Hello Donald Tusk and Jean Claude Juncker
Hello @eucopresident Donald Tusk and @JunckerEU
WTF are you going to do when Britain ignores the backstop and Ireland does not put in controls?
Insurance notion is a scam unless you have an answer.
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) August 21, 2019
I asked that at 7:55 PM on Tuesday
Wednesday morning at roughly 3:00 AM UK MP Daniel Hannan asked a similar question.
Will Mexico Pay for the Irish Border?
The UK has promised not to erect a border. Ireland has promised not to erect a border. So who is going to build it? Donald Trump? With Mexico paying? https://t.co/fqSqJ4K9zG
— Daniel Hannan (@DanielJHannan) August 21, 2019
EU Insistence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1AkzzGhWmo
Since the EU insists there will be a backstop or a hard border, will someone, anyone, please tell me how that is going to work if Boris Johnson says the UK won’t abide by it and Ireland insists there will not be a border.
Hint
Someone is lying, and it is not Boris Johnson.
In case you disagree Let’s Discuss Brexit (and How the EU Bragged, on Film, About Screwing the UK).
No one supports a border.
This is the most obvious bluff in history and either Theresa May was dumb enough to fall for it it or she willingly went along with it.
I strongly suspect the latter.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Good bye to the British Empire….
England will leave with no deal, and Ireland will get kicked out of the EU, and then Scotland will leave GBritain, and join the EU.
The GB£ will sink way below 1/1 to the Euro…
GB conned the Commenwealth for 200 years with fake money, fixing gold to 3£ . for an ounze of gold….
Now gold is OVER 1200 £….
South Africa used to export 1100 TONS of gold per year in the 1950 – 70 at 35$ us.
Bad Carma is coming home for the Ex – British Empire, for mistreating the ” Commonwealth., This includes, Australia,New Zealand and Canada, so called friends and Allies….WAKE the Fuck up….
Borrow paper money at 0/neg interest rates and BUY gold and silver, thus destroying the fake money system with their own tricks.
They’ll ask Donald Trump to send the US Army to the border. Better still, they’ll send the EU Army to the border after they are done marching on and then surrendering to the Russians.
I’m thinking that the EU enforces the border – and it will be between Ireland and the mainland! Mish, what do you think?? I agree that the UK doesn’t want a border, and neither does Ireland. But at some point the EU countries will want to make sure that goods coming into the EU pass through controls. The only other place that makes sense to put these controls in is between Ireland and the continent. This would put Ireland into a customs union with the UK.
That is the logical thing to do, but it wont happen ! The amount of goods crossing the border between the UK and Ireland is tiny and frankly isn’t worth bothering about. It is mere political posturing by the EU and the Continental Europeans. It is also grossly insulting and hostile towards the UK showing a gross lack of basic respect for the Sovereignity of another State.
I wish I could see a good outcome for Ireland in this; I can’t. Decades of EU loans and low corporate tax rates have improved Irish Republic living standards and the resulting general prosperity on the island has pulled the fangs of the IRA in the seven counties of Northern Ireland.
Can someone explain why Northern Ireland, when once again subjected to the historical neglect of London politicians, post-Brexit, won’t slide inexorably back toward conflict? Think Puerto Rico. It’s in an analogous predicament, permanently suspended between periodic, well meaning congressional economic initiatives such as oil refining and pharma manufacturing which were subsequently killed by beltway lobbyists acting for domestic special (local constituency) interests?
I think the Irish are where we’d be if Sherman had been stopped north of Atlanta.
The equivalent situation would be if Puerto Rico voted to leave the US and join Venezuela. Why would they?
The IRA came mostly from the Republic of Ireland, not Northern Ireland. The mostly protestant Northern Irish voted overwhelmingly in a referendum to remain in the UK. If you were familiar with the culture of the catholic Southern Irish, it would be easier for you to understand why they would do that.
Who knows what the future may hold, but the Republic will need to change a good deal (and probably leave the EU) before the Northern Irish are likely to want to leave the safe harbour of the UK.
By the way, the Irish are the EU’s bad boys. The Irish economy improved largely because of low corporate taxes–and the EU are furious about that and are demanding the Irish make reparations to the EU and stop that nasty capitalism at once.
The IRA came from the whole island of Ireland. The Provisional IRA (PIRA) came exclusively from Ulster. The IRA were deemed not to have defended the Irish population against anti Irish pogroms instituted by the British population of Ulster.( CF Battle of the Bogside) The DUP are stuck in the 1690s. There is now a majority Irish population in Ulster and within 10 years there will me a majoity of Irish voters. The DUP are now a minority sect within Ulster. Do keep up to date.
