Sweden says its model worked, but Numbers Suggest a Different Story.
Sweden’s Covid-19 deaths per capita are 3 to 6 times its Nordic neighbors.
Nordic Country Restrictions
Sweden vs Nordic Neighbor Deaths
On a per capita basis, Sweden’s Covid-19 deaths are 3 to 5.5 times the other Nordic countries.
Sweden has just over 3 times the death rate of Denmark. But note Denmark’s population density disadvantage of 138:25.
Success or Failure?
Success is in the eyes of the beholder.
A death rate 5.5x is acceptable to some but not others.
But Sweden has a ton of pressure to under-report Covid deaths. I would be shocked if they didn’t.
Regardless, one can easily look at this data, ignore the undercounts (perhaps even factor some in), and conclude Sweden did the right thing.
But how does that translate to the US?
Population Density of NYC
For comparison purposes, the Population Density of New York City is 26,403 people per square mile (10,194/km²), makes it the densest of any American municipality with a population above 100,000.
Manhattan’s population density is 66,940 people per square mile (25,846/km²), highest of any county in the United States
Sweden Not a Good Model
Even if one is happy with Sweden’s results, it is not a representative model for large US cities.
R0 – Infection Transmission
Nate Silver has an Interesting Twitter Thread on R0, the the number of people someone will infect on average, if they catch it.
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:
Newly reported deaths:
Today: 1,651
Yesterday: 1,743
One week ago (4/25): 1,818Newly reported cases:
T: 30K
Y: 34K
4/25: 36KNewly reported tests:
T: 265K
Y: 305K
4/25: 271KPositive test rate:
T: 11%
Y: 11%
4/25: 13%— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 2, 2020
Nate Silver Followups
- The positive test rate, which I believe is a better metric than the raw number of + tests, continues to show slow, incremental improvement. But I do mean *slow*. It’s consistent with a nationwide R of around 0.9, where R>1 means the epidemic is growing & R<1 means it’s shrinking.
- That is a national average, however. There are places like NY where there’s a reasonably steep decline (R of perhaps 0.7-0.8). In turn, there are likely to be other places where infections are still growing (R of perhaps 1.1 to 1.3) and it isn’t just an artifact of more testing.
- Overall, there isn’t a lot of room for error. A few states have had clear, sustained improvement and may have room in their R “budget” to relax restrictions. But for many others, even slight changes could bring R >1. Or R may be >1 already.
- That’s not to say it’s necessarily up to policymakers. I don’t care about the state capitol protests, which are an overplayed story. But it’s clear from e.g. mobility data that people are moving around more and abiding less strictly by social distancing.
- I wish we knew more about what this activity consisted of. Taking a nice, long drive to a non-crowded state park should be pretty safe, for instance. But pressure points seem to be outdoor activity in more crowded spaces, and small-to-medium-sized social gatherings.
Reopening Too Early
At an R0 that’s well below 1, the disease will die out (but perhaps return later in the Autumn or Winter).
Ar R0 of 1, the current results can go on for a long time.
An end to the lockdowns too early could easily send R0 back well above 0.
The latter is what everyone want to avoid.
Mish
“click”:https://www.gmail.com
click
Swedish … deaths are overwhelmingly among the frail elderly and those with serious chronic disease. Over half of Swedish deaths are in nursing homes. Of those who died, 90 percent were over 70 and half were over 86, with just 1 percent younger than 50.
Love this, a ‘learned ignoramus’…
IMPOSSIBLE to judge Sweden’s policy, let alone condemn it, in just a matter of weeks! Let’s reassess the situation next year this time and then we might know whether they got it right….or wrong ….
How even-handed…no one will listen to you, of course.
Article on the Asian Flu back in 1957…
I fail to see how much “intelligence”. medical or otherwise, was demonstrated in 1957.
The NYTimes opines “Let us all keep a cool head about Asian influenza as the statistics on the spread and the virulence of the disease begin to accumulate. For one thing, let us be sure that the 1957 type of A influenza virus is innocuous, as early returns show, and that antibiotics can indeed control the complications that may develop.”
Intelligent? LOL! Same old crap from the same old crap.
And “mostly people paid no attention other than to keep basic hygiene.”
Intelligent? I wonder how many sick people wore masks? Or whether any “medical intelligence” actually advised them to? I would hope so …
This on top of:
“Again, this was a very serious flu, and it persisted for 10 years until it mutated to become the Hong Kong flu of 1968.”
So other than displaying a very laissez-faire, “oh well, very bad stuff happens, but at least not to me” attitude, I’m not so sure the author didn’t very much make the opposite point of his intent …
You are so wrong on this one Mish it is very surprising . . . I would hazard a guess that Sweden’s overall infection rates is many time greater than any of its neighbors which means it will reach herd immunity earlier than its neighbors and it the end death rates between the countries will be probably be more or less the same unless medicines that can help cure the virus are found and used before herd immunity is achieved. Keep an open mind . . . Science is far from perfect especially when humans are manipulating it for other purposes . . .
