August was a bad month for job seekers. Here are the grim details. 
Initial Jobs Report Thoughts
All year, I kept asking “Does anyone believe these reports?”
In July the BLS said oops. Employment in May and June was a combined 258,000 lower than previously reported (now revised lower again).
In August, the BLS said oops again. The BLS now reports negative job growth for June.
Manufacturing shed another 12,000 jobs. Down 78,000 from a year ago.
2025 Synopsis
- Since January 2025, Employment (Household Survey) is -501,000.
- Since January 2025, Nonfarm Payrolls (Establishment Survey) is +487,000.
- Since January 2025, Fulltime Employment (Household Survey) is -1,416,000
Monthly Job Report Details
- Nonfarm Payroll: +22,000 to 159,540,000 – Establishment Survey
- Civilian Non-institutional Population: +216,000 to 274,001,000
- Civilian Labor Force: 436,000 to 170,778,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate: +0.1 to 62.3% – Household Survey
- Employment:+288,000 to 163,394,000 – Household Survey
- Unemployment: +148,000 to 7,384,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 4.3% – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force: -220,000 to 103,443,000 – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment: +0.2 to 8.1% – Household Survey
Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector
There were 9 declining sectors in August with only 5 increasing.
Manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, and professional services were disasters.
Manufacturing was hardly unexpected given declining backlog of orders in the ISM reports.
Health Services, and Leisure and Hospitality were the bright spots.
Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Expect negative benchmark revisions for November 2024 through April 2025.
This data will be available on September 9.
Monthly Revisions
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000.
- The change for July was revised up by 6,000, from +73,000 to +79,000.
- With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21,000 lower than previously reported.
Recall that last month the BLS revised June from +147,000 to +14,000. Now it’s -13,000.
Part-Time Jobs
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: +85,000 to 4,769,000
- Voluntary Part-Time Work:+528,000 to 23,298,000
- Total Full-Time Work: -357,000 to 134,480,000
- Total Part-Time Work: +597,000 to 29,034,000
- Multiple Job Holders: +443,000 to 8,785,000
The above numbers never total correctly due to the way the BLS makes seasonal adjustments. I list them as reported.
Note that multiple job holders add to nonfarm payrolls but not the number of employed.
Last month full time work dropped by 440,000. This month it’s another 357,000 decline. Wow.
Hours and Wages
This data is frequently revised.
- Average weekly hours of all private employees was flat (revised down by 0.1) at 34.2 hours.
- Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.2 hours.
- Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.2 hours to 40.0 hours.
An overall decline or rise of a tenth of an hour does not sound line much, but with employment over 160 million, it’s more significant than it appears at first glance.
In a falling employment setup, hours of the remaining employees tend to rise, at least initially.
Hourly Earnings
This data is also frequently revised. Here are the numbers as reported this month.
Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.10 to $36.53. A year ago the average wage was $35.23. That’s a gain of 3.7%.
Average hourly earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers rose $0.12 to $31.46. A year ago the average wage was $30.27. That’s a gain of 3.9%.
Unemployment Rate
Through July, the Unemployment Rate has been between 4.0 percent and 4.2 percent for 15 straight months.
That ended in August.
Do we credit Biden, Trump, the Fed, or the BLS?
Alternative Measures of Unemployment
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
- The official unemployment rate is 4.3 percent.
- U-6 is much higher at 8.1 percent.
Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. Some dropped out over Covid fears and never returned. Still others took advantage of a strong stock market and retired early.
The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement (need for Social Security income), and discouraged workers.
Birth Death Model
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report.
The birth-death model pertains to the birth and death of corporations not individuals except by implication.
For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.
Birth-Death Methodology Explained
I gave a detailed explanation of the model and why the usual calculation is wrong in my June 8, 2024 post How Much Did the BLS Birth-Death Adjustment Pad the May Jobs Report?
I repeat, do not subtract the birth-death number from the headline number.
