In the misguided belief that extension after extension increases the chance of remaining, the alleged “Stop No Deal” crowd actually increase the odds of No Deal.
I have made that case before, and Eurintelligence (a Remain supporter), laid out a point-by-point scenario this morning.
Long Delay Scenario
- European Council extends for three months;
- UK holds elections;
- Tories win with a small majority;
- Johnson brings back the bill but falls short of a majority after a rebellion among hard-line eurosceptics;
- the House of Commons has no majority this time for Letwin/Benn style wrecking tactics.
- UK crashes out without a deal on January 31.
Eurointeligence Comments
This is not a prediction, only one of many scenarios. But, from today’s perspective, it is more plausible than a second referendum or a customs union. We don’t think the opposition would help Johnson. After the next election, both Labour and the LibDems will compete for the pro-EU votes. The die-hard eurosceptics in the Tory party may feel less of a need to compromise if they believe their no-deal nirvana is possible.
We don’t think that Brussels has really thought this through. If the goal is to avoid a no-deal Brexit, Macron’s strategy is a more promising route: put pressure on UK MPs to pass the bill by keeping the extension short. A three-month extension would bring back the uncertainty.
Understanding the Setup
I agree on all but bullet point 3: “Tories win with a small majority.”
A “small” majority most likely but not necessarily results in Johnson’s deal.
It’s the large and especially moderate-sized wins that are the problems.
My Scenario
- Assume having won the election Johnson is at least somewhat ambivalent between No Deal and his deal.
- Assume a Tory majority of 20 or so, not counting DUP.
- Assume 15 of the Tories are still closet remainers, customs union backers, or No Deal advocates.
- Assume 30 ERG and Hard Brexit lovers still prefer No Deal.
If the Hard Brexit supporters hold support and DUP holds support, there is no majority for anything but No Deal.
This is not at all far-fetched.
Moreover, if Johnson was just faking wanting a deal to get re-elected, then even a small majority might suffice if the closet Remainers, customs union backers, and No Deal advocates are mostly outed from the Tory Party.
Thus, any Tory win is more likely than now to result in No Deal.
The hard-core No Deal advocates only went along with Johnson to ensure a “reasonable deal” they could live with.
If they get a chance, and any Tory win with the right conditions (and there are numerous right conditions) may result in No Deal.
Heads Johnson Wins, Tails Johnson Wins
Two days ago, I commented Brexit Coin Toss: Heads Johnson Wins, Tails Johnson Wins
Flip a Coin
Remainers have a choice. They can force elections and lose or they can pass the Johnson’s deal and lose.
There is no majority for another referendum.
No Deal Liars Exposed
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1187316428208295936
Johnson’s Offer
Yes, and the fools still would not agree.
I suspect that offer will now be withdrawn! https://t.co/Rsr4qcGy1K
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) October 23, 2019
Expect Johnson to Withdraw Offer
Johnson offered an amendment that would have guaranteed not “crashing out” with a WTO agreement a year from now.
That still was not enough for the “Stop No Deal” liars.
In the event of election or even a short extension request, Johnson can safely withdraw that offer because the clock has nearly run out.
Likely Outcome
Eurointelligence commented “The two most likely scenarios are that Johnson pulls the bill and goes for early elections, or a short extension to allow passage of the bill under a more relaxed timetable”
I agree, while pointing out this Eurointelligence view, also the same as mine, and as described above: “We argue that the risk of a no-deal Brexit would increase with a three-month extension“
In regards to that position, it’s not just a small Tory victory that increases the chances of No Deal, but rather any Tory victory.
Playing With Fire
If needed to win, Johnson can easily change his mind and court the Brexit Party while the Liberal Democrats and Labour remain seriously split.
The polls indicate a victory outright, without such a deal.
Stop No Deal Makeup
- Most of the “Stop No Deal” crowd are nothing but liars who want to outright remain.
- The rest are simply fools.
Johnson offered a guaranteed way to prevent No Deal!
The alleged “Stop No Deal” crowd refused the offer, even with an amendment that would prevent a WTO settlement.
Both groups are seriously playing with fire. Their antics dramatically increase the odds of No Deal.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Well, Reuters is reporting that BJ is demanding now a December 12 GE. Seems he has the remainers right where he wants them, they would not approve a timetable to accommodate a Halloween Brexit so instead they can run against him and the conservatives in a GE. He is counting on the public to see this as a proxy for a second referendum and I think the frustration level is there for a win. I think the remainers are going to be shocked just as they were in 2016 when the votes are counted, IF this goes forward. Those sneaky slimy remainers are bound to attempt to make the December 12 vote December 12, 2037.