What? Did less people get the flu when everyone was put under house arrest? Who would have thought! Gues we just have to lock people up indefinitely then! Then we wont even have traffic accidents anymore… Look at all the fine numbers! Damn Sweden, letting people still drive… Look at their traffic accidents now compared to all those other countries who have abolished driving!
And by the way… what do you think will happen when everyone gets out again? Hint: They will catch the flu regardless. And then you crashed the economy for absolutely nothing. You have to compare the same country with the same numbers from erlier years of course. And in Sweden it’s still no worse than the flu of 2018.
Sweden is running 4 to 10 times the death rate of its neighbors. Sweden will be done in a few months without causing social and economic mayhem. People here are starting to travel, so, infections will pick up. We will get to approximately the same number of deaths per age group and co-morbidity as long as hospitals are not overloaded. But, we will do it in slow motion with enormous collateral damage — economic, political, social and psychological.
The plan here is to push the infection rate to the point that contact tracing is viable and wait for a vaccine. That is the beginning of next year at the earliest, maybe never. How long are you willing to wait? What percentage of your life are you willing to live isolated from friends and family in our new-normal police state? Social distancing is not a viable response for long periods of time. It is contrary to basic human social behavior and will not last.
Agreed. Many people here in CA were not following the SD thing or the stay at home thing anyway.
Meanwhile, watching John King on CNN, talking head anchor this AM, he was sour faced and visibly upset that the WH is now predicting up to 3k deaths pr day across the USA through June 1. We will see how close this prediction comes to being correct, given all the wrong predictions the WH has made.
But even if it does, the vast majority of people dying are in the advanced years and have been sick with other diseases. Most were hanging on by a thread anyway, unable to do much of anything. When your time has come, your time has come…
It’s easy to say “Sweden has it right”, but harder to identify exactly what it was that they have right. Other countries have tried similar policies, such as Brazil, or even Italy. They kept their economy open, until they reached the point that they couldn’t dig graves fast enough . Sweden didn’t do anything Brazil didn’t do, so why did is “work” for Sweden, but lead to a disaster in Brazil, and other places? What is different about Sweden that caused their death rate to be “only” 274 per million, rather than the 684 per million in Belgium? What, exactly, did Sweden do “right” that enabled them to keep their economy open?
The only hint we have is that deaths have been unusually low in all the Scandanavian countries, including Norway, Denmark, Iceland, and Faroe Islands. Why? Is it something we can implement here? Is genetic (say, pale skin gives them a better ability to convert Vitamin D?) Dietary (lutefisk smells like it would kill anything). Cultural (built in social distancing, or perhaps they often wear scarves?)
Before jumping to a conclusion, we need to figure out what enabled Sweden to stay open without the massive deaths that happened in every other country that tried the same thing. Suppose you have ten people, each with a car. Six of them opt to put on the brakes, but four of them choose to drive full speed into a wall. Italy, Spain, and Brazil all die, but the Swede lives. Should you conclude “the Swede has it right! We can all drive safely into the wall.”, or should you examine his car to try to find the differences before you head for the wall yourself?
My dear chap, you are confusing your fisks.
Lutefisk: dried fish that is rehydrated in lye and water. Tolerable if you starving.
Rakfisk: the fermented stuff that is tolerable if you are (i) very, very drunk or (ii) upwind.
Regarding Sweden: I am certain that the Scandinavians do derive immense benefit from diet and exercise. I lived out there for a couple of years in the late 1990s. It was rare to see an obese person. It’s not quite so rare now, but it is very clear that the Scandinavians are much better at being outdoors than those of us here in the UK, for example.
But I think there is also something around rule-following. They are (at least outside of certain suburbs of Stockholm and Malmo) still functional societies and, particularly outside of the major cities, there is a palpable sense of community that doesn’t exist in the UK. For example, 17th May is a huge patriotic celebration in Norway. Parades all over the place, traditional dress, flags waving absolutely everywhere. Stand in Oslo without a flag, and somebody will shove one into your hand. If you are interested, google “syttende mai” and watch the youtube vids. In the UK, that would be deemed to be offensive to somebody or other. We simply don’t have such events.
Point being that when somebody says “social distance”, in the UK that means “try to carry on as before, because you can always blame the government for not acting fast enough”. Whereas in Scandinavia, it means “think of your neighbour”.
As somebody who believes in borders and nations (or rather, doesn’t believe that societies can function without some shared belief in the values of that society – which has nothing to do with skin colour) I think it will be interesting to see whether death rates in a country in any way correlate with the level of [nationalism|patriotism|community] practiced within that country.
Not being Scandanavian, I freely admit to not being a “fisk” expert, and can thankfully admit that I have never personally encountered either, though I have had a pickled herring or two. Thank you for the reply. The low obesity and greater exercise you mention may explain a lot. The three biggest risk factors, in no particular order, are obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. Low obesity and greater exercise would mean a lot lower death rate. I’m glad, I have to admit, to know that the answer is not either “fisk”.