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
- The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number. It is based on employer reporting.
- The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures employment, unemployment and other factors.
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Looking for job openings on Jooble or Monster or in the want ads does not count as “looking for a job”. You need an actual interview or send out a resume.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
The BLS payroll reports smack of oversampling large employers and undersampling small employers where jobs have been trending lower.
QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs
On June 16, I commented QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
The discrepancy between QCEW and the BLS jobs report is rising.
We will have a QCEW update next week to review. It will be for the first quarter of 2025.
Final Thoughts
Two months ago I said “The BLS monthly data is total garbage. I do the best I can with BLS data.”
Last month, I said the stench is so powerful that no one can pretend there is not a massive data collection, sampling problem at the BLS.
This month we see June jobs are -13,000 from an originally-reported +147,000.
If you are looking for a bright spot, Household Survey employment rose in August by a reported 288,000. Yeah, right.
Related Posts
September 4, 2025: Year-Over-Year Small Business Employment Growth Barely Above Zero
ADP reports the total YOY small business growth as +19,000.
The Unemployment Level Is Now Greater than Job Openings
On September 3, I noted The Unemployment Level Is Now Greater than Job Openings
For the first time since the pandemic unemployment is above openings.
The nonfarm payroll response rate is 42.6 percent with the same issues as with JOLTS
Expect more negative revisions. Recession anyone?
“June was revised down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000.”
Oh, no! The +14,000 number got the previous BLS chief fired. What will happen to the new chief who is now saying, “No, no, actually it is MINUS 13,000”?!
– For the first time since the pandemic unemployment is above openings.
> It would seem to me, that would be a reason to get a job, and fast, if you don’t already have one. Now is no longer time, to play “Career Musical Chairs” I know it’s the fastest way to a raise, but it can also hurt your career, if it becomes habitual. For a lot of people that was and is a potential reason for why they are still looking, I would guess, based upon the wide range of movement in many professions.
– Manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, and professional services were disasters. Health Services, and Leisure and Hospitality were the bright spots.
> One can make sense with most of this (Ex. as stated with ISM Reports), but I have a few other thoughts as well.
>> Have our “Colleges” and “Political Structure” hurt our next generations Workers (Most)? Many are driven by Greed. Is this due to the Cost? Due to what You must Pay Back (money you owe), and did not have to start paying until well after? graduation and/or 10 years? Or something like that. Been quite awhile since then. Not a lot of restrictions on spending, and no actual teachings of significance, to allow them not to get buried in debt before their third year in some cases.
>> Toss in Cultural Pressures, and Expected Norms as many had access to Funds, and therefore going out to eat, and at a nicer place than they used to, having fun in excess, and even buying new transportation and taking small 3-5 day trips abroad. It truly was “Party Time” for a lot of these kids. I have 2 very educated, and doing very well, but that was just before things blew up. One of them was a Boston Multi Ethnic Teacher and now is in a NH Multi Cultural atmosphere.
>>> The Pressure to Go to College became immense, and that fell on the “Entire Family” in some cases. Maybe the first of three could/would Go, but no more. Maybe none could afford it. “Federal” School Loans came along, and boy that changed everything now, didn’t it? Grandparent’s pressured to Co-Sign and they did. Mom and Dad (We Paid 2/3) keeping up with all the other Parents, also struggling, and likewise did. NOT blaming the Federal Loans for Education, but rather the way it was done. The firm (passable) education to be considered, with the plan, and expectations lined up with what they are taking for classes, and what their degree will be in. Is the degree in some cases, not worth the career path it represents, so your education for said job, outstrips your ability to pay for it. Debt slave (maybe join the service, or agree to many, many hours of community service etc. Yeah that was a good idea).