It would be a lot riskier, but if BoJo resigns claiming it is no longer possible to get a Brexit deal from the current parliament, would that force the divided left to appoint a caretaker till elections can be arranged, a caretaker the population does not want?
I mean, Johnson has called/been calling for elections all along knowing that the left will not approve of one because they would lose, now that he got a deal and the split left has once again frustrated the deal the public will rightly blame them. Their position is even worse than last time they refused a new parliament. But, his resignation while forcing the left off it’s position would also make it a murky situation since there is no clear line of succession in the non constitution.
Anyone other than Avid want to address this question?
With the present polling, Parliament isn’t going to approve new elections under any circumstances, so Johnson’s call today is just pro forma positioning for the decisions that are coming up in the next 7 days.
“Dead in a ditch” is the only thing that matters that has been said about Brexit in the last 4 months. Johnson is going to get this deal passed or he is going to take the bullet and decline the extension. The ball, of course, is then in the hands of Remain/EU. The EU could very easily just ignore its own laws and grant the extension over Johnson’s refusal of acceptance (Johnson can’t control that), and/or the Remainers could remove him and put in a caretaker government. In any case, Johnson adheres to his promise, and runs when the elections are inevitably called.
Again, technically all he said was that he’d rather be dead in a ditch than ask for an extension and he didn’t ask for it, Parliament did.
Just a quibble, I know, and probably of no practical importance, but it is accurate.
Also, I suspect he might – along with your posts above – actually do something next week to block things, like a Court Challenge. And the fact that the request didn’t come from the Prime Minister who is charged with negotiating treaties whereas Parliament is not – as JRM mentioned today during questions – is legally significant. He didn’t just do it out of spite or sulk as the press keep repeating.
Also, both Benn and Letlose offered unlawful procedures which in theory can be annulled and so ruled to have never occurred, in which case – after October 31st – UK is out since no request for an extension ever took place. What’s the chance of the SC rendering a correct and just version like that? Less than 10%. But it will make it that much easier to annual their SC after the election!
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
I think Johnson is going to decline any extension that goes beyond 10 days, and might even decline that at this point. Parliament has made it abundantly clear that all they will do is continue to delay even if the extension is 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, or 3 years- the amount of the extension is irrelevant since the outcome will always be the same thing- asking for another extension.
If Johnson doesn’t accept the extension, then legally the UK is out on the 31st, and I think Johnson will wait until the last second to decline the extension offer. It is either that, or Parliament gets on with finalizing the WA.
The Benn Act is quite specific that Johnson must accept and extension to 31st Jan immediately the offer is made. Any other date must be accepted within 2 days (or before 11pm on 31st October) unless Parliament votes to decline it.
No option for Boris to decline an extension himself …… unless…..
Boris making statement to Parliament about 6pm Thursday.
No, he doesn’t have to accept the offer. That is the point- it doesn’t matter what the Benn Act says has to happen- it only matters that the Benn Bill explicitly states that the PM is the one who has to accept it. Johnson can just defy the Act itself as illegitimate, and I don’t see a recourse other than a VoNC or a court challenge.
Another rumour emergency EU Summit next Monday to try and finalise extension offer.
«Edit function now works as expected, in contrast to earlier experiences.»
No fan of Brexit, but I agree completely with Mish’s position and its logic … a long extension enhances the chances of no-Deal Brexit, and everything the Remain crowd undertakes to amend the bills or delay the current deal, increases the odds of a no-Deal Brexit. I have often witnessed events in organizations where the ultimate outcome is one that few wanted, but by refusing to compromise and acquiesce to modest success, they guaranteed complete failure instead.
With a no-deal Brexit there will be a hard Irish border. The reunification question will play up, as will Scottish independance. Seeing how utterly divided and polarized the UK has become, I will stick with my prediction that the UK will suffer devolution sooner than the hated EU.
“With a no-deal Brexit there will be a hard Irish border.”
Who is going to put this “hard border” in?
Brexit fatigue is by design. All important questions are decided by violence. No violence, no Brexit.