So, perhaps the statement “Sweden has it right” might better be written “Sweden has it right, for every country where the population is not obese and gets plenty of exercise”.
The countries where it “didn’t work” also had about the same death numbers as they’ve had from the flu every other year…. Italy fx is always a catastrophy every flu season. Nothing extraordinary this time.
Nothing extraordinary? Total deaths in Italy are up to six times the normal rate of deaths this year. That is definitely extraordinary.
The new word on the duration of social distancing is now 2 years. My chance of dying in that time of causes other than C19 is about 2.8% My chance of dying of C19 if I get it, maybe 1 to 3%. Two years of isolation is a big chunk of my time left on the planet. It is my choice. I’m going to see my grandchildren. Sweden has it right.
Agree with some of the comment above that using simple, arithmetic population density can be very misleading. A better option would be “lived density” proposed by Alasdair Rae in 2018. If one uses this metric, the difference in numbers between the countries discussed here is much less dramatic: Sweden 84, Denmark 183, Norway 89, Finland 53.
But the differences in deaths per million remain just as dramatic.
Fareed Zakaria’s Sunday GPS show had a good segment on why Sweden never locked down. Also some other good segments worth watching. See the list below.
I assert that the personal and economic mayhem that is caused to the 99.9% survivors of the virus will be at least an order of magnitude worse for society than any benefit (assuming there is one when all is said and done) of the various degrees of quasi-martial law being inflicted on societies.
I am not sure why it keeps getting removed from the comments, but I strongly encourage viewing Bill Maher’s interview with Dr. David Katz. I have posted the YouTube link a couple of times, including today, and it keeps disappearing after I post it.
“…you support free market capitalism while suggesting that society’s behavior has to be micro managed by the government.”
An example of an oxymoron.
We are talking 2/10,000 population. Maybe we should be talking hypertension and smoking/lung cancer. Or alcoholism. Big gov hasnt gone full retard on any of those health threats.
“The latter is what everyone want to avoid.”
What everyone supposedly wanted to avoid was overwhelming the hospitals.
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s government advisor for epidemiology explains, “We are all trying to keep the spread of this disease as low as possible, mainly to prevent our healthcare system from being overstretched, but we have not gone for the complete lockdown. We have managed to keep the number of cases low enough so the intensive care units have kept working and there has always been 20 per cent beds empty and enough protective equipment, even in Stockholm, where there has been a huge stress on healthcare. So in that way the strategy has worked.”
Sweden hasn’t trashed their economy, like the U.S. has. 30 million unemployed in the space of weeks is overwhelming the unemployment departments. People are not getting benefits in a timely manner. The Paycheck Protection Program hasn’t been a shining model of success, either. Food banks are overwhelmed.
As far as i am aware, Sweden doesn’t have these problems, not to mention an increasingly restless population that wants to get back to work, so they can pay their bills.
Sweden has its challenges. It is not Norway – no vast, oil revenue funded, sovereign wealth fund. It has roughly double the unemployment rate of its neighbour, which is why Norwegians joke that Sweden’s major export is waiters. And actually, it’s about double the UK’s too. Point being that it is not self sufficient and is therefore likely to be hit by the headwinds affecting the global economy.
“The New York Post begrudgingly acknowledged that Sweden received praise from the high chair of global public health at the World Health Organization (WHO), now lauded it as a “model” for overcoming the coronavirus crisis.”
Yeah sure, the WHO has been right on top of everything, with the best information and advice, from the very beginning …
Remember the three little pigs and the wolf? Only one pig built a house to survive. Most governors are behaving like the two dumb pigs and are moving to the Sweden model. These lockdowns should exist until we can lower the case count and implement more testing and contact tracing. Every Governor is on their own and the Blue States are wealthier. Bloomberg is investing in NY and CA has deep pockets. Hawaii will be the first to beat the virus. What surprises me is the short-sightedness of many Governors, particularly Southern ones. Wave 2 will slam their residents within 4 months or less. They know the wolf is blowing their way. So sad.
That’s why Apple and Google are ready to rollout the new contact tracing technology. Newsom has been working with them. You can google Newsom, Apple and google and pick up many articles. Apple has a press release on it. The new app will work Collaboratively across Apple and android phones. Californians are tech savvy people so I expect wide adoption. This story will soon dominate the news.
Current numbers are meaningless. I bet as soon as restrictions are erased in the locked down countries their numbers are going to rise, while Sweden’s will stay the same or trend lower. All that the locked down countries have accomplished is prolonged the pain while ruining their economies and angering population. While certain measures make sense, everything should’ve been voluntary and people should be responsible for their own well being. I’m very surprised that you have completely opposing philosophies – you support free market capitalism while suggesting that society’s behavior has to be micro managed by the government. Really odd to me…
“…you support free market capitalism while suggesting that society’s behavior has to be micro managed by the government.”
