The IRS forecasts there will be about 229.4 million employee-classified jobs in 2021 -- about 37.2 million fewer than it had estimated last year, before the virus hit, according to updated data released Thursday. The statistics are an estimate how many of the W-2 tax forms that are used to track employee wages and withholding the agency will receive.
Lower rates of W-2 filings are seen persisting through at least 2027, with about 15.9 million fewer forms filed that year compared with prior estimates.
There’s one category that is expected to rise: The IRS sees about 1.6 million more tax forms for gig workers next year compared with pre-pandemic estimates.
That boost “likely reflects assumptions with the shift to ‘work from home,’ which may be gig workers, or may just be that businesses are more willing to outsource work -- or have the status of their workers be independent contractors -- now that they work from home,” Mike Englund, the chief economist for Action Economics said.
Fewer W2s, Not Jobs
Those are fewer W2, not jobs. Some people work multiple jobs or switch jobs multiple times, but 37 million less W2 is surely many millions less jobs assuming the IRS projection is in the ballpark.