Johnson will campaign with his deal. In my view, if he wins a majority, it will be passed easily and he will present it as a glorious achievement. He didn’t unite his party behind the deal to let it fall apart again.
If the EU wants this deal, then they will give an extension that is long enough for a general election. If they want even more concessions from the next UK government, then they will give an extension that is too short for a general election.
“if he wins a majority”
Perhaps he is a remainer and doesnt want a majority? If he campaigns on that deal now, he will split the Brexit vote and most likely lose. He said that he would die in a ditch, and hasnt done. I dont trust him to deliver.
If he were a sleeping remainer, then his actions so far would be little different to what he has actually done.
I think he can win with his deal if the election happens soon enough. The Remain vote is divided even more. But I don’t expect the EU to allow this.
Reading the above, it seems that everyone is catching on to my point of view.
Negotiating with the EU is for saps, they are simply playing for time.
MPs have exposed themselves as working against the interests of the people. I suspect that many MPs are either being bribed or blackmailed by groups unseen for their votes, it is difficult to explain things in any other way.
It annoys me too when MPs are able to say that leaving the EU without a deal will be a disaster for the UK. The opposite is true for the following reasons.
On the negative sides, the paperwork for trade will be a little different, but we will soon get used to it.
It is a shame that the good Brexit MPs dont challenge the point about Hard Brexit being bad for the British economy. The only fig leaf of justification for the shenanigans is the argument that Hard Brexit will be bad for us. Take that away, and it should be taken away, then there is no excuse at all.
Sad to say I feel more pessimistic about things now. Our only way out is if Macron pushes us out. I suspect that Johnson is trying to position the Tory party somehow so that he splits the Brexit vote. The leave vote should really all go to the Brexit party, they would get us out. I doubt that the Tories will.
And why do I doubt Johnson? He could have delivered Brexit by not sending that letter, then it would be all over. I very much suspect that the reason they didnt challenge the Queen’s assent decision was because they feared that they might have won. Watch what they do and pay no notice to what they say.
The only good thing that has come out of all of this is that at least we can clearly see how MPs are ruling us, and are not beholden to us the people. I dont know what we can do about it, but at least we know.
Part of the reason I don’t trust the Tories and Johnson, admirable though many of them are on occasion, is their refusal to argue against No Deal convincingly, along with their refusal to challenge the Benn and Letlose fiascos. They must have considered all this and decided against it. Why? I can’t come up with any good answers except one:
they are playing this out until the other side has run out of time and options to torpedo it. But that is increasingly looking like magical thinking.
“But if there is a short extension, the Wrecking Amendments will pile on thick and fast and meanwhile any chance for an election before December is taken out of the equation.”
If the extension is for the sole purpose of ratifying Johnson’s deal, there can be no wrecking amendments.
Johnson will pull the legislation and No Deal results. France can easily force this deal through if it wants.
Nearly guaranteed.
They could still vote out Johnson and replace him with a caretaker.
But let’s do the Math. Late Friday, the EU offers a short 2-week extension for the sole purpose of ratifying this deal and no other.
Parliament meets Monday. They announce a motion of No Confidence.
They vote Johnson out on Tuesday October 29
They agree on an alternate PM. Let’s assume that happens the same day, if not they are already screwed.
Johnson refuses to stand down. There is no time for emergency legislation.
Unless the courts can force Johnson out in 2 days flat.
I do not believe they can act that fast but even if they could, would parliament risk No deal on that bet?
Hard Brexit
Every day is critical here. I suspect France understands this: It may very well be impossible to wreck a binary option presented on the 28th, and it is certainly impossible on the 29th.
France can easily help Johnson here. All it has to do is say approve this deal or there is no deal.
Of course, Lords could call that bluff and amend. But would it? Heck, it might be pleased just to have a deal and be done with it.
I suggest they would not touch it. After all Johnson would still be PM for 14 days if he refused to stand down.
Moreover, if Johnson won the election he would simply revise the amendments away!
So, one way or another Johnson wins (assuming he wins an election)
So, yes, France can easily force this deal through. 10 days seems perfect. 14 days or longer may pose problems, but only if Parliament can agree on a caretaker.
Johnson should seek a 10-Day approval extension.
“Johnson refuses to stand down.”
What you have described here is a constitutional crisis of first order. Just for the purpose of a no deal Brexit. Several members of his own government and a large chunk of Tory MPs would excommunicate Johnson on the spot.