This bothers me as well. I hear my own “free market” friends saying things like “if we let people do what they want, everyone else would run around infecting other people even if you told them to be careful”
If you wouldn’t do it, why do you assume that everyone else would? Or is this just your elitist side peeking out from under your libertarian blanket?
And let’s assume for a second that you’re right and a large number of people just did whatever they wanted. Why might they do that? Could it have a anything to do with the fact that 99 times out of 100, their governments have straight up lied to them about everything under the sun? You can’t just keep doing that and not expect that at some point – when you need them to believe you, people are going to say “yeah whatever” and go about their business.
Aesop devoted an entire fable to this reality.
And even if it’s true that they would ignore the advice to be “socially distant,” what is stopping you from locking yourself in your house or wearing a hazmat suit everywhere you go? If you’re scared, take whatever precautions you deem necessary but leave everyone else the hell alone.
I think Bill Maher is a dick, but his bit this past weekend was on the money – our national response to this was to make everyone act like Howie Mandel – and it’s an abject failure on the part of government to have fostered that reaction.
Didn’t think it would be on YouTube – but there it was…
So far Sweden’s numbers statistically would indicate their policy has caused far more infections and death than would have otherwise happened.
Take into consideration also that because there was no formal lockdown, that does not mean the people of Sweden did not practice precautions such as social distancing, self quarantine, and improved hygiene. This statistical difference is measuring in fact the success or failure of failing to close businesses that are deemed high risk by their nature.
Partially measuring that success…you have to calculate the mostly unseen cost of the lockdown to get a clear picture of the facts. You also have to wait for many months after the other country’s lockdown is over to know how much it helped.
Although there are many “expert” opinions, I take what Johan Giesecke (infectious disease specialist and advisor to the Swedish Government regarding COVID-19) says seriously. Sweden may have a higher mortality rate at the moment, but if his analysis is correct, in the end, the total number of deaths will not be much different regardless of policy methods used to slow the spread. Sweden will achieve herd immunity (assuming this is possible with COVID-19) sooner than other countries. As long as the capacity of the hospital system to treat COVID-19 patients is not exceeded, then ripping off the band-aid quickly would seem to be a sensible strategy.
Regarding Mortality Rates: Apparently these are calculated differently between countries. Yes there would be incentive for Sweden to under-report deaths. In an interview I listened to recently with Johan Giesecke, he states that the Netherlands does not use COVID-19 deaths that occur in nursing homes in its official mortality rate calculations. I cannot confirm this but if true, the actual mortality rates reported by the Netherlands could be significantly higher. Nursing home deaths related to COVID-19 account for 30% or greater of all COVID-19 deaths in some countries.
Another point that isn’t discussed enough is the morbidity and mortality associated with a lock down state and with worsening economic conditions. Although there are ZERO reported COVID-19 related deaths in my county, I have seen an increase in the number of serious child abuse cases over the past month. In addition, patients that would normally be receiving medical care, including cancer screening and follow-up care, are not receiving it. This will worsen with the loss of health insurance and subsequent avoidance of seeking care due to inability to pay. Although these secondary effects are difficult, if not impossible, to measure, they are very real and will no doubt be substantial and lasting even after the coronavirus has vanished.
Swedes do not under-report deaths. There are official numbers of coronavirus deaths: link to experience.arcgis.com
and official all cause deaths preliminary statistics:
The excess lines up perfectly with coronavirus reported deaths.
RE: “The Swedes will be protected from these waves through herd immunity.”
Funny that I hear all these people referring with such certainty to “herd immunity” to SARS-COV-2 when things still unknown about COVID-19 include prevalence, effectiveness, and duration of post-infection immunity.
People need to keep in mind that SARS-COV-2 is a coronavirus. Influenza viruses are NOT coronaviruses. Common cold viruses ARE coronaviruses.
There is no vaccine for and no immunity to the common cold coronaviruses.
I’m not saying all this proves that there will be no immunity to SARS-COV-2 … only saying that the assumption there will be is based far more on hope than on evidence.
If things are still unkown, then how do you back coercive government action based on subjective assumptions?
Probably that when you know there is risk but don’t know the degree of risk it’s best to err on the side of caution … you know, “better to be safe then sorry”
As in when someone phones in a bomb scare to 11 Wall St, New York, NY it’s probably a good idea to evacuate the building rather than sitting around for several hours debating just how likely the threat is real or not …
Herd immunity does not necessarily mean immunity. It can also mean that the susceptible are dead.
Under the assumption, possibly true, or not, that if there is no immunity then not displaying susceptibility to one wave guarantees that you won’t be susceptible to subsequent waves of a possibly mutated strain of the same virus. (And RNA viruses are more likely to mutate than DNA viruses)
Even if there is immunity to the initial wave/strain(s) there is no guarantee that immunity will be effective against subsequent wave(s)/strain(s).
Which is why you should never allow fallible human beings to fiddle around in labs with “enhancement of function” research on viruses that have already proven problematic enough in their natural form …
Riddle me this, if surviving the virus does not provide immunity, what are the chances of creating a vaccine from dead or impaired virus that will?? Just what the F are we waiting for?
