

In addition, the 3-year yield inverted with the 2-year yield and the 3-month with the 1-month.

Debt Worries?

Despite the flattening and now inverting yield curve, note that the spread between the 10-year and 7-year bond actually rose over the course of 2018.


The spread between the 30-year long bond and the 10-year note is nearly what it was a year ago.

I believe this is a strong bond market signal that the end of the bond bull market approaches. It's possible it's already over. But I do expect one more strong push lower in yields as recession hits in 2019.

We have enormous deficits as far as the eye can see from a starting point of $21 trillion in debt.

Got Gold?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Number of Yield Curve Inversion Points Rises as the Long-Bond Yield Dives

The US Treasury 5-year yield is now inverted with 3, 2, and even the 1-year treasury yield.

First Inversion in Seven Years: Can a Recession be Far Off?

The 5-year to the 3-year portion of the yield curve inverted today. Inversion is typically a prelude to recession.

Fed Gets Opposite Response It Wanted: Inversions Strengthen

Counting the FF Rate, the yield curve flattened quite a bit but inversions between 3-month and long end widened.

Reader Questions on Yield Curve Inversions as a Recession Indicator

Reader Eric is curious about yield curve inversions. He writes …

Yield Curve Inversion Coming Up?

Several readers asked me to comment on the possibility of a yield curve inversion.

On Average, How Long From Inversion to Recession?

Let's take a look at the last six recession. How long did it take from inversion to recession?

Near Full Inversion: 10-Year Note Inverts With 1-Month T-Bill

The yield curve nears full inversion. Every duration higher than 1-month other than the 30-year long bond is inverted.

Yield Curve Inversions Again Stretch Out 7 Years

Huge portions of the the yield curve are inverted. Most of the inversions are by tiny amounts, but it's another warning.

Yield Curve Update: 10-Year vs 1-Month Inversion Persists

The yield curve inversion persists and even widened, selectively.