If this would be feasible, he could have done it already. He said he would die in a ditch before asking for an extension. Yet we are not talking about his death, not even about the lost vote of confidence. We are talking about extensions…
For the record, he said he would ‘rather die in a ditch than ask for an extension.”
And sure enough, he did not ask for an extension, Parliament did and he has made that clear in subsequent statements and his letter to the EU.
He has lost tactically, it seems – at least in terms of Oct 31st – but with honour intact: nobody can accuse him of not trying. Exactly what he wants is hard to say, but frankly such inscrutability is the mark of a good leader.
I am still hopeful,
“Unless the courts can force Johnson out in 2 days flat.”
The Courts cannot force Johnson out; the Queen would have to dismiss him.
“What is the earliest date the UK can have a GE?”
There is no set answer to this as the electoral law can change. Thus, the correct answer is the minimum amount of time it would take to change election law.
Assuming that does not happen, we need to deal with the fact that elections are generally, but not necessarily on Thursday.
There are procedures discussing this and I commented on them in detail before.
The short answer, assuming the law does not change, is the answer changes by one day, every working day.
I trust AvidRemainer will correct anything I have wrong, but I bet he forgot about changing election law.
They will not be voting to change election law… Too many MP will be voted out including ex-Tories…
Certainly agree. I am just being as picky with AvidRemainer as he is with the rest of us. I expect him to embrace my nit-pickiness.
Essentially you are right. the general rule is 5 weeks after parliament is dissolved. December 12th is the last date possible this year. If the liar fails at this attempt then you are looking at mid-February 2020 unless there are exceptional circumstances. December 12th is vey iffy for practical reasons. Scotland only has 6hrs daylight and it does tend to snow a lot. December weather in the UK is volatile to say the least. Last year it was 20 C for a week in February.
You are forgetting about a short extension,
There can easily be an election in January.
Indeed I expect one no later than mid-jan
All France has to do is insist on a way forward
For reasons stated, I would not be surprised by Dec 12
No time for a mid-Jan election, as I said 5 weeks from the date of dissolution. I agree in extraordinary circumstances it could de mid Jan but that would be a sign of high crisis.
You enjoy the to and fro of argument. I accept that I am a nit-picker-civil service training.
“A more relaxed timetable” is just bullshit remainer speak for we know we cannot win but we can keep you from winning by extending forever. And investment in the UK will show the results of that uncertainty as the years drag on.
There is no need for a long debate over the relative merits of the WAB and it’s contents, that is all they have done for 3 years now, study and debate ever possible angle then the remainers fret and say what MIGHT happen and how it might not be ideal compared to just remaining. Of course loss of sovereignty is meaningless to them, they don’t understand the concept. They are socialist brainwashed morons. There is nothing in the WAB that needs discussion, they have discussed it to death for years. It is essentially May’s deal and any differences were discussed and studied before May presented her agreement. Extensions are nothing but a lie by the remainers. Hijacking government, exploiting the lack of a written constitution and a newly self appointed powerful judiciary that is one of the most patently biased on the planet. When this is over the UK should be shut out of all international talks, contracts, and negotiations till they write a freaking constitution once and for all because you can’t deal with their wishy washy brand of bullshit that cannot be predicted or trusted.
REMAINER SPEAK FOR
*CANNOT
Got going too fast, and the edit function is broken again.
“Tell me what is the earliest date that the EU institutions can ratify the treaty?”
Assuming they adhere to protocol, I believe there is no set answer. Rather it is either the same day or one day after the UK clears the WA with no amendments that the EU disagrees with.
I seem to remember reading that they have scheduled conference dates, like one is shortly before Oct 31, then there is mid-November and late November or somesuch. I suppose in theory they can summon emergency meeting, but why should they? If something is passed in UK, that’s pretty much that. Then next time they get together, they ratify.
The chances of the deal going through in this Parliament, though, as we all know, are extremely low. Exhibit A: Benn Act. Exhibit B: Letwin Amendment. Exhibit C: statements by the Deputy Leader of HM Opposition today that No Deal is not off the table even with an extension because it could still come into play after one year’s of negotiations.
Somehow, an election has to be forced or the Benn Act and Litwin Amendments have to be struck down in Court as unlawful, which they clearly are.
Side Bet: What happens first, Fed stops overnight repo injections or Brexit?
What odds are you offering?