Most of the vaccines in testing do not use dead or impaired viruses, for that exact reason.
RE: “Just what the F are we waiting for?”
That’s the trillion dollar question … and IMO the answer has to come from more knowledge about the disease, far more widespread and accurate testing, mask-wearing, etc. and has to lie somewhere between the unwise extremes of “Everybody lockdown indefinitely / until SARS-COV-2 is eradicated!” and “Back to the way things were, NOW! Let the chips fall where they may!”
Yes, Sweden has more deaths upfront, earlier than other countries. But when other countries start opening up, the virus will sweep in again in waves and they will go back to lockdowns. The Swedes will be protected from these waves through herd immunity. And their economy remains practically intact. Sweden has not been following the herd; instead of emulating China‘s method of fighting COVID like the U.S. is doing, Sweden is successfully fighting the virus and will thrive while the rest of the world craters its economy huddled inside until a vaccine comes along (October of 2021 by Dr. Fauci’s estimate).
The lockdowns in America will not be sustainable though the Summer, people will not remain inside all Summer, it just won’t happen. The protests will turn into riots soon and governors will lose control.
Sweden does not exist in a bubble. If you think Sweden’s economy will be practically intact after this….
It is truly proof of the skull-bone to brain ratio present in America and in this discussion.
These are the known facts.
Without a vaccine, approximately 80% of people will be exposed to this virus.
Of that, 10 or 15% will require hospitalization.
A small percentage will die.
If everyone is exposed in a short time, all medical systems are overwhelmed and far more will die than would happen if the case load were throttled to keep the case load manageable.
Ways of managing case loads include social distancing and masks. Enough testing to identify active cases and to determine who has had it. Enough medical supplies to ensure that the medical systems are effective and not destroyed by killing off or sickening your medical providers.
The problem is that you knuckleheads (high ratio of bone to brain) refuse to do ANY of the mitigation in that last paragraph.
So how many life years would be saved, and how many life will be lost due to the implosion of the economy across the globe?
“10-15% of cases will require hospitalization”
And this is where something doesn’t add up. Because….
This is just an anecdote, but there does seem to be pent up demand:
Please note that El Dorado County is a red county that will vote for the orange baboon.
About 10 days ago in the Netherlands, the official medical team announced that some 3-4% of the population seem to have antibodies now – with the usual caution not to draw too many conclusions out of it. If Sweden much higher now, the quarantine thing was just delaying the inevitable destroying the economy in the process. One can also let the young all get it quickly, then use their serum to help the elderly. Of course, if a serum/vaccine is developed next month I would have to take this all back.
Yes but the Netherlands is a “don’t test, don’t tell” country. Despite having more molecular biologists per capita than any other country, they’re out with Kazakhstan and Azerbajistan in terms of testing. The Dutch CDC still officially denies asymptomatic transmission, thinks masks are harmful (?why do they exist), and said at the outset that they were more than prepared. Two days later they ran out of PPE and test kits.
Age 90+: 24% of deaths. Age 80-89, 40.5% of deaths. Age 70-79, 23% of deaths. Age 70 and above, 87% of deaths. Perhaps seniors should consider remaining under lock down.
Heaven forbid we try to apply an 80-20 rule: one set of recommendations for the elderly and diseased, and another set for the younger and healthy. That wouldn’t fit with the politics of victimization — the purpose of which is to sacrifice the strong.
What about the other side of the coin? How is Sweden’s economy faring compared to neighbors?
Sweden has a pretty advanced pharma industry…..
While Norway produces oil…
And Finland produce car tires and cruise ships…..
Without knowing specifics, that naively sure looks promising for Sweden…
The article I read on Belgium is that they are including deaths at home and nursing homes where the deceased had symptoms of Covid-19. That is consistent with a 5-year history of 300 deaths per day, and now 600 deaths per day during the pandemic.
“But Sweden has a ton of pressure to under-report Covid deaths. I would be shocked if they didn’t.”
More bull from Mish. Your bias as ever on this covid19 coverage is embarrassing. I would have been shocked if you had compared to other countries like Belgium/Netherlands but no. Cherry picking you stats as usual. What about the total failure of lockdown in NYC. No mention of that, What about Iceland and Belarus. They didn`t do total lockdown either.
Lemmings! Swedes deliberately chose to let octogenarians die, save economy over spread of epidemic, and on top of all that, some of them tatoo Tegnell face on their arms. No people is more dupe, shallow, naive than majority of swedes.
I still wish we knew what was going on in China. Despite their minuscule (reported) figures, they just locked down an additional 10 million+ people (Harbin) a few days ago.
Some transparency from China would accomplish two major things:
We’re all still groping around in the dark to this point. We won’t even know if Sweden is a success for a while, but it has been weird seeing so many people praise them, especially since they’re usually portrayed as a basket case by the same people.
Sweden’s laissez-faire #lockdown is working.
And they are saving their economy!
