The BLS says Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover are little changed but a downtrend, albeit from elevated levels seems in play.
Job Openings
On the last business day of August, the job openings level was little changed at 7.1 million. The job openings rate was 4.4 percent. The number of job openings was little changed for total private and for government. The job openings level decreased in nondurable goods manufacturing (-49,000) and ininformation (-47,000). The number of job openings decreased in the Midwest region.
Hires
The number of hires edged down to 5.8 million (-199,000) in August. The hires rate was 3.8 percent. The number of hires edged down for total private (-219,000) and was little changed for government. The hires level increased in federal government (+35,000). The number of hires decreased in the South region.
Separations
Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
The number of total separations was little changed at 5.6 million in August. The total separations rate was 3.7 percent. The number of total separations was little changed for total private and for government. The total separations level was little changed in all industries. The number of total separations decreased in the Midwest region.
The number of quits decreased in August to 3.5 million (-142,000). The quits rate was 2.3 percent. The quits level decreased for total private (-144,000) and was little changed for government. Quits decreased in professional and business services (-76,000) and in other services (-67,000). The number of quits decreased in the Midwest region.
Openings, Hires, Separations
The above charts from the BLS.
If you only show recent history the decline looks worse than it is (certainly not the BLS’ intent).
U.S. Job Openings Unexpectedly Fall to Lowest Since March 2018
Bloomberg reports U.S. Job Openings Unexpectedly Fall to Lowest Since March 2018
Key Bloomberg Insights
- Openings have been on a downward trend from the record 7.63 million in November, and the latest figures are another sign of labor market cooling. Companies have eased hiring this year amid struggles to find qualified workers and a dimming economic outlook.
- Total vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by more than 1 million.
- Labor Department figures released Friday showed employers added 136,000 jobs in September, while average hourly earnings saw the weakest annual gain in more than a year. Still, the unemployment rate declined to a half-century low of 3.5%.
Econoday Comments
Bloomberg Econoday posted these highlights
- Job openings remain plentiful but nevertheless continue to shrink. Openings came in at 7.051 million in August, down 1.7 percent from July for the third monthly decline in a row. Year-on-year, openings are down 4.0 percent which is the lowest reading since February 2010.
- Hires are also falling, down 3.3 percent in the month to 5.779 million with this year-on-year rate at minus 0.8 percent. Quits also came down in August, to 3.526 million for a 3.9 percent monthly decline with the quits rate, which is a reading Federal Reserve officials watch as an indication of worker confidence and worker mobility, down 1 tenth to 2.3 percent.
- This report is not pointing to increasing capacity stress in the labor market and will offer doves at the Federal Reserve arguments that interest rates can continue to come down without risking an unwanted spike in wage pressures.
Phillips Curve Silliness
Point number 3 above appears to be in reference to the Phillips Curve, totally discredited nonsense, yet something the Fed pays attention to.
Ironically, two Fed studies concludes the Phillip Curve is Nonsense.
Despite the historic surge in job openings, wage inflation, especially in real terms, has been anemic.
Start of a Trend?
It’s difficult to say if this is the start of a trend, but it feels like it.
Job openings fell in nondurable goods mfg (-49,000) & IT (-47,000). Quits fell for total private (-144,000) specifically in professional and business services (-76,000) & other services (-67,000). Midwest Quits & job openings fell. THE INDUSTRIAL RECESSION HAS SPREAD TO SERVICES.
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) October 9, 2019
Also, one has to wonder how many of those openings are real in the first place as opposed to companies inflation numbers hoping for more Visa entrants.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Mish, funny enough was talking to a very good friend in IB yesterday, asking how things were, he’s top dog (MD) and we were comparing notes with a lawyer (head of corp finance) as to the level of work. My IB friend was saying that business is way off, lawyer friend is up to his eyeballs in work.
The IB guy was very philosophical about all this — we’ve got a slow down coming along you sees it in the appetite for deals in the boardrooms. This IB guy is a real rainmaker, serious stuff (yet also the nicest guy…) real old style with amazing relationships, he’s often the first call when the appetite for new deals appear, and yet he’s saying there’s not much hunger for deals.