Aren’t borders racist?
Or is that just an American thing…
Mish, no one has said they will not impose a hard border. In the event of a no deal brexit the EU will impose a hard border as they are required to do by WTO rules. Mrs May proposed the backstop. The EU agreed to it. The backstop was a UK policy.
Where, please tell us, does it say there is a need for a hard border in WTO?
THE TECHNOLOGY ALREADY EXISTS TO ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HARD BORDER.
UK told and showed the EU this nearly 2 years ago but because it negated one of the EU weapons to use against the UK the EU ignored it.
Grow up.
Please deliver the evidence in WTO rules.
What part of the ” most favoured nation ” rules don’t you understand? Absent a deal then under WTO rules you relax Border controls for everyone-not going to happen.
Those not supporting a backstop and not proposing a realistic alternative support a hard border, even if they will not admit it. For me this comes under the category of DUH! The EU and remainers have basically said you can leave if you wish, but you will not like the consequences because we are going to stick it to the UK so hard you will think you are having an endless litter of kittens. The hard border is just one of the planned methods of messing with the Brexiters.
Of course Ireland is also going to suffer. But the EU can compensate them for losses. Then there was the sad silly bluff by Scotland to terminate their status within the UK and join the EU as an independent land.
There actually is a broad feeling in Ulster that they should leave the UK and unify Ireland once and for all, and lest you think that is just more pie in the sky wishful thinking over nothing it was a condition that was included in the Good Friday Agreement, that they could at their own behest at any time hold a plebiscite on that very issue. Northern Irish have gotten used to an open border since 1998, and they also are widely displeased by their treatment in the UK government.
From September 2018
Karen Bradley admits ignorance of Northern Ireland politics
The Northern Ireland secretary says she was ‘slightly scared’ of the region before taking office
‘They don’t give a damn about us’: Belfast reacts to remarks
I would look forward to this as an Irish citizen, but only if it resulted in Ireland eventually leaving the EU itself. I lived there in 2017 and I find being an EU member has really decayed the culture. They were forced in and now should have the guts to leave. They could once again be the Celtic Tiger and in charge of their own destiny rather than submitting to EU cultural imperialism and forced multiculturalism.
Ireland will be just as east-west Germany. This time its the EU causing it.
Agree, this is all a bit academic as nobody will put up a border. It will simply lead to an internal EU crisis. Totally disagree with the notion put forward in the comment and other posts that Germany needs a deal in order export cars. The reality is that the UK does not build its own cars that anybody in the UK wants to buy….everybody wants German cars The cars built in the UK (e.g. Nissan) are largely exported. So if I were a German car manufacturer I would sleep fine at night knowing that the UK will come begging asking for a specific deal on cars pretty quickly.
Jon – love your thought process and comment…certainly food for thought. Though I suspect that it will still be Germany doing the begging as the UK is one of their major markets. No, they don’t need a deal, but what if Boris puts a 25% tariff on those cars? Will the UK consumer still wish to pay more for an already overpriced set of cars? Hyundai, KIA, Toyota are also very popular here in the UK…
As far as I am aware those cars aren’t built in the UK. …and surely Boris can’t put a 25% tax on German cars under WTO rules without applying the same tax to other countries. Toyota produce a model in the UK but the volumes are pretty small. I think Kia and Hyundai do not mfr in UK. Also why would Boris but on a 25% tax and kill off JLR, Aston Martin etc.
Supply chain onshore likely.
Bentley already stated (VW) they will cope and high end vehicle market in general.
Suzuki moving into UK for low-end using Toyota plant.
A fact – automotive is in the toilet. No matter what it’s not coming back fast, globally. Realignment, retrenchment will happen. Economies dependent on it are already feeling it. The whole automotive-industrial chain is being stressed and no cash for clunkers currently.
When my current car is done I will probably look towards a UK manufactured alternative unless foreign is much better. Not a cheap car.
Tariffs could force this and aid those already onshore. Japan did it post WW2 and post Brexit we might need the same sort of approach.
Don’t be ridiculous Jon, Boris can impose tariffs on whomever he likes. Trump on Chinese goods, Boris on German. What’s the difference? As for the UK begging for a deal in order to access German cars, your logic is warped. The only begging will be done by the relevant manufacturer — they’re the ones that are more inconvenienced than consumers. Consumers have the choice to pay up to buy the brand they want or go elsewhere. It’s not rocket surgery.
I would agree but UK market matters and BMW can onshore quickly.