Sweden’s unusual approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic is starting to yield results, according to the country’s top epidemiologist.
Facts are:
Distance from Sweden to Belgium 1,610 km via E4.
The current population of Belgium is 11,581,402
The current population of Sweden is 10,088,936
#Covid19 deaths – Belgium: 7,765 ( 0.067%)
#Covid19 deaths – Sweden: 2,669 (0.026%)
Please check my math?
Why are they are lying?
The differences are not absolute. Swedes are practicing social distancing and their economy is taking a big hit too. The difference is that most measures are voluntary rather than Big Brother, and less zeal in killing small business.
Could be your comment more stupid?! I don’t think. Your theory would work if virus was UNIFORMLY spread, sprayed over the air in all of Europe. Same amount of virus over the skies of Belgium and Sweden, in order to see the results of different strategies. But virus spreads via travelling people and OUTBREAKS. Switch on “plain thinking” before talking of “mathematics”. According to your theories, the inhabitants of Antarctica did the best of all!!
The comparison to Belgium can be misleading, because Beglium counts anyone who is suspected of having died of Covid regardless of testing. For example, although more than half of the people in Belgium who died from the virus were in nursing homes, less than 5% were actually confirmed as having the disease.
I suspect if other countries including Sweden adopted the Belgian style of reporting, we would see a far higher death rate.
Newsflash! everyone doesn’t die from CV19!
More Than 1 Million People Have Recovered From COVID-19 Worldwide
May 1, 2020
Why Sweden Succeeded While Others Failed
Mike Whitney • April 30, 2020
How do you measure success in dealing with an illness for which there is no cure?
This is the question we need to ask ourselves before judging which country’s approach has been most successful in dealing with the coronavirus. The fact that there is no silver bullet, no vaccine, does not change the fact that leaders must seek the best possible way forward by crafting a social policy that helps to achieve their goals. In my opinion, most of the European countries and the United States have imposed a social policy that is the least likely to help them achieve the objectives that they should be pursuing. In other words, while the “containment” strategy of self isolation and social distancing might temporarily prevent the spreading of the virus (and prevent the health care system from collapsing), the infection will undoubtedly reemerge when the lockdown is lifted causing a sharp uptick in the cases and deaths. This is the problem that many countries, including the US, now face. They want to loosen the current restrictions, but additional easing unavoidably triggers a surge in new cases. So, what is to be done?
…
That is a really good article. I found the last part, where he quotes from a Wall St Journal article, really insightful:
“The trouble started in mid-March when “herd immunity,” previously the tacit or acknowledged endgame for most of the world, became a toxic phrase. Critics pointed out that allowing the virus to spread in a controlled manner would cost lives. They presented a stark alternative of total lockdown or the disaster of Italian hospitals, with no middle ground. But if those experts have a more plausible plan than taking a controlled path to herd immunity, the world is waiting to hear it. Experts propose instead either that we await the arrival of a vaccine or that we ramp up testing and contact tracing of the infected. Good luck. A vaccine is a year or more in the future, if one ever emerges….” (“Maybe the Experts Were Right About Covid-19 the First Time”, Wall Street Journal)
I am always wary of comparisons to Scandinavian countries. They have relatively small, very well educated populations that generally elect sensible leaders. So they mostly govern sensibly and the people go along with it. I know a couple of Swedes and they say that although there is no lockdown, people only go out if they have to and most people still stay home as much as possible. In essence they still practice all the recommended social distancing and hygiene. There are few places left in the world where the social contract is strong enough that people will willingly make sacrifices and endure inconvenience for the sake of their fellow citizens. This is where I struggle with these lockdowns, people have have rights and freedoms but along with those come responsibilities as well, and in too many places do people expect to enjoy freedom without that responsibility.
Sweden has a stronger constitution than we do in the US? Maybe they have less sheep.link to youtube.com
Brazil’s response was essentially the same, yet it doesn’t seem to be working out at all well for them. Why do you think that is?
I thought Mish was a numbers guy.
[1] Population density is an important factor, but only factual population density matters. The actual population density in Indian cities or in Egypt is far higher than dividing the population by the area of the country (Egypt is 95% desert), and far higher even than Manhattan with its vertical housing. Population density calculated by arbitrary units called nation states is meaningless. There is virtually no difference between population density in Stockholm and Copenhagen.
[2] It’s about the accumulated number of deaths. We have absolutely no data on that, so how can we judge the effects. We also have no data on the costs over decades, and probably never will, since it is all based on counter-factuals.
This is all about the seen and the unseen…
My prediction. More life years will be lost in the US due to losing health care coverage than could possibly be saved by staggering ventilator use.
The relative population density was an issue I saw too.
However, why not compare to Sweden’s death rate (2,700) to countries of similar populations with several large cities? Belgium (7,765 deaths), Czechia (245 deaths), Portugal (1,024 deaths).
What stands out to me is that 0.1% of 10 million is 10,000. We seem to have reached about a halfway point and we’re not approaching that number in almost any country except Belgium … and I don’t hear anyone complaining about Belgium, just Sweden, which still has a very low overall death rate, not the 4% of the population we were told this would kill.