>>>> Nobody made Any of them sign off to do so, I get it, but that doesn’t always make it right, except in the laws eyes perhaps. Repercussions every once in awhile are nice to see as well. As many of these people are simply unemployable? Emotionally weak, insecure perhaps, or just couldn’t adjust to the expectations? Stress, Anxiety, and other ailments that further complicate things further. Much do to pressure, money, expectations, etc. and where many mature adults would find this challenging, the younger and buried are simply not ready in so many ways, it’s overwhelming, and a disaster awaits them.
Food for Thought so to speak…
No I do not believe in taxpayers paying for this, but I do think colleges could work out some sort of situation that helps this get fixed in some manner. Perhaps a rebate to students who overpaid for an education (based on data). Maybe a rebate to ALL students, from the Colleges Endowment Fund? Maybe Unions use some of there funds for rebates in Trade Degrees?
Which government employee/leader is about to be fired by Trump, for cause, for publishing this data?
Depends who Laura Loomer tweets about most and blames for causing this issue. Then the general MAGA crowd can know Trump fixed the issue for 30 days until the next report comes out.
Out of all the psychotic idiots that influence this administration, she wins queen of the freak show.
Why would trump fire anyone, he wants Interest rates at 0%, right ?
This works for his agenda(s).
It works for his agenda, but not his ego. Any numbers saying that the economy is declining are a no no, as L’Etat, c’est moi. He wants it both ways.
He is already in, and there is no where else to
put him, or his kind…
With good jobs hard to get, people will be moving back to the traditional employment centers like NYC, Boston, LA, SF, and Chicago. They have no choice as companies require return to office. Due to lower mortgage rates, home prices in suburbs of those job rich cities will rise while home prices everywhere else drops significantly. Since remote jobs are going extinct, the smart money is dumping that Nashville home now.
Solid wishful thinking right there. CA and IL are in a permanent state of decay. Nobody wants to live in either place, and people are voting with their feet.
They bought homes in low cost locations while keeping their CA job as a remote employee . They thought they were smart with this arbitrage situation. That arbitrage turned out to be a mirage and they are scrambling to return to the office in Chicago or LA or NYC or …. Employers had enough of remote and there are no other high paying positions available in places like Nashville or Idahoe or Montana ….
You should be made to drive 10 miles in LA or SF at 5 pm on a workday, and when you arrive 1 hour(!) later, asked the question whether you saw anyone voting with their feet during that time!
Doesn’t match the reality I’m seeing in the LA metro…where homes are sitting and sitting and price drops becoming more and more common. I think that even if your first prediction is correct, the massive price overhang of the covid housing market, coupled with unfavorable family formation/demographics are enough to make all places descend significantly, even IF the places “welcoming back” the good old work from homers.
I am in Orange County and the homes are moving in the coastal cities. Single family homes rentals are red hot. Some of this demand is from people displaced from the fires. Some is from people returning to the office.
The guy who lived behind me sold and moved to Nashville 3 years ago. Since remote work ended, he is now back in an OC rental. He can’t sell his Nashville home for the price he paid while the home he sold in Orange County has appreciated by 15% since 2022.
SF? LMAO….CA? ? I think CA has the most net migration out of the state than any state in the United States of America.
Are you counting the in migration of more illegals???
They were leaving because everyone thought they could keep their CA salary working remote in a low cost state. Remote work is going extinct and they are headed back.
Just use aggregate emp to pop for general trends. Overall, it’s too noisy an indicator – like the total stock market value…
Note, if you cut out Covid 2020-2021, nothing has really changed, except
a greater dependency on the Fed and Federal government, more emphasis on speculation over production, ever-greater competition from other countries,a vast increase in Fed debt.
Now, why do I point this out. The long term trend is crucial to understand what is really going on behind the ups and downs that everyone argues about. Cycles continue to go up and down; however, below the surface there are clear signs about what the future is likely to be.
This is NOT about Biden, or Trump, or the very hot Sydney. Think systemic change with minor ‘interruptus’ with a chaotic current environment–but it has been for some time.