Jaguar would be stupid not to address the BMW/Merc hole. I think they will. No surprise if this was planned a while back.
Jaguar just agreed deal with BMW – INTERESTING. Tech and I think floor pan share.
BMW have been looking at Honda plant. UK could be a source of export to where EU has barriers against them?
Less than ideal but not all doom and gloom.
Hyundai are becoming much more common top-bottom of the ranges and expect news out of Korea.
There was a Gov report on cost of onshoring automotive supply chain too – didn’t look excessively costly overall – it might be on the web somewhere.
I’m often wrong but was interesting Nissan cut-back announcement didn’t impact their UK plant. Hope this is a good sign. Very efficient operation in Sunderland and a great shame if that was hit.
UK has been encouraging via grants etc. In future only available, I hope, to companies ANCHORED in the UK. Not those that will upsticks and sail off.
After exit we need a strategy to back British business massively.
Interesting points. I work for a UK manufacturing company (not automotive) and we see a short term headache/business impact for all sorts of reasons. I think the longer term outlook will settle down and all will be fine. However, I still struggle to see any actual positive benefit. The use of EU standards really helps us, the negotiating power of the EU helps. Don’t quite understand what was broken in the first place. At least from a trade perspective (politics/accountability etc. a totally different mater).
‘Don’t quite understand what was broken in the first place.’
Democracy, Self Government and the Rule of Law. That’s what was broken. It isn’t all about money and never was.
Agree…you can make a personal subjective choice about the items you mentioned. However the trade argument for Brexit doesn’t hold up for me.
It does when you bother to understand the use of trade to create a Supra-national State. They go hand in glove.
Totally relaxed about that! Much rather be part of a big state in which I have some divested democracy. Alternative is to be scratching around asking for favours from US and China as they know we will have minuscule negotiating power. Not sure what is democratic about that.
Better to be unencumbered by parasitical large states that favour corporatism to the detriment of the consumer whilst lacking transparency and accountability.
When did you vote for Junker or Tusk?
How about this new face, did you have a say?
When was the EU Commission last fully audited?
For business the idea is you develop goods and services people need. As a manufacturer I hope you do that. Ideally with IP that can be protected.
WTO, for needed products, is adequate. Dyson shipped into the EU under WTO and has made a mint.
Why? Addressed a need in a way others didn’t and marketed the crap out of it.
Low taxes, rule of just common law, accountable and transparent government. That’s all we need. The rest is bloat.
There’s much bloat in a large state.
There are two misunderstandings about Brexit by those opposed to it. The first is that all Brexit voters are thick, xenophobic, racists etc, with a nostalgia for the days of Empire. This is crap and the sort of rubbish peddled by the odd commentator on here. The second misconception is that Brexit voters thought about trade. They didn’t and many of them have only a shaky knowledge of international trade as do most media pundits.
The Brexit vote, certainly around here where I live, centred around democracy and governance. The EU is specifically anti-Democratic and was set up to be so because people like Monet, Schumann etc believed, erroneously as it happens, that democracy had been the hand-maiden of Fascism which had lead to War, when in reality it was German Imperialism and the failure of the German State institutions that lead to Fascism and War.
What the past three years have graphically demonstrated is how right we all were to vote Leave. The evil May’s damned Withdrawal Agreement shows just how much control the EU has over all our lives and just how unaccountable it actually is.
Intrigued why it is seen as anti-democratic…is it just a mater of scale. Compared to the US where each state sends representatives to congress but then loses any control….in the EU each member state can veto most decisions which seems much more democratic. Anyway I think that is subjective so you could argue all day about it.
What is more tangible is specific items that have caused problems. Good things are mobile telephony, human rights, employment rights, product standards that significantly lower costs. Imagine there being enough continuity in individual national governments to enable these.
Really intrigued to get some real counter examples (beyond yesterday’s amusing blaming of the EU for the handball rule in football).
I’ve been told many times not to confuse Brexiteers with facts. They can’t handle them. Welcome abord.
TheLege – what do you think the impact of Boris imposing tariffs on German cars. Instantly the EU would retaliate….so Boris wouldn’t do it. It would have the effect of instantly making it impossible for UK manufacturers to sell into EU – so goodbye JLR which is in trouble as it is. The same has happened to Trump – the impact of his tariffs have been negative on the US – killing Soy farmers, creating confusion in the steel market and pushing up prices for consumers.
Good luck protecting IP in China as a small country.