A final important note is that novel corona kills 99% over 60 with immune compromising diseases. Sweden reported most deaths were in nursing homes and spread by nurses. This is what pushed their decision to try for herd immunity instead of economic lockdown.
Belgium claims that the way they are recording deaths captures more of the excess mortality missed in other places. There are important differences and issues with regard to mortality stats. The Swedes acknowledge that they did a poor job protecting the elderly and the vulnerable, but applies almost universally.
Receiving the praise of WHO is far from something to be proud of!
Never a clearer argument for universal healthcare. Employer based healthcare is archaic, barbaric, and asinine.
Economic devastation will result in deaths that won’t be directly attributable to the measures taken to fight the virus. How about using “Jobs lost per death” statistics when analyzing effectiveness of intervention. Those who are well off, who don’t have finances on their mind seem to favor life and defend quarantines. Those to whom unemployment means death see them as representatives of the elite dictating everyone how to save lives that matter the most to them – their own at the expense of every person now unemployed.
I guess now they know how the immigrants feel.
I suppose you are referring to those who have entered the country illegally who used to be referred to as illegal immigrants.
It is indeed a difficult choice between death and economic catstrophe for any country. The population, density of population, hospitalisation capacity etc. will likely decide the course. The bigger issue is the media hype. The whole atmosphere of fear (and stay home stay safe message) that has been created is what has wrought extensive economic damage and atmosphere of pervasive fear. If the message had been that this is contagious like chicken (where we also quarantine for 14 days), more than flu etc. with statistics, it is likely that people would have a reference with which they are familiar and thus the negative atmosphere of fear would have been avoided and the economic damage would have been reduced.
All countries should have closed their airports in January 2020 when China started closing its cities (no point in closing only flights from China as the passenger can fly from elsewhere). This way only airlines would have gone bust but the hospitality industry as a whole could have been saved as they could get national tourists.
It’s not between death and economic catastrophe. Economic catastrophe is deaths. The number of people who will die from this lock down outnumbers the lives saved (how many is that, anyways) by thousands of times. Just the people who will lose healthcare coverage will mean far more unnecessary deaths than the any possible number of lives saved by staggering ventilator use. (<10%, in life years much lower since most have far few life years left anyways). How about the hundreds of millions of food insecure people globally for who food will soon be out of reach with price rises (judging what happend the last two global recessions).
Mish of all people should be emphasizing that this is about the seen and the unseen. The seen is expensive medical last rites for people we failed to protect and who have months to a few years of life expectancy. The unseen damages are immense and will accumulate over decades. In the end, everybody will be exposed to this virus, and no, a vaccine is very unlikely to provide an escape route.
Off topic.
Buffet dumping airlines, maybe more.
“This sucker could go down” – George W. Bush
Two important things:
Yeah, they dropped the ball on that one but that doesn’t necessarily mean their general approach is wrong, because:
WebMD is a reasonably reliable source of news, at least. There seems to be no doubt that Somalis have a much higher death rate even if one is suspicious of the exact numbers and reasons given in the second link. The gist of which is that Somalis aren’t doing anything resembling quarantine if they’re sick. Unfortunately, the second article doesn’t say a thing about which Somalis are dying. The old and sick? The young and healthy?
The average fatality in Italy was 80 years old with four pre-existing conditions. It’s callous to say it, but you’re getting your ticket punched even by a Taco Bell burrito when you fall into that category.
So…. if you ignore the nursing home deaths (yeah, it would have been a good idea to have had an iron curtain quarantine around those from day one but that’s sort of a different issue than the general Sweden approach), and the number of Somali deaths, then it seems Sweden isn’t doing too bad at all….
I see only two outcomes:
Even if covid were wiped out in Europe and the US today it would still be introduced time and time again from the rest of the planet until either of the two outcomes happen. You just can’t shut down the country forever…..
People with dark eyes/complexions need more sun to generate the same amount of Vitamin D. Moving from Somalia to Sweden doesn’t help.
Yes, this is still more evidence that points towards a higher immunity for Scandanavians than other race. Their death rate seems to be much, much lower than it is for any other race.
The failure to protect people in nursing homes, assisted care, etc., applies pretty much across the board. This gives the lie to all the people ranting about saving lives, and how concerned we are about human life. We should have protected and quarantined the risk groups (>98% of the pool of people hitting the ICU) instead of putting the entire population in the safe house. All those nursing homes should have been sealed in February, with 50K or 100K bonuses for the care-takers shut in. The rest of society should have been free to go about life. After about 2 months the quarantine of the vulnerable could have been lifted.
There are also better prophylaxis and treatment therapies, but they are not being used because Medicine is fixated on high-tech and expensive pharma solutions. Evidence-based usually means sponsored by institutions and Pharma.
“Manhattan’s population density is 66,940 people per square mile (25,846/km²), highest of any county in the United States”
Social distancing is meaningless in places like Manhattan. How does living in a huge apartment building keep you from catching the virus if someone else in the building has it?