We’re so screwed by our zionist overlords. The Congress and all Presidents since Roosevelt were/are traitors. They all swore to uphold the US Constitution yet they violate(d) it everyday: Article 1, Section 10
We screwed ourselves. We elected those who promised the most and when they were unable to deliver success, they lied and created an appearance of success. Now reality is setting in and the quicksand is pulling us down and it’s too late to save ourselves and reanimate our economy and our society. The good old days are gone forever.
Don’t forget that NFP has an error of +/- 136,000.
We’re in for a long overdue reckoning. Electing a con man/felon/dementia patient was just speed running the collapse.
As i said before. The roads seem less busy. Restaurants and down town seem less busy. The amount of junk on the side of the road is up. Ill explain. It cost a good bit to throw away tires/ refrigerators etc /. Take your old boat out tie it to a tree and pull it off the trailer. Done. Its like a white trash way to stick it to the man.
Last time i noticed gut piles from missing. road kill
Even the coyotes are in recession.
As usual the month over month data is us not very useful, however the longer term trend seem clear, i.e. continued moderately weakening job market. With this, a rate cut this month seem all but certain, and Powell will likely get significant pressure for 0.5%. Will Trump say thank you for this rate cut, we need it; or will he say this employment data is total garbage because we are in a strong growing economy thanks to Trump policy?
The best is yet to come.
Fear not, those Big Beautiful Tariffs will soon come to the rescue. It will be amazing.
Appears the taco stagflation scenario is quickly becoming a reality. Not sure there is anyone left to fire to correct this increasingly challenging situation.
Well, at least Trump got these ‘good’ numbers now that he threw out that conniving, incompetent Democrat BLS commissioner and put in his own guy to ferret out the real stats.
Who will he blame next?
I’d like to toss my hat in the ring to explain this beyond tariffs, as something just happened in my general field that I think can help explain.
https://apnews.com/article/us-south-korea-ice-raid-georgia-hyundai-9394482c195664d7cc3db67ae998ac05
If you read the story at the link above, ICE just rounded up a bunch of Koreans on visa at the Hyundai plant in Georgia. This is one of Georgia’s biggest employers (of legal people).
As morons cheer for this, I’d like to break down what this means for businesses and why hiring is a dry husk now: Hyundai is basically a state enterprise in South Korea, they enjoy great terms there. They’ve invested tons into Georgia and until recently enjoyed its great logistical location, favorable trade conditions, and no unions. That’s over now. In GREAT AMERICA they now pay absurd taxes out the nose for every single component of the car, have the gestapo raid their plant, and their logistical line is now much more complicated.
Is Hyundai going to go all American and really throw their back into making America great again? Fuck no! They’re going home to South Korea to make their cars there, and taking the tens of billions of investment they brought to Georgia with them. Same deal for BMW, Toyota, and Volvo, also making cars in the southeast right now. They have zero reason to put up with these horrible conditions when they all have plants elsewhere that operations can be shifted to in a matter of months. And as an insider to at least one of the companies mentioned, I can assure you that’s the plan being discussed right now. In their eyes, the golden goose has stopped crapping eggs and at the very MINIMUM they’re not investing any further until things stabilize. That means no new jobs for you illiterate folks.
I can’t imagine any major employer who produces goods not following this general pattern. Healthcare is fine, but manufacturing has zero reason to make new jobs in a country where making anything is triple the price and opens you up to extortion by the Mafia running the white house. Most major manufacturers have plants in Mexico, those plants will be getting much bigger in the next four years and beyond. Eventually Pablo will go back to Mexico and get a better job than he can get here, and the Communist-command-economy white nationalist crowd will be left lying in the bed they just royally shit as boomers drop like flies with no young people to replace them.