Now, I’m the oxygen thief here. I’m the useless ex civil servant parasite. I ask two questions the answers to which should inform your deliberations and none of you seem to know. Earliest date for an election is 5th December. I’ll leave you to research how long it will take the EU to ratify the treaty.
What is the earliest date the UK can have aGE?
PS (can’t edit): my point about his having granted a way through also means that, since they rejected his Offer, which was entirely reasonable and honourable and playing by the rules, that he is no longer obliged to keep treating them so kindly and can now play hardball. As JRM would say: “Goose – Gander – Sauce!”
Why can’t Edit?
Comments are not editable. You can press the edit button and change the text, but once you post your changes, nothing happens. This bug has existed for several months. (Edited: I guess it works now – first time!)
Yes, same with me. I have not been able to edit posts for at least a few weeks—you make the edits but the post never changes.
I edited one reply of mine and after pressing the ‘submit’ button, it disappeared completely. Didn’t write it again since it was rather lengthy to write.
I concur with all the above!
Tell me what is the earliest date that the EU institutions can ratify the treaty?
They never will. According to the Ancient Laws of Natural Justice, if you want Sovereignty, you have to Claim it, not wait for it to be granted. The UK have gone about this the wrong way from the get-go. Really, all they need is a Declaration of Independence, really, and then the free trade negotiations could proceed without all this ridiculosity. But of course: have to get it through Parliament first, since the People foolishly gave them those Powers, and so….
I actually agree with you so there’s a first. I’ve always wondered why brexiteers wanted/want an FTA when surely to diverge from the current treaties is what they want. What is the point of an anti FTA FTA?
What you write is very reasonable. But I just can’t see it happening. I do think you are right in one major regard: Johnson presented both UK and EU with a workable way to make it through within the deadline. But if there is a short extension, the Wrecking Amendments will pile on thick and fast and meanwhile any chance for an election before December is taken out of the equation.
A longer extension: no way Labour will let an election happen. Hope am wrong, but thus far all this Parliament can do is say ‘No’ and that will continue since they know they’ll be kicked out – a high percentage – in any election.
I think Johnson’s only hope is a Court challenge against the legality of the Benn Act and the Letwin amendments and getting them annulled. Also, he can refuse any offer of an extension to bring on a challenge and then counterclaim.
In short: there is NOTHING satisfactory that can be worked out with this entirely disgraceful, unethical, unlaw-abiding Parliament, including tossers like the Venerable Father of the House and other ghastly die-hards in the Tory benches, and all those who ran on a respect-the-referendum election platform and then have been betraying that commitment every step of the way. Since he can’t work with them, he has to work around them.
If he DOES get a short extension, he can use it to mount Court Cases to annul the Benn Act and Letwin amendments and run out the clock that way. As long as there is a clause that states that there will be no more extensions granted under any circumstances.
If Macron has any support for his position he will likely carry the day. If not, he will likely, but not necessarily back down.
Just my guess, and I expect but don’t know, the guess of Eurointelligence. They did not comment.
Brexit this year if extension offer is 2 weeks or less.
I agree. For some reason, I have the idea of three weeks, as a gesture to the complexity of the agreement.
I guess we’ll find out before the weekend. Cheers, Mish.
Shame we can’t hold elections the 5th of November. Wait. I’m American, and our election is the 5th of November. Brits take notice.
I believe Macron understands this.
Yet, perhaps even if he does, he goes along with Tusk
The EU works on consensus
But if Macron can get one or two more nations to agree, he will win.
I do not know how to access the odds other than to suggest they are above 25%, a decent chance at minimum and perhaps way higher. I was not in the room.
The French are still pissed at the English for Oran in WW2 … the question is, “Which is the worse punishment: Keeping the UK in the EU, or tossing it out?”
Everyone is so sick of it, so fed up with this charade, it needs to end.
3 years of this wasn’t enough time, do you honestly think 3 months will make a difference? Of course not. It’s like Mish says, the remainers and the EU want to reverse the vote. So it can only be either a No Deal, or elections. An extension will lead to more of this…meanwhile the economies of the UK and Ireland are already suffering because of it. And those politicians, that parliament, those EU officials won’t be held accountable for that which is the greatest insult of it all.
I’m not sick of it.
I know, dude. You’re loving every second of it!
We know, you do not care who you are hurting. You have no morals.
There is a lot more to come.
the EU wants nothing than a deal. It’s your stupid democratically elected MPs who block everything……