If people in New York City want to practice social distancing, they ought to just move out of that place. Had they gone when it was still easy, they might have gotten a free or cheap motel/hotel room.
Another issue is shared ventilation. If you are in an apartment or nursing home and everyone is breathing the same air (not to mention touching the same surfaces), then transmission is simply more likely. As a US resident, I can ASSURE other readers that a comprehensive and practical understanding of transmission is NOT our strong suit.
” But pressure points seem to be outdoor activity in more crowded spaces, and small-to-medium-sized social gatherings.”
… like Statehouses crammed full of fat guys with rifles.
…like warehouse clubs and grocery stores crammed full of fat, unhealthy people stocking up on processed foods and soft drinks since at least late February. If there were going to be a major outbreak across all 50 states, it seems to me we would have seen it by now. I get the sense that disappoints people like Mish and you.
The death rate in all of the Scandanavian countries has been curiously low. Compare Sweden with Brazil, which followed similar policies, and according to news reports, is now digging mass graves as fast as they can. Why the differences? Why can Sweden only have 256 deaths/million, while UK, France, and Spain have twice that number, and San Marino has nearly 10x the number? The more you look at the data, the more you realize that you don’t understand.
Brazil is a third-world country.
Maybe, it has something to do with how different cultures socialize, and take guidelines seriously, official or otherwise. Multi-culturalism matters, it usually ends up with the lowest common denominator.
“…Maybe, it has something to do with how different cultures socialize…”
I remember taking Spanish at a community college a few years ago. The teacher, a very outgoing lady from Peru, said that people were very sociable in her country and it was unthinkable not to have a birthday party with guests. She frequently put her hands on (mostly adult) students which, fortunately, no one objected to.
I believe this is true of most Latin cultures.
But, Covid19 is contagious that everyone is contracting it in Sweden, so that shouldn’t matter. Now, perhaps if they have closer contact in Brazil, the infected people there start out with higher viral loads? Higher initial viral loads are likely to lead to more severe outcomes, so that could be an explanation.
But, if you don’t like comparing Sweden to Brazil, compare it to Italy or France. Why is the death rate so much higher in Italy and France? And why is it death so low in places like Iceland and Faroe Islands. I have no answers, only questions.
“Covid19 is contagious that everyone is contracting it in Sweden, so that shouldn’t matter.”
According to@astroboy in a reply above, “40% of deaths in Stockholm, and perhaps 18% of deaths in the entire country, are Somalis, who make up .69% of the population.”
But as far as why Italy and France are higher, like you, I have no answers, only questions. I suspect there is a lot of lying about death causes.
Mish believes that countries like Sweden that haven’t shut down might be trying to cover their asses by under-reporting covid deaths. Maybe so. But I also suspect that government officials everywhere, (including US), who have shut down their economies are also covering their asses by OVER-reporting covid deaths. There is plenty of evidence of it.
And, as more governments have shut down than kept things open, it seems probable to me that more covid deaths are over-reported than under-reported.
I don’t think there is, in most cases, lying about deaths. I think there are inherent problems that prevent accuracy. Most of those factors lead to undercounting. For the flu, they take the recorded flu deaths and multiply them by 3-6 times to offset the expected undercounts. So, say they they have 8,000 recorded flu deaths, they estimate that flu deaths were 24,000-48,000. I think the accuracy of the Covid count in higher, so there is no need to multiply it by a large factor to get the real deaths, but it is probably still going to be a bit low for the usual reason that you just don’t always know. Mish is probably right that for such an extreme event as Covid19, the best estimator is probably the overall excess mortality, and it tells us that in most cases Covid19 deaths are also low, which is what you would expect to find.
The key here is that we don’t need perfect accuracy. The differences are so extreme that they are easy to see. Why are there massive deaths in Italy and Spain, and few deaths in Iceland? Answer that, and maybe we can begin to understand Sweden.
Once this pandemic becomes old news, some small sliver of smart scientists will finally get around to studying the should-have-been-obvious links between a country’s DIET and their ability to defend themselves from this (and other) viruses. I am convinced that there are many condiments and spices that our forefathers added to their foods not just for the “taste”, but because they knew the ingredients somehow helped kill the numerous bugs (incl. viruses) they ingested. I would love to see the final stats on places like Mexico and India, because they eat some very spicy and hot food, and the population densities can be too high for effective distancing.
The other countries will catch up to Sweden’s numbers, the quarantine just slows it down so the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed.
They pay the hospitals extra to put COVID 19 on the death certificates. We never did any random testing to figure out the percentage of the population infected, and then they quarantine everybody instead of just the sick people and bankrupt the masses. Okee dokey then, and Building 7 fell down all by itself because of a few office furniture fires.
“They”
The Illuminati?
The Lizard People?
The 1978 Harlem Globetrotters? (I always knew they were up to something. Especially Curley. That guy’s shifty as heck)