If Hyundai was making cars in america why not hire US citizens ? How do they pay non citizens benefits ect. were they breaking the law ? How many Illegals work for Hyundai plants in South Korea ? How many Illegals do South Korea have in their country ? The answer is pretty close to zero same as China , Japan and so on . If they don’t allow Illegals working in plants in Korea why should they in this country . Go sneak into many other countries and see what happens many don’t tolerate it .
They’re contractors on visas, so they’re not long term workers. These guys would be around for a few weeks at a plant and then jet home because they’re basically representing other business. The job for them is to assess what their bosses need to hear and go, that’s it. Generally you see these guys cycle since again, they’re on visas. The only reason you don’t see this at other plants is because Germany would be pissed over this and we know it. They’re not stealing American jobs because Americans don’t fucking work for business in South Korea. South Korean seatbelt and electrical harness makers (probably guys from Foxconn too) won’t be hiring Americans to do these jobs, they’ll just leave. Go on and drive all these business away, look how great it’s doing for the economy!
See this is the issue, morons run their mouths about industries they don’t work in. You have no idea how an auto plant works, I do. Americans are going to be a broke country at everyone’s mercy because of people like you.
Looks like many overstayed their work visas or entered the country illegally. According to the below article link, this enforcement resulted from an investigation that has taken months.
https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/immigration/largest-ever-workplace-raid-places-475-from-georgia-hyundai-plant-in-ice-custody
So basically they sat around, waited for their visas to run over, and then arrested them all the moment they could. Genius! I’m sure this will result in many American jobs since again, they’re all subcontractors for Korean manufacturers making components at home. Like the article states, these can even be subcontractors of other subcontractors since the amount of cooks around the pot with car components is massive. Especially with EVs, which require experts from the battery manufacturer, power harness manufacturer, and other parts we don’t have an industry for here to be present.
It’s not like Hyundai can just go buy these parts from non-existent or competing domestic manufacturers, so this will probably lead to them cutting investment and not hiring here as they shift away.
Really there’s no business reason not to shift away at this point. And anyone can feel free to prove me wrong here and explain why if I was Hyundai I shouldn’t just go where it’s more profitable. That’s the big issue. We live in a global economy with global supply lines. The era of America being the literal king of the world ended in the 90s, and acting like a petulant child to everyone else is a quick ticket to the bottom.
Where the hell is the human resource manager for this billion dollar operation to keep tabs on all employees?…crickets
That isn’t what you said at first. First you said (or implied in a very strong way) that they were here legally but on a special sort of visa. Now you are saying that they were not here legally, but try to distract from the change in what you said by making other points. This kills your credibility.
I think Hyundai is capable of keeping track of its employees’ visas if they wish to.
Also, Hyundai cars are absolute garbage.
They prob assumed Hyundai would protect them.
Isn’t Georgia a red state? They sound kinda blue in that article.
Yes, the rational choice is to build factories outside the borders of the USA. Apple already should be in their new world headquarters in Mexico City.
Question is what happens to us when we hit rock bottom. We manufacture relatively little as is, and the services industries propping us up are increasingly tanking because service generally requires the server not to be someone nobody wants to do business with.
I can see China essentially having the nation on a leash, if they don’t already given the rare earths and loans situations. But that’s not to say other countries won’t be in on it too, a thriving Mexico trying to undercut us would basically leave the USA in a similar situation to India where we’re begging anyone and everyone to come back. With very favorable terms to them and their citizens of course.
“Gestapo raid their plants.” Hyperbole much? I tuned out after that.
They are the baby gestapo, practicing on immigrants. When the immigrants are gone, ICE will not shrink, they’ll be trump’s private army to quell dissent.
Assuming he lives that long. Vance may try it, but he lacks charisma. ICE will get slaughtered by citizens if he sets them us.
https://apnews.com/live/donald-trump-news-updates-9-5-2025#00000199-1b2f-dd8d-a39f-5b7feb350000
Update on this: at least some of these were legal visa holders doing legal things legally. Expect companies to pull out fast.
