Iran--3 to 4 weeks from rising cases to rising death

njbr

Florian Krammer---Professor at the Department of Microbiology Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai--a series of tweets from yesterday.

A lot of people see cases rising while deaths are going down in the US. Somebody who did not like my tweet earlier about the record cases today just pointed that out to me (and also calling me 'dipsh**'). So, I wanna tell a little story about Iran.......

  1. There are many reasons why the CFR might go down. We test more, we find more cases. There might be many more younger people infected while older people are more careful and stay at home. Management of COVID-19 got better. There might be several more reasons.....

  2. But I would be a little careful. So, Iran experienced a 'second wave' recently. Actually, it wasn't a second wave because the first one never went away. But anyways, after falling case numbers they started to rise again. I was curious about that on Twitter......

  3. Below is the curve. It starts to go up around May 1st again. But deaths did not go up. People explained to me, that now mostly young people are getting infected so nothing bad would happen......

  4. So, here is the graph for the deaths. That one started to rise again around May 25th. This is a solid 3-4 week delay. What happened? First, it takes time to die of COVID-19. Second, cases probably really built up in younger.....

  5. ......people. But they diffuse into older populations. And then the deaths rose (both graphs below ). Surely everybody - even the person calling me 'dipsh**' earlier - would agree that we need to do better than Iran. But looking at what happens in the US, I am not optimistic.

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