BTW…I did vote for Juncker and Tusk via my UK representatives, MEPS and the representation on the European Council. I don’t remember directly voting for civil servants in the UK, anybody in the House of Lords, Boris Johnson as PM etc. etc.. It all comes down to a democratic mandate at some point. Yes in a larger state this becomes more remote and there is definitely a need to relook at setting the right level of control vs. local representation so everybody feels engaged. I feel more comfortable with the model of being engaged with Europe and trying to change this from within. Much better than being at Trump’s whim.
At no one’s whim. If anything much less so. We were in the EU when Blair did his massacres with the US.
The democratic representation in the EU is massively lacking. Just another variation on large states like USSR or even China.
These people are not Civil Servants. They are the face of 400M people and their selection obviously doesn’t work when the likes of Junker are chosen. Anyone else turning up for work drunk would be fired on the spot.
As for China and IP – more a problem for the big boys. It doesn’t stop anyone from dealing with them. Apple, VW, BMW, Samsung etc all have plant and/or research there. They seem ok with it.
Eire pays and erects.
It then shows the EU as the party wishing to see partitioning. Hypocrites.
This is not a UK tax payer problem but an Eire tax payer problem.
It has always been thus but UK elements decided to take it upon themselves as a problem. We have enough problems of our own, this is the EU’s.
Every individual that was in Theresa May’s Government that stood up to the EU was removed or resigned. This was on purpose for obvious reasons.
Hollande said the UK should be punished, Brussells mock.
Let them do as they will and both sides prepare to accept the consequences of their actions and words.
“Peace to all nations.”
How long until Irexit?
They won’t. Net beneficiaries.
Irish unable to think for themselves.
They will have a problem when France looks to have the tax playing field levelled & when more controls are taken to Brussells. They also become net contributors.
Irish will protest on tax as they had assurances when they voted on the Lisbon treaty but France will get It’s way one way or another, directly or indirectly.
The Irish are lambs amongst wolves and don’t realise it or care not to recognise it. Used to being ruled from outside they swapped the British for the EU with a civil war inbetween. Don’t even have their own currency – talk about giving away your freedom.
Taffy was a welshman, Taffy was a thief, Taffy stayed at my house and stole a side of beef. Your gratuitous racism shows that you live in the 1950s. We can all play that game. How many welshmen can you fit in a mini? %), make one a foreman and the rest will crawl up his arse. How dare you be so offensive?
I’m Welsh!
Really?
Yes, really.
You exhibit an extreme narrow mindedness that leads you to believe you are special.
I also spend a considerable amount of time in Northern Ireland and Eire – considerable.
This past year have been in multiple EU states too and put up with anti-British sentiment and been verbally abused immediately on introduction to a French businessman in the US. He clearly expressed his dislike for the English not realising I’m Welsh. That is rascism. I didn’t bother to correct the ass-hole.
It is Ireland, not Eire. I’m not surprised you were abused. You don’t know when you are being offensive. You also seem to be slow on the uptake.
“Éire (Irish: [ˈeːɾʲə] is Irish for “Ireland”, the name of an island and a sovereign state.”
Mish – Gotta Agree. The EU has not negotiated this in good faith…they have insisted on agreeing the Withdrawal prior to discussing the future (against Article 50 as you pointed out)…then at the same time are pushing for their pet future condition (the backstop) INTO the Withdrawal agreement (the rules apply to you not us in other words). That alone is reason to reject the WA. Tusk and the EU are big bullies and do not want to lose face, or give Italy, Greece and others even a sniff that leaving the EU is easy or even possible. They know if they give an inch, the captives in the prison will take a mile. The problem though is that this stance cuts off their nose to spite their face…when the economy goes into the toilet, and all this negative yielding debt blows up in their faces, the EU will be dying to get a decent trade agreement with the UK in order to export all their BMW’s and Mercedes…they are stuck in a trap of their own arrogance. I am a U.S. expat living in the UK and have been working hard to convince my Remainer friends of this danger…it’s a hard slog but eyes need to be opened. Go Boris!
There are no UK made import substitutes, so it is German, Japanese, French or Indian cars or nothing. You are American? You know all about bullying then. I’m sure that Denmark and the EU can tell you all about bullying. The American car industry has given up the ghost to European and Japanese car manufacturers.You do not have a single market in America that bares comparison with the single market. Your President is a protectionist. Maybe it is a hard slog because you don’t know what you are talking about.
I don’t know about you but myself even though I’m American I prefer a bunch of strong small countries so if things get bad in any one country I can vote with my feet…I recommend you read “Elephant in the Room” by Greece’s ex-finance minister…eye opening
The title is Adults in the Room.