Companies that spent billions to manufacture vehicles here are not going to pull up stakes and leave just because a some people have visa problems. That would be an insane business decision to flush billions down the toilet.
Instead they are going to hire more HR people and immigration lawyers and do a better job of making sure the visas are up to date.
It’s clear things have been lax for a long time on the visa front (companies and US immigration enforcement) and so many companies let employees get out of compliance. Rather the close down and move elsewhere, it’s much cheaper to get into compliance.
And pay any necessary bribes, lol.
Dear Leader will surely publish his own set of ‘correct’ figures
If you hear bad news, it means you aren’t shouting your praises of dear leader loud enough.
This is the beginning of the rapid unemployment acceleration phase to 5% and beyond. The interdependent US service sector economy is in fragile shape with high debt load and high daily living prices. 5 Sept 2025 was the 1982 13/32 of 33 year ACWI global equity peak valuation of the 33 year 2nd fractal. The emperor’s fine new clothes will have some transparency.
Monthly Change in Nonfarm payrolls is trending lower and lower and going to go below zero in a few quarters.
Yep, recession and with these employment numbers we can expect a rate cut from the fed to exacerbate inflation; combined its stagflation here and now.
Apparently almost everyone already has at least two jobs (and still can’t make ends meet), so job growth will be practically zero.
When I saw this report, I knew the Republicans would spin it as a needed rate cut. I saw one Republi-crat this morning arguing the economy was strong, but we need a rate cut. Go figure! Expect a rate cut and it won’t change anything, recession is here and hello 1970’s stagflation.
Black is white. War is peace. Slavery is freedom.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Don’t see how the numbers get better from here. Trump is the tariff Grinch that will steal Christmas so no point in hiring for the holiday season. I predict a black friday disaster in November.
Since I have so many people now asking me for a job, I decided to check out the labor market for some key positions and I noticed salaries going down across the board from the past few years to now. Not sure how much AI is impacting all of this but it sure doesn’t help the people looking for jobs.
Even if SCOTUS affirms the lower court ruling that tariffs are illegal, not sure how that helps anyone at this point. It’s likely Trump will find another way to screw up the economy.
Better start moving closer to those lifeboats when sailing on the Trumptanic.
Christmas became a pagan holiday decades ago.
I’ve got the wife on a short spending leash this year. She usually likes to go big for holidays.
Next month: oops, August was -54,000 jobs my bad!
No doubt.
Are you forgetting the 818,000 oops there were no new jobs created under Bidens 4 years ?????? Pretty sure Mr Shedlock pointed that out
You people act like this is all trumps fault.
We have outsourced our manufacturing for the last 45 years. And yes Republicans are just as much or more to blame for that I give you. Apparently that little guy from Texas you made fun of 40 years ago about that giant sucking sound was a lot smarter than everyone thought.
I’m shocked I tell you, shocked that there are less & less jobs created.
Apparently the world was so good before Trump came around in 2016.
You have some choices..
Maybe try to assassinate him again, maybe the 3rd times a charm for you folks
Maybe come up with some ideas to help fix our economy & trade imbalances and ever increasing debt. And sure, Trump just added another trillion. But WTF did democrats not ever want to spend more money? Ok, so Trumps as bad as you guys now, great.
And you have perfected the art of “shutting down the government” Good, shut the fucking thing down, I call your bluff
How about giving the rest of us a choice other than a woman that cant put 2 sentences together that was a mistress to a married governor and couldn’t run a childs lemonade stand.
You morons created Trump
Jacob Frey is on-deck.
That was a lot of Democrat-bashing to Randocalrissian’s quip that next month’s numbers will be revised lower as well LOL
Sorry you’ve had such a bad day (or life?). Maybe you should go for a walk in the woods, smoke a blunt or entice your wife into some afternoon canoodling. But man, take it easy on yourself!
You have the cutest boo boo face.
You worship a moron created by morons.
Gold star for you!