BTW his take on WeWork was that like Softbank it was always full of hot air, and that the IPO prospectus was “garbage” and “some of the worse he’s ever seen” in a 20 year career! That’s saying something
Anyway, I think there’s something real this time (of course its not the first time I’ve said that…)
They can’t come up with an accurate figure. The Labor Department uses formulas that are mostly based on guesses and estimates. Nobody actually goes out and counts ‘jobs’. These numbers are merely guesses. But the government has to come up with something every month to justify their jobs.
“Tightening labor market” == companies increasingly see no upside to spending more for the labor they already have or on the résumés they get == “productivity growth” is baloney, overall there is none.
Yup. It was another debt fueled boom. The last productive growth cycle was in the mid 1990s.
Panera is losing nearly 100% of its workers every year as fast-food turnover crisis worsens link to cnbc.com
Turnover has always been high at these type of places. About the same rate at long haul trucking companies to. Nothing new here.
It costs money to interview and screen applicants — and if one knows in advance that 99% of the applicants are not qualified, the cost of finding that other 1% starts to overwhelm the benefits.
Plus, how does the employer know that Congress won’t change labor laws, and increase costs further?
There is a HUGE cost, intangible though it might be, to having a bunch of socialists running the House of non-Representatives
I would wager the recent fervent discussions that healthcare ought to be socialized has persuaded very intelligent souls to pursue fields more guaranteed to be lucrative, like finance, instead of medicine. Society’s loss.
After seeing how school administrators make six figures to screw over students and bad teachers are protected by corrupt union officials — while good teachers get barely living wages…
its hard to imagine any competent doctor wanting to work for government run health care
Then again, the socialists aren’t worried about how the population lives, so long as they live a privileged existence. Life is good working in the Kremlin, Beijing or as Chavez/Maduro’s staff — but its miserable for everyone else
countries that have socialized medicine have MUCH lower administrative/ finance overhead because there’s less profit to be made. So the opposite of what you think is true
All these numbers have been gamed in so many ways in so many countries that historical or international comparisons provide very little information. A much more interesting statistic is what proportion of all men/women 25-55 work full time. Even better would be if you could include just the jobs that allow you to support dependants (“bread winners”).
Yes. They have been ‘gamed’. You are exactly right.
“… but the number of openings is still historically elevated.”
Just means the fall could have a long way to go.
Jobs are overrated.
US will day trade its way to prosperity.
I thought everyone was going to get rich buying and selling second-hand crap to one another.
Takes too much effort. Much easier, in fully financialized dystopias, to just sit on the couch. While ones house decays and falls down around one. Yet somehow, by way of the infinite wisdom and magic of Five Year Planners at The Fed and zoning boards, get more and more valuable as it decays.
Not to mention gotta keep those fabulous property taxes rolling in. At one time I thought having a paid off house would be great now its like im renting instead of owning. This crap has to stop.
Actually I did make a lot doing that, before it became mainstream. No means rich lol but it was easy to make a low level job income. Not to mention fun.
Or just buy and hold a target date fund. That’ll work, for everybody, forever.
It’s my understanding that 125,000-150,000 new jobs must be created every month just to keep up with population growth. In addition, there’s still about 100 million workers who have stopped looking for work. I think the numbers are dismal, have been dismal, and are in keeping with the global slowdown.
Many have stopped looking for work, but 100 million seems way too high to me. That would be about half of the working age population.
mfg cant get enough workers around kansas city. Of course, not everyone is cut out for grease and crap wages.
The number use to be 125,000 to 150,000 jobs each month. Now with the retirement of the baby boomers and other factors the number needed is closer to 100,000 per month.
I’m not sure how they can come up with an accurate figure. Companies can post openings for free on-line and they usually don’t take them down when filled or the opening is no longer available. I’ve worked for companies that always advertised openings so they could collect resumes for when they had an opening.
Not to mention spying.
What company wouldn’t love to have HR ask plenty of questions to someone working in the field / competitor … even though no job offer ever intended?
Back when I was in the position of hiring, companies had to register job openings with the state department of labor. At least one reason was that the labor department would know the job that was open so if you were unemployed and went to them to find a job they would know what was available. They would refer you and you could apply. I did that a couple of times to. I don’t think the numbers are as iffy as they might look.