In this snapshot, the 5-year, 3-year, and 2-year treasury yields inverted with the 1-year yield.
In addition, the 3-year yield inverted with the 2-year yield and the 3-month with the 1-month.
Debt Worries?
Despite the flattening and now inverting yield curve, note that the spread between the 10-year and 7-year bond actually rose over the course of 2018.
The spread between the 30-year long bond and the 10-year note is nearly what it was a year ago.
I believe this is a strong bond market signal that the end of the bond bull market approaches. It’s possible it’s already over. But I do expect one more strong push lower in yields as recession hits in 2019.
We have enormous deficits as far as the eye can see from a starting point of $21 trillion in debt.
Got Gold?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The miners will give you the most leverage to gold price appreciation. Gold in general isn’t a great investment. I keep some physical gold/silver just as in case of shtf scenario which I think is unlikely. Keep in mind just before the last financial crisis gold and silver ran up quite a bit and crashed along with all assets. It did go up again when the money printing and quantitative easing began but started a long descent after peaking for a couple of days. It goes up almost parabolically on occasion and peaks for a very short period. The key is to try and sell when that happens.
Gold isn’t believing this latest rally in the market right now, as it keeps inching higher. A break above 1300 and gold should be off to the races very quickly.
I’ll take silver to.
I am encouraged by how gold has quietly closed st 1280 without much fan-fare from the mainstream media.
‘Nobody’ is paying attention to gold, and that is the reason to be firmly positioned in it now.
We’ve been watching it move for a month now. The last week and a half huge accelerations from flat to inversion. Looks like snakes wrapped around a straight pole if you make the graph of the last month.
Gold was up strongly today but the mining stocks dropped. Not a good sign for gold.
Tax loss selling for year end. Wait and watch what the miners do early on in 2019.
This is set up like 2015/2016 but with a 2 month lead and a stronger base.
I kept my portfolio stocked with miners as when this moves, you will want to have both feet in the pool. It will move rapidly.
How so? You will be proven wrong very soon.